Week in Review Part III: Foreign Affairs

Iran: Iranians went to the polls on Friday to vote between bad and worse; the latter representing the parliamentary slate favored by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the former the candidates of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 3,400 were on the ballots for 290 seats in the Majlis, though at least another 1,000 were barred from running by the Guardian Council, which is comprised of the Sons of Satan (Rick Santorum knows their names). Of course the election is a joke, what with the two main opposition candidates, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karrubi, being under house arrest for more than a year.

When it comes to the Iranian nuclear crisis, though, it’s all about the visit on Monday between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, along with parsing the words each are making in speeches at the pro-Israel lobby, American Israeli Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, over the coming days. Israeli leaders want President Obama to lay all his cards on the table…all the “options.” Israel is frustrated that it doesn’t know what the White House considers to be the real “red lines”. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey earlier called Iran a “rational actor,” which many can’t fathom. And U.S. intelligence agencies are once again saying that Iran has not decided to take the next step and build a nuclear bomb; rather it is content to continue to enrich uranium to 20 percent (below weapons grade) while preserving its own options.

But late in the week, General Norton Schwartz, the U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff, told reporters that plans had been drawn up outlining how Washington could join a potential Israeli air offensive should Israel pursue that path. “What we can do, you wouldn’t want to be in the area,” Schwartz said of the options. Supposedly they include going after the Revolutionary Guard and its al-Quds force, along with installations of the Ministry of Intelligence and Security. Schwartz also said the latest version of America’s bunker-busting bombs was “operational.” This is significant; this being the weapon of choice against the likes of the Fordow nuclear processing plant built into a mountain outside the holy city of Qom. U.S. military planners, according to the Washington Post’s Joby Warrick, are increasingly confident they can severely disrupt Fordow. I believe we overstate the ability of Iran to construct an impregnable facility.

And then late Friday, in an interview with The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg, President Obama tested out his talking points.

“I think that the Israeli government recognizes that, as president of the United States, I don’t bluff. I also don’t, as a matter of sound policy, go around advertising exactly what our intentions are. But I think both the Iranian and the Israeli governments recognize that when the United States says it is unacceptable for Iran to have a nuclear weapons, we mean what we say.”

Obama reiterated to Goldberg that “all options are on the table,” and that the final option is the “military component.” Obama then noted that sanctions organized by his administration had put Iran in a “world of hurt” that might force Iran to rethink its efforts to pursue a nuclear weapon.

“Without in any way being under an illusion about Iranian intentions, without in any way being naïve about the nature of that regime, they are self-interested,” Obama said. “It is possible for them to make a strategic calculation that, at minimum, pushes much further to the right whatever potential breakout capacity they may have, and that may turn out to be the best decision for Israel’s security.”

This is clearly much of what Netanyahu wants to hear from the president directly, even as Obama is strongly encouraging Israel to still hold off at the same time, and we’ll see if the Israeli prime minister can pressure Obama into making a further public declaration that America is prepared to support an Israeli strike. The two are not currently slated to hold a joint news conference following their meeting but both sides are to issue statements. Republican Senator John McCain, who met with Netanyahu in Israel last week, said he had never seen an Israeli leader “that unhappy.” “He was angry,” McCain said. “And, frankly, I’ve never seen U.S.-Israel relations at this point.”   

In Israel itself, in a recent survey, 19% of Israelis support an attack against Iran without the backing of the United States, while 42% support a strike only if there is U.S. support. 32% oppose an attack regardless of the level of assistance from Washington.

Syria: In a major shift in policy, Russian Prime Minister, soon to be president again, Vladimir Putin said that Russia had no special relationship with Syrian President Bashar Assad and that it was up to Syrians to decide who should run the country. Putin said, “We need to make sure they stop killing each other.” Putin told the Times of London that he had been appalled by the brutal killing of Muammar Gaddafi and the atrocities committed in Libya. Putin called for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations between the parties.

Heretofore, both Russia and China, as two permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, had supported Syria, but on Thursday, both countries voted in favor of a statement deploring the decision by the Syrian government not to admit Baroness Amos, the UN’s human rights chief.

The White House said Thursday the situation in Homs was “horrific.” Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman added: “It’s important that the tipping point for the regime be reached quickly, because the longer the regime assaults the Syrian people, the greater the chances of all-out war in a failed state.”

The UN has raised its estimated death toll to 7,500, though it would seem it’s now far higher as Homs is “cleaned” (sic) within hours, according to one report. There is no telephone or internet service. Communication is impossible, yet tens of thousands of civilians remain, trapped. 13 were killed in a botched attempt to smuggle out four reporters (at least three of whom later escaped), while the bodies of the two journalists killed on Feb. 22 were finally taken to Damascus, at last word.  

Sec. of State Hillary Clinton called for a coup, while Qatar and Saudi Arabia want the rebels armed; the Saudis wanting to see the majority Sunnis in charge in Syria.
Meanwhile, the United States is very concerned over the fate of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles and has warned neighboring states to be on the lookout for the spread of them. Sound familiar? We have the same issue with Libya and hundreds of missing shoulder-fired missiles.

