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Iran: The mullahs have vowed to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost 20% of the world’s oil flows, if the United States and its allies block Iran’s oil exports. U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta counters that the military is “fully prepared” to deal with any Iranian effort to close the Strait.
Top U.S. officials have been meeting with Israel to try and convince the Netanyahu government not to launch a preemptive strike on Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons facilities in the hope of setting the program back a few years, the U.S. preferring that sanctions be given longer to strangle the Iranian economy and perhaps precipitate a change in regime, or have the current leadership climb down and agree to international controls on its nuclear efforts.
The U.S. and Israel were to have conducted the largest joint air defense exercises between the two, ever, this April but they were postponed, with an Israeli spokesman saying the “timing is not right,” even as other representatives of both governments said the postponement was for technical reasons. We know who is telling the truth on this one.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Israel was “very far off” from finalizing any plan to employ force, while Israeli intelligence said Iran has not yet committed to actually building a bomb.
Saudi Arabia said that if Iran were to shut the strait, the kingdom would ramp up production to meet Iran’s lost supply and then some, as I’ve argued for years now, but Tehran warned the Saudis against doing so.
Those are some of the facts. Here’s what else we know. The White House’s latest effort to get its allies to refuse Iranian oil exports has been a big time failure, with the exception of the EU, sort of. Just a week ago, Japan acted as if it would stop taking in Iranian oil after long-term contracts were honored, but now Japan is backing off, not knowing how it would plug the hole in demand. South Korea said it can’t afford to risk damaging its fragile economy by not taking in Iran’s oil at this time. China, as I noted last time, said it wouldn’t comply, though it denounced Iran’s pursuit of nukes. This week India also said it would ignore the U.S. sanctions regime and only honor existing UN resolutions, so India will continue to accept Iran’s oil. And the European Union will ban the oil, but it is waiting until summer to give Greece, Portugal and Spain time to find alternative suppliers.
We also know that per my discussion of last week on Dimona, Israel’s nuclear reactor, that it is indeed being shut down soon. I told you what that means. Israel would do this to limit the damage from any fallout should Iran strike it in retaliation for a move on Iran’s facilities.
We also know that the odds of a misstep or miscalculation on the part of the Iranians increases with each day as its naval forces ply the same waters as the United States, the latter continuing to increase its presence.
At the same time, Israel’s government is being pressured by some of its coalition members to be tougher, though Netanyahu has said, “For the first time I see Iran wobble” due to the sanctions.
As for my opinion, I maintain my May timetable of a U.S. strike despite all the talk to the contrary. Again, it’s about the political calendar. I hope Iran backs down beforehand, and that there isn’t a mistake in the waters that could lead to war.
Just understand that Israel cannot, and will not allow Iran to get the bomb. Netanyahu would never let this happen on his watch. The U.S., with its firepower, needs to be part of any operation. Imagine, for example, Iran with the bomb and what Hizbullah could do. It wouldn’t be too easy for Israel to move into Lebanon with Hizbullah acting under an Iranian nuclear umbrella.
This week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned against the U.S. or Israel acting preemptively. “The consequences will be extremely grave…It will trigger a chain reaction and I don’t know where it will stop.”
Russia wants talks between the six powers and Iran to resume. I don’t believe it will get to that.
Finally, Mark Helprin wrote the following in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal.
“To assume that Iran will not close the Strait of Hormuz is to assume that primitive religious fanatics will perform cost-benefit analyses the way they are done at Wharton. They won’t, especially if the oil that is their life’s blood is threatened. If Iran does close the strait, we will fight an air and naval war derivative of and yet peripheral to the Iranian nuclear program, a mortal threat the president of the United States has inadequately addressed.
“A mortal threat when Iran is not yet in possession of a nuclear arsenal? Yes, because immediately upon possession all remedies are severely restricted. Without doubt, Iran has long wanted nuclear weapons – to deter American intervention in its and neighboring territories; to threaten Europe and thereby cleave it from American interests in the Middle East; to respond to the former Iraqi nuclear effort; to counter the contiguous nuclear presences in Pakistan, Russia and the U.S. in the Gulf; to neutralize Israel’s nuclear deterrent so as to limit it to the attrition of conventional battle, or to destroy it with one lucky shot; to lead the Islamic world; to correct the security imbalance with Saudi Arabia, which aided by geography and American arms now outclasses it; and to threaten the U.S. directly….
