Stock market today: S&P 500 slides on economic worries; Tesla hits closing record
Mitt Romney became the first non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. The day before the New Hampshire primary, a Suffolk University tracking poll had Romney at 37%, Ron Paul 18% and Jon Huntsman 16%.
It ended up:
Romney 39
Paul 23
Huntsman 17
Santorum 9
Gingrich 9
As the candidates all moved to South Carolina for the Jan. 21 primary there, one that promises to weed out at least two of the candidates, an American Research Group poll has:
Romney 31
Gingrich 24
Santorum 24
CNN/Time/ORC
Romney 37
Santorum 19
Gingrich 18
In an early look at Florida, Jan. 31, a Quinnipiac Univ. survey has Romney at 36%, Gingrich at 24%, Santorum at 16% and Paul at 10%.
And just a reminder. Until April 1, almost all the states will award delegates proportionally, after which many will hold winner-take-all primaries.
CNN/ORC nationwide poll of Republican voters [released Friday]
Romney 34
Gingrich 18
Paul 15
Santorum 15
Perry 9
Huntsman 4
[In December, this same survey had Romney and Gingrich tied at 28, Paul at 14 and Santorum with 4.]
In his victory speech in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney laid out his case against President Obama….in part…
“The middle class has been crushed. Nearly 24 million of our fellow Americans are still out of work, struggling to find work, or have just stopped looking. The median income has dropped 10 percent in four years. Soldiers returning from the front lines are waiting in unemployment lines. Our debt is too high and our opportunities too few. And this president wakes up every morning, looks out across America and is proud to announce, ‘It could be worse.’ It could be worse? Is that what it means to be an American? It could be worse?
“The president has run out of ideas. Now, he’s running out of excuses.
“He doesn’t see the need for overwhelming American military superiority. I will insist on a military so powerful no one would think of challenging it. He chastises friends like Israel; I’ll stand with our friends.
“President Obama wants to put free enterprise on trial. In the last few days, we have seen some desperate Republicans join forces with him. This is such a mistake for our party and for our nation. This country already has a leader who divides us with the bitter politics of envy. We must offer an alternative vision. I stand ready to lead us down a different path, where we are lifted up by our desire to succeed, not dragged down by a resentment of success. In these difficult times, we cannot abandon the core values that define us as unique – We are One Nation, Under God. Make no mistake, in this campaign, I will offer the American ideals of economic freedom a clear and unapologetic defense.” [Jennifer Rubin / Washington Post]
I watched the speech. It was powerful. He just needs to keep repeating it.
But I’m not a Mitt Romney fan. I’m like so many Republicans, disgusted with our choices. And between both the Republicans and the Democrats, I keep thinking, ‘330 million people in this country and the last 20 years this great nation has produced Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama.’ What are we thinking, people?
Then again, Rome had a lot of lousy rulers before it finally collapsed.
Oops. Bad analogy.
One topic ticks me off is the whole Romney / private-equity situation. For starters, there is a distinct difference between venture capitalists and private-equity, but the commentators and politicians are blurring the two.
It’s true…some firms do a little of both, but for the most part, private-equity players buy up troubled companies, remove them from the public market, restructure ‘em, which almost always involves layoffs, and then hope to bring them back out in an IPO as a successful company and make a fortune. Nothing wrong with that. Many of these companies were dying and on a respirator to begin with. Some still do die after private-equity funds have been expended. (Stuff) happens. Heck, I often forget that I myself once bought a dying operation, in the early years of StocksandNews. I injected my own capital into it, thought by sheer force of personality and incentives that I could turn things around (plus there were cost savings for my own business involved), but it still died. I made two mistakes. I never should have acquired it and I did a lousy job once I took over. Luckily most of the 13 employees found other work quickly.
Where private-equity has gotten a bad name, though, is when they gobble up a company and then pile massive amounts of debt on it, which almost always leads to a final collapse, only the p-e partners have paid themselves large dividends and profits while the workers get screwed.
[Venture capitalists, on the other hand, as classically defined, are investing in new businesses before they go public, like those who’ve been investing in Facebook. For every two or three where the VC guys are taking a flyer and it doesn’t pan out, you hope you get one that succeeds more than enough to make up for the failures. VCs, for their stake in the business, get board seats and a say in the direction of the start-up.]
Walter Hamilton of the Los Angeles Times cites a study of 3,200 private-equity deals over a 25-year period that showed it was neither a big job creator nor a big job destroyer.