In the case of Syria, the concern is more than warranted. For starters, Syria is not a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention, so the international community lacks comprehensive knowledge of how much they have and where it is stored. There are also legitimate concerns Bashar Assad will use the weapons on his own people to save his skin.
Lastly, I just have to note for the record that Syria did hold its sham referendum on a new constitution; one that would enable Assad to stay in power until 2028…his current term ends in 2014 and the new constitution allows for two, 7-year terms, so he’d run under the rules of the new document.

Egypt: A court adjourned a trial of 16 Americans and 27 others from non-governmental organizations and then two of the NGOs paid $4 million in bail on Thursday to fly out 11 employees, including six Americans (the others already being out of the country), capping weeks of diplomatic wrangling. The United States had threatened to end $1.5 billion in annual aid, most of which went to the Egyptian military, unless the case was resolved, but what resulted was “a growing backlash against the perceived American interference in the Egyptian justice system,” as reported by the New York Times’ David D. Kirkpatrick and Steven Lee Myers, who added, “No Egyptian official stepped forward to accept responsibility for releasing the Americans. Instead, judges and prosecutors distanced themselves from the decision and traded accusations of political capitulation and conflict of interest.”

So you can see how difficult it is going to be to maintain any semblance of influence in Egypt. Saturday is supposed to be the day a 100-member panel is selected to draft a new constitution, and the ruling military council reiterated it wants to hold a presidential election by June (the electoral commission said the process will actually begin in May…with a run-off June 16-17). I remain highly skeptical this timetable will be met. First, for example, the new constitution must be approved.
Ironically, the very Muslim Brotherhood the United States fears played a positive role in getting the Americans released; the Brotherhood now the leading bloc in the new parliament. But don’t read too much into this.

Afghanistan: Two more American soldiers were killed when an Afghan civilian opened fire after seizing a weapon from a guard tower at a joint NATO-Afghan base in the southern part of the country. That makes six American service members killed by Afghans as a result of the violence that followed the accidental burning of Korans by American forces, two officers being shot in the back of the head right after I had posted last week’s column. [12 of the 60 U.S.-led coalition soldiers who have died thus far this year have been killed by their Afghan comrades.]

So with so much mistrust after ten years, is there any cause for optimism whatsoever? No.

You know what’s never brought up in this whole debate? It goes back to the last Afghan presidential election. We’re dealing with a corrupt, and treacherous, ruler in Hamid Karzai who shouldn’t be president in the first place. It should have been Abdullah Abdullah, who won the vote, until it was stolen from him.

The problem now is that as the United States draws down its forces, American troops will be increasingly relying on Afghans to offer perimeter security, such as at combat posts and along key roads. That’s a formula for further Taliban infiltration. We want to leave an Afghan army and police force capable of defending the country, but in reality, NATO and the Afghans don’t totally control a single province today. When you hear otherwise, it’s a bunch of lies.

I do have a “Hot Spots” post on the topic that offers a somewhat different opinion. Check it out.

[And an old story has reemerged in a potentially big way. This week, as part of a long-running massive lawsuit against the Saudi government and its supposed complicity in 9/11, as filed by victims’ families, former Senator Bob Graham details his suspicions in an affidavit; Graham having headed up the Senate Intelligence Committee at the time. Former Sen. Bob Kerrey, who served on the 9/11 Commission, also will be saying more on the topic, it seems.]

Russia: Sunday is election day and marks the return of Vladimir Putin to the presidency. He is expected to gain the 50% necessary to avoid a run-off, though should he fall short it only delays the inevitable. Putin could rule until 2024, if he lasts for two, six-year terms, but while the opposition wasn’t able to coalesce this time around a viable candidate who could challenge Putin, opposition is nonetheless growing.

Speaking to campaign workers this week, Putin said, “We have reason to believe that our opponents are preparing…to use some kind of mechanisms that would confirm that the elections were falsified. They will stuff [ballot boxes] themselves and manipulate [the vote],” he said. “Then they will present [the evidence]. We already see this – we already know this.” [Moscow Times]

Hilarious.

And then there was the revelation this week that an assassination plot against Putin had been foiled, with the arrest of two men by Russian and Ukrainian special forces in Odessa, we were told. They were dispatched to kill Putin by Chechen rebel Doku Umarov, the leader of the separatist movement.

How conveeenient, many of us thought; the plot being disclosed days before the election. What I found interesting is that the ‘terrorists’ supposedly planted explosives on one of Moscow’s major thoroughfares often used by Putin’s entourage to take him from his home to his office. I know the road. I just have a hard time believing they could plant explosives on it without being discovered.

Masha Lipman / Washington Post

“The main idea of Putin’s campaign is that there is no alternative to his leadership and that, without him at the top, Russia will fall apart. While his own campaign rhetoric may be a bit more subtle, his loyalists commonly treat their anti-Putin compatriots as enemies and traitors inspired or, worse, paid by evil, alien forces out to destroy Russia.