“It is true that Iranian proxies would attempt to exact a price in terror worldwide, but this is not new, we would brace for the reprisals, and although they would peak, they would then subside. The cost would be far less than that of permitting the power of nuclear destruction to a vengeful, martyrdom-obsessed state in the midst of a never-subsiding fury against the West.
“Any president of the United States fit for the office should someday, soon, say to the American people that in his judgment Iran – because of its longstanding and implacable push for nuclear weapons, its express hostility to the U.S., Israel and the West, and its record of barbarity and terror – must be deprived of the capacity to wound this country and its allies such as they have never been wounded before.
“Relying solely upon his oath, holding in abeyance any consideration of politics or transient opinion, and eager to defend his decision in exquisite detail, he should order the armed forces of the United States to attack and destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons complex. When they have complied, and our pilots are in the air on their way home, they will have protected our children in their beds – and our children’s children, many years from now, in theirs. May this country always have clear enough sight and strong enough will to stand for itself in the face of mortal threat, and in time.”
Israel: Separate from all the above, the Jerusalem Post reported that the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) “has ordered the Southern Command to prepare for a possible large Gaza operation that could occur within the next few months.”
A member of the General Staff said this week, “Gaza is possibly Israel’s most volatile front today. It is a front that can explode at any given moment.”
Hamas’ weaponry has grown significantly and it’s estimated they have a fighting force of 20,000, while the IDF is concerned with the smuggling of sophisticated weaponry into Gaza – such as Russian made anti-tank missiles and shoulder-to-air missiles that were stolen from Libyan military storehouses.
On a different topic, Israel and Saudi Arabia are engaged in a cyberwar, with each attacking the websites of each other’s stock markets and other interests. Israel’s El Al was hit, for example. Both sides have left little doubt their actions are politically motivated. Israel’s deputy foreign minister, Danny Ayalon, said Israel regarded any hack attack as “comparable to terrorism,” and vowed to respond in kind.
Syria: The Arab League’s observer mission is over, at least for a few days, and a most fruitless one it has been as violence actually picked up while the monitors were there. The monitors were supposed to determine if the Bashar Assad regime had kept its pledge to end the crackdown and they quickly learned that wasn’t the case.
Immediately after they left a place, the Syrian troops would move back in. Arab foreign ministers are to meet on Sunday to plot their next step. Last week on “60 Minutes” the emir of Qatar said sending Arab troops in to halt the bloodshed was a distinct possibility but this seems highly unlikely. An extension of the mission, though, is possible. What we do know is Iran’s head of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force has been in Syria, no doubt coordinating military aid from Tehran.
Civil war has broken out, whether some want to use the term or not. The opposition is now in control in the town of Zabadani, near Damascus, while Assad is having problems in parts of Damascus itself. The death toll is now over 5,400 in the ten months of the uprising.
Last Sunday in Beirut, at a conference on democracy in the Arab world, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said, “Today, I say again to President Assad: Stop the violence. Stop killing your people”
Ban added, on the topic of the Arab Spring in general:
“It is sometimes said that authoritarian regimes, whatever else their faults, at least kept a lid on sectarian conflict. This is a cruel canard. Yet it would be equally mistaken to assume that all of the new regimes now emerging will automatically uphold universal human rights….
“The old way, the old order, is crumbling. One-man rule and the perpetuation of family dynasties, monopolies of wealth and power, the silencing of the media, the deprivation of fundamental freedoms that are the birthright of every man, woman and child on this planet – to all of this, the people say: Enough!” [Washington Post]
Ban also addressed the topic of Hizbullah in Lebanon, saying he was “deeply concerned about the military capacity of Hizbullah and…the lack of progress in disarmament.”
To which Hizbullah leader Sheikh Nasrallah replied: “Our concern is that our people are comforted that there is a resistance in Lebanon and we will not allow a new occupation or another violation.” So, no, he will not disarm.