But when one looks at the history of Bain Capital, where Mitt hung out all those years, it has had a solid reputation. Sure, lots of losers. Lots of lost jobs. But also some big successes whose names you all know by now; like Staples, Sports Authority and Domino’s Pizza, though for Romney to then say he has helped create 100,000 jobs is more than a bit disingenuous.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“Mr. Romney needs to rise above the personal and base his claim to office on a defense of the system of free enterprise that has enriched America over the decades and is now under assault. Mr. Obama will attack Mr. Romney as Gordon Gekko because the President can’t win by touting his own economic record. Mr. Romney’s GOP opponents (with the admirable exception of Rick Santorum*) are embarrassing themselves by taking the Obama line, but Mr. Romney should view this as an opportunity to stake his campaign on something larger and far more important that his own business expertise.”
*Once again the Journal ignores Ron Paul, who also hasn’t criticized Romney on the issue.
Robert Samuelson / Washington Post
“For Mitt Romney, it’s the best of times and the worst of times. While his New Hampshire win brings him closer to the Republican nomination, his campaign narrative against President Obama may be unraveling. The plot is simple: With a comatose economy and stubbornly high unemployment, Romney’s private-sector experience makes him a better job creator than Obama. There are problems. Not only does the economy seem to be strengthening, but Romney’s business background is being turned against him. By Republicans, no less.
“We understand the achievements of Bill Gates and Steve Jobs. They created enterprises that employ thousands and sell to millions. But private-equity, Romney’s specialty? That’s more complex and confusing. Texas Gov. Rick Perry calls Romney a ‘vulture capitalist.’ Former Utah governor Jon Huntsman says Romney ‘enjoys firing people.’ Is Romney’s business experience a virtue or a vice?...
“It’s not just that a president’s job extends beyond bolstering business. Romney belongs to the class of the super-rich, and private-equity – whatever its value – benefits from unjustifiably low taxes. Romney can easily be typecast as a coldblooded, numbers-crunching ‘Wall Street type’ disconnected from most Americans’ hopes and frustrations.
“That his Republican rivals, of all people, have brought this charge is actually an unintended gift. If Romney becomes the nominee, Democrats will escalate the assault. Romney now has the chance to defuse these attacks – or show that he can’t. Defending his economic views in today’s anti-Wall Street climate will test his political skills as little else.”
Personally, last Saturday I went to Windham High School while in New Hampshire to see Sen. Rand Paul, who some say went around the state cleaning up after his father, which isn’t exactly fair but I’ll say this…I like Rand Paul.
Yes, until I saw him in an interview with Wolf Blitzer the other day, referenced last week in this space, I have harshly criticized the senator, particularly when he was running for the senate in 2010. I said he wasn’t ready for prime time. He wasn’t. But he won.
Well, let’s just say he’s a quick study. He will run for president in 2016, depending on the 2012 results, of course. He is also a much better presenter of his father’s ideas.
It hit me the other day that Ron and Rand Paul are in some respects similar to Jean-Marie and Marine Le Pen in France. The son and daughter are finding ways to moderate their fathers’ harsher tone and it will translate to a broader audience.
Charles Krauthammer / Washington Post
“There are two stories coming out of New Hampshire. The big story is Mitt Romney. The bigger one is Ron Paul.
“Romney won a major victory with nearly 40 percent of the vote, 16 points ahead of No. 2….
“But the bigger winner was Ron Paul. He got 21 percent in Iowa, 23 in New Hampshire, the only candidate other than Romney to do well with two very different electorates, one more evangelical and socially conservative, the other more moderate and fiscally conservative.
“Paul commands a strong, energetic, highly committed following. And he is unlike any of the other candidates. They’re out to win. He admits he doesn’t see himself in the Oval Office. They’re one-time, self-contained enterprises aiming for the White House. Paul is out there to build a movement that will long outlive this campaign.
“Paul is less a candidate than a ‘cause,’ to cite his election-night New Hampshire speech. Which is why that speech was the only one by a losing candidate that was sincerely, almost giddily joyous. The other candidates had to pretend they were happy with their results.
“Paul was genuinely delighted with his, because, after a quarter-century in the wilderness, he’s within reach of putting his cherished cause on the map. Libertarianism will have gone from the fringes – those hopeless, pathetic third-party runs – to a position of prominence in a major party….
“His goal is to make himself leader of the opposition – within the Republican Party….
