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Iran: Just last month, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said his country was “far” from launching an attack on Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons facilities. But on Thursday, Barak said Iran is approaching a stage “which may render any physical strike as impractical.”
Earlier in the week, Barak said, “It is time for much tougher diplomacy and sanctions because there is a risk not just to Israel but to the whole world. It will be much more complicated, much more dangerous and much more costly if we allow (Iran to get the bomb).”
Middle East troubleshooter Dennis Ross said, “The Israelis view this in existential terms. If the Israelis feel this is an existential threat it doesn’t matter what anybody says to them. They could do it unilaterally.”
Appearing on “60 Minutes” last Sunday, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Iran was probably one year away from being able to build a bomb. He added that it could take a year or two beyond that to develop the ability to deliver a warhead by missile.
“That’s a red line for us, and it’s a red line, obviously, for the Israelis,” Panetta said. “If we have to do it, we will do it,” he added, without elaborating.
It was a week when a senior official told CNN that Israel could attack Iran by summer, which begs the question, why would we say this about our friend’s potential actions, even if Barak is making it clear that if Israel is to act, it must do so soon.
The thing is, Iran’s uranium facilities are disappearing rapidly into newly constructed mountain bunkers that the Wall Street Journal first reported cannot be currently destroyed by the United States’ existing arsenal, including the heavy bombs that Israel is said to be purchasing.
It was also a week where in congressional testimony, U.S. intelligence officials indicated Iran has crossed a threshold in its relationship with the United States and that while there is no evidence Iran is actively plotting attacks on U.S. soil, the game may have changed with the thwarted plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington. Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr. said it “shows that some Iranian officials – probably including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – have changed their calculus and are now more willing to conduct an attack in the United States in response to real or perceived U.S. actions that threaten the regime.”
So what now? The U.N. nuclear team that visited Iran for three days earlier in the week said it planned to revisit Tehran “in the very near future,” which indicated some progress in the International Atomic Energy Agency’s quest for information. The mission leader, Herman Nackaerts, said, “We had three days of intensive discussions about all our priorities, and we are committed to resolve all the outstanding issues…But of course there’s still a lot of work to be done.”
That was Wednesday. However, two days later we learned that the IAEA had been barred from the key Parchin military site where they wanted to interview a top Iranian nuclear scientist. This is not good.
The White House says it wants Israel to hold off, to give the sanctions more time to have their desired effect, a miraculous toppling of the regime by a restive populous.
This is unrealistic. Israel won’t wait. I still say in the end, the U.S. will join them.
Lastly, should Iran close the Strait of Hormuz, Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, insisted again his kingdom could make up for any disruptions to global supplies, though most of it still has to transit through there.
Syria: At last word, the Syrian army continued to fight back against rebel forces that had taken some suburbs of Damascus, and there is a late report the military killed 200 in a night assault on Homs, this as the UN Security Council met on the crisis with China and Russia reiterating their opposition to the use of force, not that this is a realistic course of action at this point. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said his country would not support any action that would be imposed on Syria, such as an internal political settlement and the release of all political prisoners and increased press freedoms, and would avoid taking sides in an internal conflict.
“The international community unfortunately did take sides in Libya and we would never allow the Security Council to authorize anything similar to what happened in Libya.”
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov offered: “Pushing this resolution is a path to civil war.”
For her part, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton joined the Arab League and European diplomats in calling for tougher action.
“We all have a choice: Stand with the people of Syria and the region, or become complicit in the continuing violence there.”
Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jasim al-Thani said, “The killing machine is still at work.”
Over 6,000 are now estimated to have died in the uprising. The Arab League halted its observer mission over safety concerns.
As an aside, Hizbullah’s standing among the Arab people is falling rapidly as it stands by the Assad regime after praising other movements in the Arab Spring. The protesters in Syria are beginning to burn Hizbullah flags.