[Beirut was rocked this week by a building collapse that claimed 27 lives. Entire neighborhoods are probably unsafe as structures built in the 1950s in particular have flimsy foundations on what is basically sand.]
Iraq: The leader of the secular Iraqiya party, Ayad Allawi, said “Sectarianism is coming back in force in this country. Iraq is passing through the most dangerous phase in its history.” In just two instances in the past week, 53 Shiite pilgrims were killed as they headed towards a Sunni town for a religious celebration, while 21 were killed in fighting at a police compound in Ramadi.
The New York Times also reports that “Iraqi authorities have detained a few hundred foreign contractors in recent weeks, industry officials say, including many Americans who work for the United States Embassy, in one of the first major signs of the Iraqi government’s asserting its sovereignty after the American troop withdrawal last month.”
Most of the time, Iraqi officials claim the paperwork isn’t in order as their reason for detaining the workers. An adviser to Iraqi President Jalal Talabani told the Times, “The Iraqi public is not happy with security contractors. They caused a lot of pain.”
Afghanistan: Not a good 24-hour period, Thursday-Friday, as six U.S. Marines were killed in a helicopter crash, while four French soldiers were gunned down by an Afghan soldier they had been training. French President Sarkozy immediately suspended France’s participation in the critical training program for Afghan troops and there are fears France could withdraw all its troops early, which would be a huge blow to coalition efforts. Others would surely follow.
Pakistan: It was another chaotic week as Army chief Gen. Kayani and President Zardari met to clear the air and attempt to reach consensus on the current security situation in the country. Kayani is not looking to launch a coup, according to sources, but he may not mind if the Supreme Court dismisses the government.
To that end, Prime Minister Gilani appeared before the Court after being charged with contempt for not pursuing corruption allegations against Zardari, with Chief Justice Chaudhry warning: “If an institution like the Supreme Court is not respected and an attempt is made to lower its prestige in the eyes of the general public, then it would be very difficult to administer justice.”
The government believes new elections are the only way to break an impasse between the government, military and the Court, but elections are not due until next year. The Court adjourned Gilani’s hearing until Feb. 1.
Meanwhile, former cricket star Imran Khan continues to make waves, as the rising political star supports a court-sanctioned military removal of the government. Khan has drawn crowds nearing 100,000 the past few months.
Yemen: Al-Qaeda militants have seized full control of a town in the south, freeing 150 prisoners after overrunning an army position, killing two while the others fled, as reported by the AP. It’s not the first such town to fall to Al-Qaeda. And what’s the first thing that happens when they take over? The schools are closed.
Egypt: Military ruler Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi said his country is facing unprecedented “grave dangers,” this as the nation prepares for a new wave of protests planned for next week. The activists will be calling for the military to step down as they mark the first anniversary of the start of the uprising. The military has said it intends to hand power over to an elected president by the end of June, but no way the election takes place by then.
Speaking of which, Mohamed ElBaradei, the Nobel-Prize winning former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he was dropping his presidential bid in protest over the military’s continued rule.
“The former regime did not fall,” ElBaradei said in a statement. “My conscience does not permit me to run for the presidency or any other official position unless it is within a real democratic system.”
ElBaradei didn’t stand a chance of winning, but his endorsement could be important. In lower house of parliament voting, Islamists took roughly 70% of the vote, with similar results expected in the upper chamber.
Turkey: Tens of thousands protested in central Istanbul on Thursday, calling for more democracy and human rights. The government has vowed to enact judicial reforms.
The protest came on the anniversary of the killing of a Turkish-Armenian journalist and writer, Hrant Dink. On Tuesday, a court convicted just one of 19 alleged co-conspirators. Dink had written of the massacre of ethnic Armenians in 1915, thus drawing the ire of ultranationalists.
China: Saturday’s reelection of Taiwan President Ma was accompanied by a big sigh of relief in both Washington and Beijing, the latter not wanting to ready its 1,500 missiles targeting the island just yet. Ma captured 51.6% of the vote, six points ahead of his main challenger, Dr. Tsai, the chairwoman of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Tsai then quit as party boss. Ma won 58.4% of the vote in 2008.