“Paul won’t quit before the Republican convention in Tampa…His goal is to have the second-most delegates, a position of leverage from which to influence the platform and demand a prime-time speaking slot – before deigning to support the nominee at the end….
“The Democratic convention will be a tightly scripted TV extravaganza extolling the Prince and his wise and kindly rule. The Republican convention could conceivably feature a major address by Paul calling for the abolition of the Fed, FEMA and the CIA; American withdrawal from everywhere; acquiescence to the Iranian bomb – and perhaps even Paul’s opposition to a border fence lest it be used to keep Americans in. Not exactly the steady, measured, reassuring message a Republican convention might wish to convey. For libertarianism, however, it would be a historic moment: mainstream recognition at last.
“Put aside your own view of libertarianism or of Paul himself. I see libertarianism as an important critique of the Leviathan state, not a governing philosophy. As for Paul himself, I find him a principled, somewhat wacky, highly engaging eccentric. But regardless of my feelings or yours, the plain fact is that Paul is nurturing his movement toward visibility and legitimacy.
“Paul is 76. He knows he’ll never enter the promised land. But he’s clearing the path for son Rand, his better placed (Senate vs. House), more moderate, more articulate successor.
“And it matters not whether you find amusement in libertarians practicing dynastic succession. What Paul has already wrought is a signal achievement, the biggest story yet of this presidential campaign.”
Meanwhile, in full campaign mode in Chicago the other night, President Obama declared:
“I promise you…change will come.”
Then on Friday, he called on Congress to give him authority to consolidate six agencies dealing with trade and commerce. The Commerce Department would be eliminated and the Small Business Administration would be given a cabinet-level slot, which is an absurd idea. [There are too many cabinet members as it is.]
Suddenly the campaign has a new mantra… “Rethink, Reform, Remake our Government.”
The move will supposedly save $3 billion over ten years and the jobs lost will be through attrition. As you know, we need a deficit reduction package of $4 trillion or so to be taken seriously by investors around the world.
Whatever. The president comes out with his plan to reshape government just as Republican presidential candidates are talking about shrinking the size and cost of government as well, though on a far grander scale. It’s all kind of funny. Once again Obama has laid a little trap.
Michael A. Walsh / New York Post
“(With the focus on Iowa and New Hampshire), the real action has been going on under the media radar in Washington, where:
“A rogue Senate, under the feckless majority leader, Harry Reid, has not passed a budget resolution since April 29, 2009 – nearly a thousand days. Since then, the government has been funded under a series of continuing resolutions and other gimmicks. The Senate adamantly blocked consideration of Paul Ryan’s ‘Path to Prosperity’ budget, which passed the Republican-controlled House back in April 2011.
“Dereliction of duty or all part of the plan? Obama’s strategy this year – in addition to demonizing whichever Republican gets the nod to challenge him – will be to run against a ‘do-nothing’ Congress, a la Harry Truman in 1948. But in this case the ‘nothing’ is being ‘done’ by the Democrats, who have gone to the mattresses in their battle to preserve the entitlement state.
“As a result, the nation closed out 2011 with the total debt at an astounding $15.22 trillion, or more than 100% of GDP. We’re less than $14 billion (chump change these days) from having to raise the debt ceiling yet again – a farce that apparently will continue until a responsible Congress, not to mention a new president, takes office next January. And maybe not even then, given the corrupt state of a permanent governing class that bipartisanly enriches itself via ‘public service’ by trading on insider information.”
In a move that was buried in the other news of the week, William Daley stepped down as White House chief of staff, to be replaced by budget director Jack Lew. Daley supposedly is staying on through the reelection campaign as an advisor. His one year in the position, since the 2010 mid-term elections, after which he replaced Rahm Emanuel, was largely a waste.
Last week I quoted Moises Naim in the Financial Times who stated “Inequality will be the central theme of 2012. It has always existed and is not going away, but this year it will top the global agenda of voters, protesters and politicians running for office in the many important elections scheduled.”
This week, Annie Gowen of the Washington Post discussed the results of a Pew Research Center survey in America that found “About 2/3s of the public now believes there are strong conflicts between the rich and poor in America, making class a likelier source of tension than traditional flash points of race or nationality.”
The percentage has been rising rapidly, owing to the Occupy Wall Street movement. But the way OWS has conducted itself, it isn’t deserving of the credit.