Egypt: In the rough and tumble city of Port Said on the Suez Canal, there was a football match between home team Al-Masry and favored Al-Ahly, based in Cairo and one of the country’s most popular teams. Al-Masry pulled off the upset, 3-1, whereupon the home fans stormed the field anyway and started to riot with knives, bottles, rocks, and flares that were shot into the stands. When it was over, at least 79 were dead and about 250 injured, many with severe concussions after being tossed out of the stands. Police did little to stop the madness and resultant stampede, where many of the deaths occurred. Some of the players were hurt as well. Said Al-Ahly goalkeeper Sharif Ikrami:
“There were people dying in front of us. It’s over. We’ve all made a decision that we won’t play soccer anymore. How will we play soccer after 70 people died? We can’t think about it.”
Violence spread throughout Port Said, which was the scene of much bloodshed during the first weeks of the Arab Spring and the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak.
Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, head of the ruling military council, said:
“This will not bring Egypt down. These incidents happen anywhere in the world. We will not let those behind it go…This will not affect Egypt and its security.”
Meanwhile, the new parliament has opened for business and now young activists who galvanized the revolt have a new target, the Islamists who capitalized on the political changes by taking over 70% of the seats, between the Muslim Brotherhood and the radical Salafists.
The army has pledged to hand over power by the end of June, and now there is talk of a presidential election in May, but more are increasingly of the belief I brought up last time; that the Brotherhood is in alliance with the military and will give the latter a sizable portfolio, including foreign policy, post-election.
Separately, on the issue of the six American pro-democracy and human rights group workers being prevented from leaving the country, the Egyptian justice minister returned a letter from the U.S. Ambassador to Egypt asking to re-examine the issue without comment.
Lastly, Oren Dorell and Sarah Lynch of USA TODAY had a depressing piece on the plight of Christians in the Arab world, not that you didn’t already know this. What I didn’t realize is that the new dominant political party in Tunisia, Ennahda, is pushing for Sharia law in the new constitution. So much for Tunisia being a bright spot.
In Libya, the head of the Tripoli Military Council once led a militia movement with links to al-Qaeda and now he is planning to run for office in elections scheduled for April.
“In Afghanistan, no new building permits have been issued for churches, and the last church open to the public was demolished over the summer. In Iraq, the Christian community was decreased by two-thirds since 2003 amid bombings of churches and assassinations of priests.
“And Christians in Syria…have been subjected to murder, rape and kidnappings in Damascus and rebellious towns, according to Christian rights groups.”
For any who harbor the slightest bit of optimism about the entire Middle East, you need only know some of the above to recognize you are sadly mistaken. Of course our Jewish friends face the same issues, writ larger still.
Israel: Aside from the Iranian situation, Prime Minster Netanyahu won a leadership contest for his Likud Party over his ultranationalist rival, which was as expected, though his opponent, Moshe Feiglin, did better than projected. The far right considers the prime minister too soft on the settlements issue and peacemaking with the Palestinians, though this week Netanyahu’s government approved new incentives to entice Israelis to move to the West Bank, exactly what the Palestinians don’t want, of course.
[Hamas leader Khaled Meshal formally abandoned his longstanding base of operations in Damascus due to the uncertainty there and stopped in Jordan, his first official visit there since the Jordanian government shut down his headquarters in Amman in 1999. Jordan could allow Meshal to remain but only if he stays out of politics. In classic Jordan fashion, King Abdullah II and his government have to keep the peace with Hamas’ rival, Fatah, as well as Jordan’s allies, the United States and Israel.
Others say Meshal will end up in Qatar, or possibly Egypt, where other Hamas officials are expected to settle to be in proximity to Gaza. If they return to Gaza directly, as opposed to on some package tour, Israel will target them; not that they aren’t targets already.]
Pakistan/Afghanistan: A leaked NATO report reaches conclusions that are hardly a surprise; that the Taliban in Afghanistan are being directly assisted by Pakistani security services, such as the ISI. Pakistan, for example, knows the whereabouts of senior Taliban leaders. Of course the ISI has long denied such claims, but if you look up the word ‘duplicitous’ in the dictionary, you’re liable to see the ISI in the definition. The NATO report is based on 27,000 interrogations with more than 4,000 captured Taliban. It notes: “Pakistan’s manipulation of the Taliban senior leadership continues unabatedly.”