“In the next four years, cross-strait relations will be more peaceful, with greater mutual trust and the chance of conflict will be less,” he said in his victory speech.
A spokesman for Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office said, “We sincerely hope that the Taiwan society could be stable and people live a happy life. We are willing to join hands with Taiwan’s [people from] all walks of life on the basis of continuing to oppose Taiwan independence and sticking to the ‘1992 consensus,’ to break new ground for the peaceful development of cross-strait relations.” [The 1992 consensus, an unofficial agreement that there is only one China, but with a different interpretation as to who is the legitimate sovereign representative, is not recognized by the DPP.]
President Ma may have improved relations with the mainland, but he faces big issues at home, namely stagnating wages, inequality, rising unemployment and home prices and rents that are out of reach of many in the cities.
By the way, voter turnout was 80%.
Other items…
--Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao called again for political reform, saying the people’s demands for same and the protection of their interests should be respected.
“I always emphasize that reform, not only economic reform but also political reform, should be carried out.
“It is of paramount importance for the government to maintain close ties with the people, listen to the public’s opinions and their voices and improve the government’s work, so as to better develop the economy, improve people’s livelihood and bring good to them.”
Along these lines, there have been significant protests lately, such as one involving thousands of Chinese workers at a Sanyo Electric Co. plant in Shenzhen, the workers protesting over compensation and job security. Sanyo and Panasonic are consolidating operations there and the workers are worried they’ll receive no compensation if let go.
--Premier Wen was a busy beaver, traveling to the Middle East to sign new energy deals, such as one with Saudi Arabia, as China needs to diversify sources, seeing as it gets 11% of its oil these days from Iran.
--For the first time, Beijing said the number of people living in cities outnumbered those living in the countryside, as more and more look for better economic opportunities in urban areas.
--Defense News confirmed that China test-launched six submarine-launched ballistic missiles sometime in December. As noted by Wendell Minnick:
“Such a capability could eventually allow China to launch a surprise attack on U.S. cities with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles.”
Well, that’s yet another reason to sleep with one eye open.
North Korea: Kim Jong Un’s older brother, Kim Jong Nam, told a journalist with Tokyo Shimbun that the new regime is “a joke,” and that the “regime will not last long.”
“Without reforms, North Korea will collapse, and [even if] such changes take place, the regime will collapse. I think we will see valuable time lost as the regime sits idle fretting over whether it should pursue reforms or stick to the present political structure.”
Not sure just where in exile the Namster is. He was deported from Japan years ago. He may be back there.
Meanwhile, Kim Jong Un’s main adviser, a Politburo member and family confidante, Yang Hyong Sop, told the Associated Press that Kim Jong Un is ready to lead, saying he spent years working closely with his father and helped him shape economic and military policy. Really. [The AP is the first Western news agency to open a bureau in Pyongyang.]
And correction…it turns out Kim Jong Un’s birthday is going to be February 16, the “Day of the Shining Star.” I’m assuming Earth, Wind & Fire was invited to play, though hopefully they turned down the invitation.
Russia: Surprisingly, at least to yours truly, Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has improved the past few weeks despite the protests against his rule. One survey now has 45% ready to vote for Putin on March 4, up from 42%. Veteran Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov is at 10%. [Another survey I saw has Putin at 42%, with Zyuganov and nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky tied with 9%.] Putin needs 50% to avoid a run-off.
The current president, Dmitry Medvedev, made a concession to the opposition by pledging to restore direct elections for regional governors, such elections having been abolished by Putin in 2004. But lest you think this is a significant move, the Kremlin will have a major say in who the candidates are through a “presidential filter.”
Putin himself launched an attack on the West, writing in Izvestia of his candidacy:
“In several regions of the planet destructive forces are becoming more active and aggressive, ultimately threatening the security of all nations in the world. Those states that are trying to ‘export democracy’ through the use of military methods objectively become their allies at times.
“Even the best of intentions do not justify the violation of international law and the sovereignty of states.”