First Lady Michelle Obama gave an interview to CBS News’ Gayle King and dismissed the notion that she was “some angry black woman” after a new book , “The Obamas,” described some of the tension with the president’s aides.
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta formally announced the U.S. is reducing its force in Europe. Currently it maintains 80,000 from all of the services and the elimination of two Army brigades and their noncombat support units will cut this by about 10,000 to 15,000. European officials are concerned. They can get over it.
Actually, as Panetta said, the presence won’t change much at all because of his idea of rotating combat brigades through the area on training missions, which would augment the permanent presence.
We should cut to 40,000, all services. Europe is spoiled beyond belief at this point. Of course they’ve also gotten a break on the budget front, but despite the tough economic times, they are going to have to increase their own defense spending eventually.
According to data compiled by the National Weather Service, lightning killed fewer Americans in 2011 than any year on record, even as tornadoes killed more than 500. Only 26 died as a result of a lightning strike. The average is 55 a year.
In the 1940s, even as the USA’s population was less than half what it is today, lightning killed more than 300 Americans each year, on average. In 1942 alone, 432 died, which is kind of remarkable when you think about it. The difference is all about public education. [Doyle Rice / USA TODAY]
And for the first time in 45 years, homicide is not among the 15 leading causes of death in the United States. According to data compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which looks at death certificates provided by the states, of the 2.4 million total deaths reported in 2010, there were 16,065 homicides, down from 16,799 a year earlier.
Heart disease and cancer, the most common causes of death, accounted for 47% of all deaths last year.
Between 1990 and 2010, homicides in New York dropped 76%; they were down 70% in Los Angeles and 49% in Chicago.
Causes of Death in America
1. Heart disease
2. Cancer
3. Chronic lower respiratory diseases
4. Stroke
5. Accidents
6. Alzheimer’s
7. Diabetes
8. Kidney disease
9. Influenza/pneumonia
10. Suicide
16. Homicide
[Kevin Johnson / USA TODAY]
Good news…India has gone a full year without recording a single new case of polio, a huge achievement, but the pressure needs to be kept on parents to keep immunizing their children. 26 million babies are born each year in the country and it won’t be truly polio-free until at least three years have passed without a new case. Polio is still endemic in neighboring Pakistan and Afghanistan.
This gives me an excuse to recognize Jonas Salk again. Did you ever think about a top ten list of people in the history of the world who made a positive difference? Salk has to be on it.
Sign of the Apocalypse…from the New York Daily News:
“A study of bushmeat smuggled into the city shows it could spread disease or even spark pandemics, researchers said Tuesday.
“Dr. Denise McAloose, chief pathologist for the New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society, said no one had tested illegal bushmeat for pathogens before the study.
“Animal parts seized by custom agents at Kennedy Airport were routinely destroyed until the WCS partnered with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 2008 for the research….
“Scientists found simian foamy viruses and two types of herpesviruses in the animal parts tested.
“While the herpesviruses detected are not considered dangerous to people, related viruses cause disease in humans.
“Researchers say the results show potential danger.
“ ‘Diseases such as HIV, Ebola, swine flu, avian flu and monkey pox all originated in wildlife,’ McAloose said. ‘We don’t know where the next disease like that might occur.’
“Some animal skulls, hands, arms and torsos were still fresh in coolers when confiscated.”
So what’s getting through? I just hope I don’t die of monkey pox myself. That would kind of suck.
Speaking of which, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the group responsible for the Doomsday Clock, moved it to 11:55 p.m. Two years ago, the clock was moved back to 11:54 p.m., after the organization became convinced climate change talks were making progress.
But now the group comprised of Nobel laureates, scientists and others, feels efforts to increase energy production in the 21st century to deal with rising population needs are falling short.
Personally, I normally go to bed well before 11:55 p.m. so I hope to be sound asleep when the world goes poof! I’m assuming that’s 11:55 p.m. ET, so if you’re in the Central, Mountain or Pacific time zones you really need to plan accordingly. Then again, we all shouldn’t have to worry until they move it to, like, 11:58.
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
God bless America.