And, in the conclusion of the report, the document says, as reported by the BBC, “that in the last year there has been unprecedented interest, even from members of the Afghan government, in joining the Taliban cause.” And, from the document itself, “Afghan civilians frequently prefer Taliban governance over the Afghan government, usually as a result of government corruption.”
As for NATO operations in Afghanistan, I noted last time that French President Sarkozy announced he’ll speed France’s withdrawal from the country by the end of 2013, a year earlier than planned. Aside from the incident where an Afghan soldier the French were training turned his gun on French troops, killing four and wounding 15, the French public is overwhelmingly against the presence in Afghanistan and Sarkozy faces a very tough election.
So this week Defense Secretary Leon Panetta started off by saying he hoped to transition to training missions in Afghanistan in 2013, a year before withdrawal of all NATO forces. Needless to say this plays into the hands of the Taliban, who know they can just wait the U.S. and its allies out, so Panetta spent the rest of the week backtracking, saying the U.S. will indeed be participating in combat operations when needed. Nonetheless, the West is still out in less than three years.
Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates said, “We’ve invested too much to get too impatient because we’re tired.”
Lastly, back to Pakistan, the Supreme Court ruled that Prime Minister Gilani will indeed face contempt charges, with proceedings beginning Feb. 13, for not reopening a corruption investigation into President Zardari’s finances, going back to the 1990s and issues he allegedly had in Switzerland. Gilani has claimed that Zardari has immunity as president. To say the least this is yet another mess for the nation to face.
Lebanon: The Special Tribunal for Lebanon looking into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri said it will try the four accused (all members of Hizbullah…Hizbullah denies this) in absentia, having exhausted all attempts to arrest them. No date for when the trial will start has been announced but suffice it to say this could be explosive.
China: President Hu Jintao reasserted Communist Party control over the military, thus attempting to counter any movement toward nationalizing the force by making it ultimately responsible to the government rather than the party.
On the pollution front, the smoke from Lunar New Year fireworks sent air pollution readings soaring in Beijing, according to a new, more sensitive measuring system the government just instituted. It’s been a bad winter on this front but authorities have finally seen the light; more transparency is good.
Russia: Saturday’s (today’s) protests by the opposition in Moscow could be limited in scope given that the air temperature is likely to be minus 10. In all the polls for the March presidential vote, Vladimir Putin is under 50%, meaning he’d face a run-off. Just a few years ago, Putin’s popularity was consistently in the 70s.
France: President Sarkozy still trails in the opinion polls, and, assuming he makes it into the run-off, would lose by 20 points to Socialist Francois Hollande.
Hollande issued a 60-point manifesto that included outlawing “toxic” financial products and banning stock options for all but start-ups, as well as re-lowering the retirement age back to 60. [Marine Le Pen is calling for the same on this last point.]
For his part, Sarkozy is calling for a transactions tax and a rise in the VAT, even if others in the EU don’t go along, especially in the case of the former. He is portraying himself as a courageous leader capable of making tough decisions, a la his dealings with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Britain/Argentina: Prince William has arrived for his training mission on the Falklands and the Argentines are none too happy as the 30th anniversary of the start of the war is April 2. Buenos Aires sees William’s arrival as a provocation. Britain’s Ministry of Defense said William is merely following the routine career path of a pilot on the RAF search-and-rescue team.
Separately, the Sunday Times of London had a scary piece on the vast numbers of British-Somalis who are going to Somalia for training and returning as Mujahidin fighters. Al-Shabaab, with links to al-Qaeda, is a major threat for Britain. Just two weeks ago, a British-Somali who had become an al-Shabaab commander, was killed by a U.S. drone outside Mogadishu.
And the Cameron government has another issue to deal with. Spain wants to reopen discussions on the sovereignty of Gibraltar with the ultimate goal of having the rock returned. Gibraltar’s 30,000 inhabitants would most likely not welcome the idea.