“Such aggressive rhetoric, exploitation of xenophobic fears, and the blatant abuse of government authority and resources are not new: They have been part and parcel of the Putin regime. This behavior has antagonized the new class of urban professionals and has eventually led them to protest Putin’s rule. Since the government shows no interest in changing its practices, the rift between government and Russia’s modernized constituencies is becoming irreparable. Putin will win Sunday’s presidential election, but this growing alienation will steadily erode his power.”

Personally, I still don’t believe he lasts the year, but not because of Chechen terrorists.

North Korea: The United States and North Korea reached an agreement on Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program whereby the North would voluntarily cease all atomic device detonations, long-range missile tests and enrichment of uranium in return for over 240,000 metric tons of food aid. The deal would also allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to place its inspectors back into the Yongbyon nuclear complex to monitor compliance, though it is not known just how many plants North Korea has. The deal is supposed to have mechanisms in place to ensure the food doesn’t go solely to the military and the elite. It’s to be divvied up 20,000 tons each month.

There are no plans to restart six-party talks, however, which were last held in December 2008, about five months before the North detonated its second nuclear test device, and many, to say the least, are highly skeptical given Pyongyang’s abysmal track record of honoring past agreements. Both the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations were bamboozled by Kim Jong Il.

But now we have 28-year-old (?) Kim Jong Un on the throne and who knows who is really pulling the strings. What we do know is the kid and his handlers are operating from the same playbook used by his father.

I do agree with the Obama administration, though, that it’s worth learning more about the new regime. Give it two or three months to see how it goes. It’s not like we were gaining anything the way things stood before the latest probable sham agreement.

For its part, Seoul was highly skeptical, while the Chinese Foreign Ministry welcomed the hoped for breakthrough. Said a South Korean foreign policy expert, Andrei Lankov, “We are facing an endless soap opera. What does it mean? Pretty much nothing: the North Koreans will offer some symbolic concession to squeeze some aid and will behave themselves for a while.” [South China Morning Post]

Yemen: This hellhole has a new president, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who won a rigged, single candidate election, backed by Gulf neighbors and the West, to replace Ali Saleh, who had ruled Yemen for 33 years. Hadi is to oversee a two-year transition to parliamentary rule with a new constitution. His election was greeted by a car bomb in the southern part of the country that killed 21.

France: National Front candidate Marine Le Pen is still trying to qualify for the April presidential election and if she does, some continue to maintain (such as moi) that she can cause more than a bit of mischief; Le Pen playing well among working-class voters. Sarkozy had a bad week on the campaign trail and Hollande’s lead over the president is back to 3.5 percent.

Britain: The leader of Britain’s largest labor union is threatening mass civil disobedience timed for the London Olympics. Unite’s Len McCluskey said: “The attacks that are being launched on public sector workers at the moment are so deep and ideological that the idea the world should arrive in London and have these wonderful Olympic Games as though everything is nice and rosy in the garden is unthinkable….The unions, and the general community, have got every right to be out protesting.” [BBC News]

Opposition Labour leader Ed Milliband, though, wrote: “Any threat to the Olympics is totally unacceptable and wrong. This is a celebration for the whole country and must not be disrupted.”

Hear Hear! God Save the Queen!

Germany: Chancellor Angela Merkel, facing re-election next year, has seen her approval rating rise to a three-year high, 64%. If President George W. Bush were still around, he’d say “Good girl” and give Merkel a back rub.

Actually, the Chancellor deserves credit for the coolness in which she handled the dumping of four beers on her. That counts for something in my book, as much as I mourned the loss of those premium pilsners.

Australia: Prime Minister Julia Gillard fended off a leadership challenge from rival and former foreign minister (and prime minister), Kevin Rudd; Gillard prevailing 71 to 31. She then consolidated her power and reshuffled her cabinet.

But Gillard remains deeply unpopular across the country, with her latest approval rating at a putrid 26%.

Colombia: The rebel group, FARC, said it was abandoning its practice of kidnapping civilians for ransom, which could signal the group’s willingness to enter into final peace negotiations. A sustained 10-year offensive by the Colombian military has cut FARC in half, though the group still holds at least 100 civilians hostage. FARC said it would release 10 members of the armed forces it was treating as “prisoners of war.”

Venezuela: There are reports President Hugo Chavez has less than one year to live. According to leaked e-mails, Russian doctors treating him in Cuba say he’s a miserable patient, for one, suspending treatment whenever he had to make public appearances. The Russians also feel like they are trying to clean up mistakes the Cuban team made. Chavez had more surgery this week, which we are told went well.

Mexico: From Rong-Gong Lin II of the Los Angeles Times:

“Twenty-two guests on the Carnival Splendor cruise ship out of Long Beach were robbed at gunpoint in Mexico last week as they traveled by bus from a nature hike in the jungle to the Mexican port city of Puerto Vallarta….

“Hooded gunmen intercepted the tourists’ bus…The gunmen took cameras, money, watches and other valuables before fleeing into the countryside….

“ ‘Carnival sincerely apologizes to its guests for this very unfortunate and disturbing event.’”

[Isn’t Carnival great? Can there be another company on the planet on a worse roll?]

And that’s your Mexico tourism update. Easier to go to your local Mexican food joint and drink some Dos Equis, if you ask me.