Gold closed at $1630
Oil, $98.70
Returns for the week 1/9-1/13
Dow Jones +0.5% [12422]
S&P 500 +0.9% [1289]
S&P MidCap +1.7%
Russell 2000 +1.9%
Nasdaq +1.4% [2710]
Returns for the period 1/1/12-1/13/12
Dow Jones +1.7%
S&P 500 +2.5%
S&P MidCap +3.1%
Russell 2000 +3.1%
Nasdaq +4.0%
Bulls 51.1
Bears 29.8 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
It ended up:
Romney 39
Paul 23
Huntsman 17
Santorum 9
Gingrich 9
As the candidates all moved to South Carolina for the Jan. 21 primary there, one that promises to weed out at least two of the candidates, an American Research Group poll has:
Romney 31
Gingrich 24
Santorum 24
CNN/Time/ORC
Romney 37
Santorum 19
Gingrich 18
In an early look at Florida, Jan. 31, a Quinnipiac Univ. survey has Romney at 36%, Gingrich at 24%, Santorum at 16% and Paul at 10%.
And just a reminder. Until April 1, almost all the states will award delegates proportionally, after which many will hold winner-take-all primaries.
CNN/ORC nationwide poll of Republican voters [released Friday]
Romney 34
Gingrich 18
Paul 15
Santorum 15
Perry 9
Huntsman 4
[In December, this same survey had Romney and Gingrich tied at 28, Paul at 14 and Santorum with 4.]
In his victory speech in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney laid out his case against President Obama….in part…
“The middle class has been crushed. Nearly 24 million of our fellow Americans are still out of work, struggling to find work, or have just stopped looking. The median income has dropped 10 percent in four years. Soldiers returning from the front lines are waiting in unemployment lines. Our debt is too high and our opportunities too few. And this president wakes up every morning, looks out across America and is proud to announce, ‘It could be worse.’ It could be worse? Is that what it means to be an American? It could be worse?
“The president has run out of ideas. Now, he’s running out of excuses.
“He doesn’t see the need for overwhelming American military superiority. I will insist on a military so powerful no one would think of challenging it. He chastises friends like Israel; I’ll stand with our friends.
“President Obama wants to put free enterprise on trial. In the last few days, we have seen some desperate Republicans join forces with him. This is such a mistake for our party and for our nation. This country already has a leader who divides us with the bitter politics of envy. We must offer an alternative vision. I stand ready to lead us down a different path, where we are lifted up by our desire to succeed, not dragged down by a resentment of success. In these difficult times, we cannot abandon the core values that define us as unique – We are One Nation, Under God. Make no mistake, in this campaign, I will offer the American ideals of economic freedom a clear and unapologetic defense.” [Jennifer Rubin / Washington Post]
I watched the speech. It was powerful. He just needs to keep repeating it.
But I’m not a Mitt Romney fan. I’m like so many Republicans, disgusted with our choices. And between both the Republicans and the Democrats, I keep thinking, ‘330 million people in this country and the last 20 years this great nation has produced Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama.’ What are we thinking, people?
Then again, Rome had a lot of lousy rulers before it finally collapsed.
Oops. Bad analogy.
One topic ticks me off is the whole Romney / private-equity situation. For starters, there is a distinct difference between venture capitalists and private-equity, but the commentators and politicians are blurring the two.
It’s true…some firms do a little of both, but for the most part, private-equity players buy up troubled companies, remove them from the public market, restructure ‘em, which almost always involves layoffs, and then hope to bring them back out in an IPO as a successful company and make a fortune. Nothing wrong with that. Many of these companies were dying and on a respirator to begin with. Some still do die after private-equity funds have been expended. (Stuff) happens. Heck, I often forget that I myself once bought a dying operation, in the early years of StocksandNews. I injected my own capital into it, thought by sheer force of personality and incentives that I could turn things around (plus there were cost savings for my own business involved), but it still died. I made two mistakes. I never should have acquired it and I did a lousy job once I took over. Luckily most of the 13 employees found other work quickly.
Where private-equity has gotten a bad name, though, is when they gobble up a company and then pile massive amounts of debt on it, which almost always leads to a final collapse, only the p-e partners have paid themselves large dividends and profits while the workers get screwed.
[Venture capitalists, on the other hand, as classically defined, are investing in new businesses before they go public, like those who’ve been investing in Facebook. For every two or three where the VC guys are taking a flyer and it doesn’t pan out, you hope you get one that succeeds more than enough to make up for the failures. VCs, for their stake in the business, get board seats and a say in the direction of the start-up.]
Walter Hamilton of the Los Angeles Times cites a study of 3,200 private-equity deals over a 25-year period that showed it was neither a big job creator nor a big job destroyer.