Earlier in the week, Barak said, “It is time for much tougher diplomacy and sanctions because there is a risk not just to Israel but to the whole world. It will be much more complicated, much more dangerous and much more costly if we allow (Iran to get the bomb).”
Middle East troubleshooter Dennis Ross said, “The Israelis view this in existential terms. If the Israelis feel this is an existential threat it doesn’t matter what anybody says to them. They could do it unilaterally.”
Appearing on “60 Minutes” last Sunday, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Iran was probably one year away from being able to build a bomb. He added that it could take a year or two beyond that to develop the ability to deliver a warhead by missile.
“That’s a red line for us, and it’s a red line, obviously, for the Israelis,” Panetta said. “If we have to do it, we will do it,” he added, without elaborating.
It was a week when a senior official told CNN that Israel could attack Iran by summer, which begs the question, why would we say this about our friend’s potential actions, even if Barak is making it clear that if Israel is to act, it must do so soon.
The thing is, Iran’s uranium facilities are disappearing rapidly into newly constructed mountain bunkers that the Wall Street Journal first reported cannot be currently destroyed by the United States’ existing arsenal, including the heavy bombs that Israel is said to be purchasing.
It was also a week where in congressional testimony, U.S. intelligence officials indicated Iran has crossed a threshold in its relationship with the United States and that while there is no evidence Iran is actively plotting attacks on U.S. soil, the game may have changed with the thwarted plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington. Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr. said it “shows that some Iranian officials – probably including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – have changed their calculus and are now more willing to conduct an attack in the United States in response to real or perceived U.S. actions that threaten the regime.”
So what now? The U.N. nuclear team that visited Iran for three days earlier in the week said it planned to revisit Tehran “in the very near future,” which indicated some progress in the International Atomic Energy Agency’s quest for information. The mission leader, Herman Nackaerts, said, “We had three days of intensive discussions about all our priorities, and we are committed to resolve all the outstanding issues…But of course there’s still a lot of work to be done.”
That was Wednesday. However, two days later we learned that the IAEA had been barred from the key Parchin military site where they wanted to interview a top Iranian nuclear scientist. This is not good.
The White House says it wants Israel to hold off, to give the sanctions more time to have their desired effect, a miraculous toppling of the regime by a restive populous.
This is unrealistic. Israel won’t wait. I still say in the end, the U.S. will join them.
Lastly, should Iran close the Strait of Hormuz, Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, insisted again his kingdom could make up for any disruptions to global supplies, though most of it still has to transit through there.
Syria: At last word, the Syrian army continued to fight back against rebel forces that had taken some suburbs of Damascus, and there is a late report the military killed 200 in a night assault on Homs, this as the UN Security Council met on the crisis with China and Russia reiterating their opposition to the use of force, not that this is a realistic course of action at this point. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said his country would not support any action that would be imposed on Syria, such as an internal political settlement and the release of all political prisoners and increased press freedoms, and would avoid taking sides in an internal conflict.
“The international community unfortunately did take sides in Libya and we would never allow the Security Council to authorize anything similar to what happened in Libya.”
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov offered: “Pushing this resolution is a path to civil war.”
For her part, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton joined the Arab League and European diplomats in calling for tougher action.
“We all have a choice: Stand with the people of Syria and the region, or become complicit in the continuing violence there.”
Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jasim al-Thani said, “The killing machine is still at work.”
Over 6,000 are now estimated to have died in the uprising. The Arab League halted its observer mission over safety concerns.
As an aside, Hizbullah’s standing among the Arab people is falling rapidly as it stands by the Assad regime after praising other movements in the Arab Spring. The protesters in Syria are beginning to burn Hizbullah flags.