On a different topic, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak acknowledged that preparations for the 2014 Sochi Olympic Games are not where they should be. Out of 400 venues, 70 are well behind schedule. You couldn’t pay me to go to these Olympics. It could be terror central.
Finally, as the Fobos-Grunt Mars space probe crashed into the Pacific Ocean the other day, only about 10,000 miles from where the Kremlin initially said it would, the investigation into why the probe went haywire shortly after takeoff continues and the government said it will conduct tests to see whether U.S. radar played a role in the spacecraft’s failure, as I noted last week. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who hates the U.S., said, “This theory has a right to be presented.”
It is indeed very possible U.S. radars located in Alaska, which are as powerful as any in the world, and for good reason, could have affected the probe. But even Rogozin conceded the failure could also be a result of defective equipment. Regardless, it is going to be interesting to see how this plays out.
France: Losing its AAA-credit rating may not have impacted France’s bond market yet, but it hurt President Sarkozy’s reputation, having pinned so much of it on his country’s financial standing, and now, ahead of the April 22 presidential vote, he is trying to persuade French workers to take pay cuts in exchange for job security. The size of the state is choking growth in France; a full 56% of the economy vs. 46% in both Germany and Italy. There are 18% more state workers than in 2002, and the unemployment rate is up to 9.9%.
As for the election, an Ifop survey has Socialist Francois Hollande at 27%, with Sarkozy at 23.5% and National Front candidate Marine Le Pen at 21.5%. I’ve predicted Marine will prevent Sarkozy from gaining the run-off, which French voters say he’d lose anyway by a wide margin to Hollande. Marine’s father, Jean-Marie, moved onto the second round in 2002.
Another poll, LH2, has Hollande at 30, Sarkozy at 23.5, and Le Pen at 17, though she was rising in this one.
Nigeria: Trade unions called off a debilitating nationwide strike after the government cut fuel prices by a third and promised to tackle corruption in the oil sector. President Goodluck Jonathan had removed the subsidy on the price of gasoline on Jan. 1, but was forced to give in, though the price is still substantially higher than the old one.
But Jonathan has to remove the subsidy eventually. It costs $8 billion a year, or more than the combined 2012 budgets for health, education, housing and social welfare.
And here’s a depressing item. The main suspect in a Christmas Day bomb attack on a church that killed 37 escaped within 24 hours of his arrest. Police caught the guy on Tuesday and while they were taking him to his house to conduct a search, their vehicle came under fire and in the process the suspect got away. [Boko Harem conducted more bombings on Friday, killing at least seven.]
Kosovo: 140 were arrested after police clashed with protesters who were trying to stop traffic from Serbia from entering the territory. Serbia, you’ll recall, doesn’t recognize Kosovo’s independence, which it declared in 2008.
Britain: Here’s a sleeper potential flashpoint…the Falklands. Prime Minister David Cameron has approved a contingency plan for a rapid increase in Britain’s military force there should Argentina act up as the 30th anniversary of the 1982 conflict is approaching. 255 British servicemen and 652 Argentines died in the war. What could add to the tension is the presence of Prince William, who has lobbied to take his deployment as a search and rescue co-pilot there next month and in March. I would back off a few months if I were the Brits and tell William to do it later in the year. Argentina invaded the islands in April of ’82. There is, however, no evidence Argentina is preparing a move today.
Top U.S. officials have been meeting with Israel to try and convince the Netanyahu government not to launch a preemptive strike on Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons facilities in the hope of setting the program back a few years, the U.S. preferring that sanctions be given longer to strangle the Iranian economy and perhaps precipitate a change in regime, or have the current leadership climb down and agree to international controls on its nuclear efforts.
The U.S. and Israel were to have conducted the largest joint air defense exercises between the two, ever, this April but they were postponed, with an Israeli spokesman saying the “timing is not right,” even as other representatives of both governments said the postponement was for technical reasons. We know who is telling the truth on this one.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Israel was “very far off” from finalizing any plan to employ force, while Israeli intelligence said Iran has not yet committed to actually building a bomb.
Saudi Arabia said that if Iran were to shut the strait, the kingdom would ramp up production to meet Iran’s lost supply and then some, as I’ve argued for years now, but Tehran warned the Saudis against doing so.