But when one looks at the history of Bain Capital, where Mitt hung out all those years, it has had a solid reputation. Sure, lots of losers. Lots of lost jobs. But also some big successes whose names you all know by now; like Staples, Sports Authority and Domino’s Pizza, though for Romney to then say he has helped create 100,000 jobs is more than a bit disingenuous.
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“Mr. Romney needs to rise above the personal and base his claim to office on a defense of the system of free enterprise that has enriched America over the decades and is now under assault. Mr. Obama will attack Mr. Romney as Gordon Gekko because the President can’t win by touting his own economic record. Mr. Romney’s GOP opponents (with the admirable exception of Rick Santorum*) are embarrassing themselves by taking the Obama line, but Mr. Romney should view this as an opportunity to stake his campaign on something larger and far more important that his own business expertise.”
*Once again the Journal ignores Ron Paul, who also hasn’t criticized Romney on the issue.
Robert Samuelson / Washington Post
“For Mitt Romney, it’s the best of times and the worst of times. While his New Hampshire win brings him closer to the Republican nomination, his campaign narrative against President Obama may be unraveling. The plot is simple: With a comatose economy and stubbornly high unemployment, Romney’s private-sector experience makes him a better job creator than Obama. There are problems. Not only does the economy seem to be strengthening, but Romney’s business background is being turned against him. By Republicans, no less.
“We understand the achievements of Bill Gates and Steve Jobs. They created enterprises that employ thousands and sell to millions. But private-equity, Romney’s specialty? That’s more complex and confusing. Texas Gov. Rick Perry calls Romney a ‘vulture capitalist.’ Former Utah governor Jon Huntsman says Romney ‘enjoys firing people.’ Is Romney’s business experience a virtue or a vice?...
“It’s not just that a president’s job extends beyond bolstering business. Romney belongs to the class of the super-rich, and private-equity – whatever its value – benefits from unjustifiably low taxes. Romney can easily be typecast as a coldblooded, numbers-crunching ‘Wall Street type’ disconnected from most Americans’ hopes and frustrations.
“That his Republican rivals, of all people, have brought this charge is actually an unintended gift. If Romney becomes the nominee, Democrats will escalate the assault. Romney now has the chance to defuse these attacks – or show that he can’t. Defending his economic views in today’s anti-Wall Street climate will test his political skills as little else.”
Personally, last Saturday I went to Windham High School while in New Hampshire to see Sen. Rand Paul, who some say went around the state cleaning up after his father, which isn’t exactly fair but I’ll say this…I like Rand Paul.
Yes, until I saw him in an interview with Wolf Blitzer the other day, referenced last week in this space, I have harshly criticized the senator, particularly when he was running for the senate in 2010. I said he wasn’t ready for prime time. He wasn’t. But he won.
Well, let’s just say he’s a quick study. He will run for president in 2016, depending on the 2012 results, of course. He is also a much better presenter of his father’s ideas.
It hit me the other day that Ron and Rand Paul are in some respects similar to Jean-Marie and Marine Le Pen in France. The son and daughter are finding ways to moderate their fathers’ harsher tone and it will translate to a broader audience.
Charles Krauthammer / Washington Post
“There are two stories coming out of New Hampshire. The big story is Mitt Romney. The bigger one is Ron Paul.
“Romney won a major victory with nearly 40 percent of the vote, 16 points ahead of No. 2….
“But the bigger winner was Ron Paul. He got 21 percent in Iowa, 23 in New Hampshire, the only candidate other than Romney to do well with two very different electorates, one more evangelical and socially conservative, the other more moderate and fiscally conservative.
“Paul commands a strong, energetic, highly committed following. And he is unlike any of the other candidates. They’re out to win. He admits he doesn’t see himself in the Oval Office. They’re one-time, self-contained enterprises aiming for the White House. Paul is out there to build a movement that will long outlive this campaign.
“Paul is less a candidate than a ‘cause,’ to cite his election-night New Hampshire speech. Which is why that speech was the only one by a losing candidate that was sincerely, almost giddily joyous. The other candidates had to pretend they were happy with their results.
“Paul was genuinely delighted with his, because, after a quarter-century in the wilderness, he’s within reach of putting his cherished cause on the map. Libertarianism will have gone from the fringes – those hopeless, pathetic third-party runs – to a position of prominence in a major party….
“His goal is to make himself leader of the opposition – within the Republican Party….
“Paul won’t quit before the Republican convention in Tampa…His goal is to have the second-most delegates, a position of leverage from which to influence the platform and demand a prime-time speaking slot – before deigning to support the nominee at the end….