Egypt: In the rough and tumble city of Port Said on the Suez Canal, there was a football match between home team Al-Masry and favored Al-Ahly, based in Cairo and one of the country’s most popular teams. Al-Masry pulled off the upset, 3-1, whereupon the home fans stormed the field anyway and started to riot with knives, bottles, rocks, and flares that were shot into the stands. When it was over, at least 79 were dead and about 250 injured, many with severe concussions after being tossed out of the stands. Police did little to stop the madness and resultant stampede, where many of the deaths occurred. Some of the players were hurt as well. Said Al-Ahly goalkeeper Sharif Ikrami:
“There were people dying in front of us. It’s over. We’ve all made a decision that we won’t play soccer anymore. How will we play soccer after 70 people died? We can’t think about it.”
Violence spread throughout Port Said, which was the scene of much bloodshed during the first weeks of the Arab Spring and the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak.
Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, head of the ruling military council, said:
“This will not bring Egypt down. These incidents happen anywhere in the world. We will not let those behind it go…This will not affect Egypt and its security.”
Meanwhile, the new parliament has opened for business and now young activists who galvanized the revolt have a new target, the Islamists who capitalized on the political changes by taking over 70% of the seats, between the Muslim Brotherhood and the radical Salafists.
The army has pledged to hand over power by the end of June, and now there is talk of a presidential election in May, but more are increasingly of the belief I brought up last time; that the Brotherhood is in alliance with the military and will give the latter a sizable portfolio, including foreign policy, post-election.
Separately, on the issue of the six American pro-democracy and human rights group workers being prevented from leaving the country, the Egyptian justice minister returned a letter from the U.S. Ambassador to Egypt asking to re-examine the issue without comment.
Lastly, Oren Dorell and Sarah Lynch of USA TODAY had a depressing piece on the plight of Christians in the Arab world, not that you didn’t already know this. What I didn’t realize is that the new dominant political party in Tunisia, Ennahda, is pushing for Sharia law in the new constitution. So much for Tunisia being a bright spot.
In Libya, the head of the Tripoli Military Council once led a militia movement with links to al-Qaeda and now he is planning to run for office in elections scheduled for April.
“In Afghanistan, no new building permits have been issued for churches, and the last church open to the public was demolished over the summer. In Iraq, the Christian community was decreased by two-thirds since 2003 amid bombings of churches and assassinations of priests.
“And Christians in Syria…have been subjected to murder, rape and kidnappings in Damascus and rebellious towns, according to Christian rights groups.”
For any who harbor the slightest bit of optimism about the entire Middle East, you need only know some of the above to recognize you are sadly mistaken. Of course our Jewish friends face the same issues, writ larger still.
Israel: Aside from the Iranian situation, Prime Minster Netanyahu won a leadership contest for his Likud Party over his ultranationalist rival, which was as expected, though his opponent, Moshe Feiglin, did better than projected. The far right considers the prime minister too soft on the settlements issue and peacemaking with the Palestinians, though this week Netanyahu’s government approved new incentives to entice Israelis to move to the West Bank, exactly what the Palestinians don’t want, of course.
[Hamas leader Khaled Meshal formally abandoned his longstanding base of operations in Damascus due to the uncertainty there and stopped in Jordan, his first official visit there since the Jordanian government shut down his headquarters in Amman in 1999. Jordan could allow Meshal to remain but only if he stays out of politics. In classic Jordan fashion, King Abdullah II and his government have to keep the peace with Hamas’ rival, Fatah, as well as Jordan’s allies, the United States and Israel.
Others say Meshal will end up in Qatar, or possibly Egypt, where other Hamas officials are expected to settle to be in proximity to Gaza. If they return to Gaza directly, as opposed to on some package tour, Israel will target them; not that they aren’t targets already.]
Pakistan/Afghanistan: A leaked NATO report reaches conclusions that are hardly a surprise; that the Taliban in Afghanistan are being directly assisted by Pakistani security services, such as the ISI. Pakistan, for example, knows the whereabouts of senior Taliban leaders. Of course the ISI has long denied such claims, but if you look up the word ‘duplicitous’ in the dictionary, you’re liable to see the ISI in the definition. The NATO report is based on 27,000 interrogations with more than 4,000 captured Taliban. It notes: “Pakistan’s manipulation of the Taliban senior leadership continues unabatedly.”
And, in the conclusion of the report, the document says, as reported by the BBC, “that in the last year there has been unprecedented interest, even from members of the Afghan government, in joining the Taliban cause.” And, from the document itself, “Afghan civilians frequently prefer Taliban governance over the Afghan government, usually as a result of government corruption.”
As for NATO operations in Afghanistan, I noted last time that French President Sarkozy announced he’ll speed France’s withdrawal from the country by the end of 2013, a year earlier than planned. Aside from the incident where an Afghan soldier the French were training turned his gun on French troops, killing four and wounding 15, the French public is overwhelmingly against the presence in Afghanistan and Sarkozy faces a very tough election.
So this week Defense Secretary Leon Panetta started off by saying he hoped to transition to training missions in Afghanistan in 2013, a year before withdrawal of all NATO forces. Needless to say this plays into the hands of the Taliban, who know they can just wait the U.S. and its allies out, so Panetta spent the rest of the week backtracking, saying the U.S. will indeed be participating in combat operations when needed. Nonetheless, the West is still out in less than three years.
Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates said, “We’ve invested too much to get too impatient because we’re tired.”
Lastly, back to Pakistan, the Supreme Court ruled that Prime Minister Gilani will indeed face contempt charges, with proceedings beginning Feb. 13, for not reopening a corruption investigation into President Zardari’s finances, going back to the 1990s and issues he allegedly had in Switzerland. Gilani has claimed that Zardari has immunity as president. To say the least this is yet another mess for the nation to face.
Lebanon: The Special Tribunal for Lebanon looking into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri said it will try the four accused (all members of Hizbullah…Hizbullah denies this) in absentia, having exhausted all attempts to arrest them. No date for when the trial will start has been announced but suffice it to say this could be explosive.
China: President Hu Jintao reasserted Communist Party control over the military, thus attempting to counter any movement toward nationalizing the force by making it ultimately responsible to the government rather than the party.
On the pollution front, the smoke from Lunar New Year fireworks sent air pollution readings soaring in Beijing, according to a new, more sensitive measuring system the government just instituted. It’s been a bad winter on this front but authorities have finally seen the light; more transparency is good.
Russia: Saturday’s (today’s) protests by the opposition in Moscow could be limited in scope given that the air temperature is likely to be minus 10. In all the polls for the March presidential vote, Vladimir Putin is under 50%, meaning he’d face a run-off. Just a few years ago, Putin’s popularity was consistently in the 70s.
France: President Sarkozy still trails in the opinion polls, and, assuming he makes it into the run-off, would lose by 20 points to Socialist Francois Hollande.
Hollande issued a 60-point manifesto that included outlawing “toxic” financial products and banning stock options for all but start-ups, as well as re-lowering the retirement age back to 60. [Marine Le Pen is calling for the same on this last point.]
For his part, Sarkozy is calling for a transactions tax and a rise in the VAT, even if others in the EU don’t go along, especially in the case of the former. He is portraying himself as a courageous leader capable of making tough decisions, a la his dealings with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Britain/Argentina: Prince William has arrived for his training mission on the Falklands and the Argentines are none too happy as the 30th anniversary of the start of the war is April 2. Buenos Aires sees William’s arrival as a provocation. Britain’s Ministry of Defense said William is merely following the routine career path of a pilot on the RAF search-and-rescue team.
Separately, the Sunday Times of London had a scary piece on the vast numbers of British-Somalis who are going to Somalia for training and returning as Mujahidin fighters. Al-Shabaab, with links to al-Qaeda, is a major threat for Britain. Just two weeks ago, a British-Somali who had become an al-Shabaab commander, was killed by a U.S. drone outside Mogadishu.
And the Cameron government has another issue to deal with. Spain wants to reopen discussions on the sovereignty of Gibraltar with the ultimate goal of having the rock returned. Gibraltar’s 30,000 inhabitants would most likely not welcome the idea.