“The Democratic convention will be a tightly scripted TV extravaganza extolling the Prince and his wise and kindly rule. The Republican convention could conceivably feature a major address by Paul calling for the abolition of the Fed, FEMA and the CIA; American withdrawal from everywhere; acquiescence to the Iranian bomb – and perhaps even Paul’s opposition to a border fence lest it be used to keep Americans in. Not exactly the steady, measured, reassuring message a Republican convention might wish to convey. For libertarianism, however, it would be a historic moment: mainstream recognition at last.
“Put aside your own view of libertarianism or of Paul himself. I see libertarianism as an important critique of the Leviathan state, not a governing philosophy. As for Paul himself, I find him a principled, somewhat wacky, highly engaging eccentric. But regardless of my feelings or yours, the plain fact is that Paul is nurturing his movement toward visibility and legitimacy.
“Paul is 76. He knows he’ll never enter the promised land. But he’s clearing the path for son Rand, his better placed (Senate vs. House), more moderate, more articulate successor.
“And it matters not whether you find amusement in libertarians practicing dynastic succession. What Paul has already wrought is a signal achievement, the biggest story yet of this presidential campaign.”
Meanwhile, in full campaign mode in Chicago the other night, President Obama declared:
“I promise you…change will come.”
Then on Friday, he called on Congress to give him authority to consolidate six agencies dealing with trade and commerce. The Commerce Department would be eliminated and the Small Business Administration would be given a cabinet-level slot, which is an absurd idea. [There are too many cabinet members as it is.]
Suddenly the campaign has a new mantra… “Rethink, Reform, Remake our Government.”
The move will supposedly save $3 billion over ten years and the jobs lost will be through attrition. As you know, we need a deficit reduction package of $4 trillion or so to be taken seriously by investors around the world.
Whatever. The president comes out with his plan to reshape government just as Republican presidential candidates are talking about shrinking the size and cost of government as well, though on a far grander scale. It’s all kind of funny. Once again Obama has laid a little trap.
Michael A. Walsh / New York Post
“(With the focus on Iowa and New Hampshire), the real action has been going on under the media radar in Washington, where:
“A rogue Senate, under the feckless majority leader, Harry Reid, has not passed a budget resolution since April 29, 2009 – nearly a thousand days. Since then, the government has been funded under a series of continuing resolutions and other gimmicks. The Senate adamantly blocked consideration of Paul Ryan’s ‘Path to Prosperity’ budget, which passed the Republican-controlled House back in April 2011.
“Dereliction of duty or all part of the plan? Obama’s strategy this year – in addition to demonizing whichever Republican gets the nod to challenge him – will be to run against a ‘do-nothing’ Congress, a la Harry Truman in 1948. But in this case the ‘nothing’ is being ‘done’ by the Democrats, who have gone to the mattresses in their battle to preserve the entitlement state.
“As a result, the nation closed out 2011 with the total debt at an astounding $15.22 trillion, or more than 100% of GDP. We’re less than $14 billion (chump change these days) from having to raise the debt ceiling yet again – a farce that apparently will continue until a responsible Congress, not to mention a new president, takes office next January. And maybe not even then, given the corrupt state of a permanent governing class that bipartisanly enriches itself via ‘public service’ by trading on insider information.”
In a move that was buried in the other news of the week, William Daley stepped down as White House chief of staff, to be replaced by budget director Jack Lew. Daley supposedly is staying on through the reelection campaign as an advisor. His one year in the position, since the 2010 mid-term elections, after which he replaced Rahm Emanuel, was largely a waste.
Last week I quoted Moises Naim in the Financial Times who stated “Inequality will be the central theme of 2012. It has always existed and is not going away, but this year it will top the global agenda of voters, protesters and politicians running for office in the many important elections scheduled.”
This week, Annie Gowen of the Washington Post discussed the results of a Pew Research Center survey in America that found “About 2/3s of the public now believes there are strong conflicts between the rich and poor in America, making class a likelier source of tension than traditional flash points of race or nationality.”
The percentage has been rising rapidly, owing to the Occupy Wall Street movement. But the way OWS has conducted itself, it isn’t deserving of the credit.
First Lady Michelle Obama gave an interview to CBS News’ Gayle King and dismissed the notion that she was “some angry black woman” after a new book , “The Obamas,” described some of the tension with the president’s aides.
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta formally announced the U.S. is reducing its force in Europe. Currently it maintains 80,000 from all of the services and the elimination of two Army brigades and their noncombat support units will cut this by about 10,000 to 15,000. European officials are concerned. They can get over it.
Actually, as Panetta said, the presence won’t change much at all because of his idea of rotating combat brigades through the area on training missions, which would augment the permanent presence.
We should cut to 40,000, all services. Europe is spoiled beyond belief at this point. Of course they’ve also gotten a break on the budget front, but despite the tough economic times, they are going to have to increase their own defense spending eventually.
According to data compiled by the National Weather Service, lightning killed fewer Americans in 2011 than any year on record, even as tornadoes killed more than 500. Only 26 died as a result of a lightning strike. The average is 55 a year.
In the 1940s, even as the USA’s population was less than half what it is today, lightning killed more than 300 Americans each year, on average. In 1942 alone, 432 died, which is kind of remarkable when you think about it. The difference is all about public education. [Doyle Rice / USA TODAY]
And for the first time in 45 years, homicide is not among the 15 leading causes of death in the United States. According to data compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which looks at death certificates provided by the states, of the 2.4 million total deaths reported in 2010, there were 16,065 homicides, down from 16,799 a year earlier.
Heart disease and cancer, the most common causes of death, accounted for 47% of all deaths last year.
Between 1990 and 2010, homicides in New York dropped 76%; they were down 70% in Los Angeles and 49% in Chicago.
Causes of Death in America
1. Heart disease
2. Cancer
3. Chronic lower respiratory diseases
4. Stroke
5. Accidents
6. Alzheimer’s
7. Diabetes
8. Kidney disease
9. Influenza/pneumonia
10. Suicide
16. Homicide
[Kevin Johnson / USA TODAY]
Good news…India has gone a full year without recording a single new case of polio, a huge achievement, but the pressure needs to be kept on parents to keep immunizing their children. 26 million babies are born each year in the country and it won’t be truly polio-free until at least three years have passed without a new case. Polio is still endemic in neighboring Pakistan and Afghanistan.
This gives me an excuse to recognize Jonas Salk again. Did you ever think about a top ten list of people in the history of the world who made a positive difference? Salk has to be on it.
Sign of the Apocalypse…from the New York Daily News:
“A study of bushmeat smuggled into the city shows it could spread disease or even spark pandemics, researchers said Tuesday.
“Dr. Denise McAloose, chief pathologist for the New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society, said no one had tested illegal bushmeat for pathogens before the study.
“Animal parts seized by custom agents at Kennedy Airport were routinely destroyed until the WCS partnered with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 2008 for the research….
“Scientists found simian foamy viruses and two types of herpesviruses in the animal parts tested.
“While the herpesviruses detected are not considered dangerous to people, related viruses cause disease in humans.
“Researchers say the results show potential danger.
“ ‘Diseases such as HIV, Ebola, swine flu, avian flu and monkey pox all originated in wildlife,’ McAloose said. ‘We don’t know where the next disease like that might occur.’
“Some animal skulls, hands, arms and torsos were still fresh in coolers when confiscated.”
So what’s getting through? I just hope I don’t die of monkey pox myself. That would kind of suck.
Speaking of which, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the group responsible for the Doomsday Clock, moved it to 11:55 p.m. Two years ago, the clock was moved back to 11:54 p.m., after the organization became convinced climate change talks were making progress.
But now the group comprised of Nobel laureates, scientists and others, feels efforts to increase energy production in the 21st century to deal with rising population needs are falling short.
Personally, I normally go to bed well before 11:55 p.m. so I hope to be sound asleep when the world goes poof! I’m assuming that’s 11:55 p.m. ET, so if you’re in the Central, Mountain or Pacific time zones you really need to plan accordingly. Then again, we all shouldn’t have to worry until they move it to, like, 11:58.
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
God bless America.
Gold closed at $1630
Oil, $98.70
Returns for the week 1/9-1/13
Dow Jones +0.5% [12422]
S&P 500 +0.9% [1289]
S&P MidCap +1.7%
Russell 2000 +1.9%
Nasdaq +1.4% [2710]
Returns for the period 1/1/12-1/13/12
Dow Jones +1.7%
S&P 500 +2.5%
S&P MidCap +3.1%
Russell 2000 +3.1%
Nasdaq +4.0%
Bulls 51.1
Bears 29.8 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]