Those are some of the facts. Here’s what else we know. The White House’s latest effort to get its allies to refuse Iranian oil exports has been a big time failure, with the exception of the EU, sort of. Just a week ago, Japan acted as if it would stop taking in Iranian oil after long-term contracts were honored, but now Japan is backing off, not knowing how it would plug the hole in demand. South Korea said it can’t afford to risk damaging its fragile economy by not taking in Iran’s oil at this time. China, as I noted last time, said it wouldn’t comply, though it denounced Iran’s pursuit of nukes. This week India also said it would ignore the U.S. sanctions regime and only honor existing UN resolutions, so India will continue to accept Iran’s oil. And the European Union will ban the oil, but it is waiting until summer to give Greece, Portugal and Spain time to find alternative suppliers.
We also know that per my discussion of last week on Dimona, Israel’s nuclear reactor, that it is indeed being shut down soon. I told you what that means. Israel would do this to limit the damage from any fallout should Iran strike it in retaliation for a move on Iran’s facilities.
We also know that the odds of a misstep or miscalculation on the part of the Iranians increases with each day as its naval forces ply the same waters as the United States, the latter continuing to increase its presence.
At the same time, Israel’s government is being pressured by some of its coalition members to be tougher, though Netanyahu has said, “For the first time I see Iran wobble” due to the sanctions.
As for my opinion, I maintain my May timetable of a U.S. strike despite all the talk to the contrary. Again, it’s about the political calendar. I hope Iran backs down beforehand, and that there isn’t a mistake in the waters that could lead to war.
Just understand that Israel cannot, and will not allow Iran to get the bomb. Netanyahu would never let this happen on his watch. The U.S., with its firepower, needs to be part of any operation. Imagine, for example, Iran with the bomb and what Hizbullah could do. It wouldn’t be too easy for Israel to move into Lebanon with Hizbullah acting under an Iranian nuclear umbrella.
This week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned against the U.S. or Israel acting preemptively. “The consequences will be extremely grave…It will trigger a chain reaction and I don’t know where it will stop.”
Russia wants talks between the six powers and Iran to resume. I don’t believe it will get to that.
Finally, Mark Helprin wrote the following in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal.
“To assume that Iran will not close the Strait of Hormuz is to assume that primitive religious fanatics will perform cost-benefit analyses the way they are done at Wharton. They won’t, especially if the oil that is their life’s blood is threatened. If Iran does close the strait, we will fight an air and naval war derivative of and yet peripheral to the Iranian nuclear program, a mortal threat the president of the United States has inadequately addressed.
“A mortal threat when Iran is not yet in possession of a nuclear arsenal? Yes, because immediately upon possession all remedies are severely restricted. Without doubt, Iran has long wanted nuclear weapons – to deter American intervention in its and neighboring territories; to threaten Europe and thereby cleave it from American interests in the Middle East; to respond to the former Iraqi nuclear effort; to counter the contiguous nuclear presences in Pakistan, Russia and the U.S. in the Gulf; to neutralize Israel’s nuclear deterrent so as to limit it to the attrition of conventional battle, or to destroy it with one lucky shot; to lead the Islamic world; to correct the security imbalance with Saudi Arabia, which aided by geography and American arms now outclasses it; and to threaten the U.S. directly….
“It is true that Iranian proxies would attempt to exact a price in terror worldwide, but this is not new, we would brace for the reprisals, and although they would peak, they would then subside. The cost would be far less than that of permitting the power of nuclear destruction to a vengeful, martyrdom-obsessed state in the midst of a never-subsiding fury against the West.
“Any president of the United States fit for the office should someday, soon, say to the American people that in his judgment Iran – because of its longstanding and implacable push for nuclear weapons, its express hostility to the U.S., Israel and the West, and its record of barbarity and terror – must be deprived of the capacity to wound this country and its allies such as they have never been wounded before.
“Relying solely upon his oath, holding in abeyance any consideration of politics or transient opinion, and eager to defend his decision in exquisite detail, he should order the armed forces of the United States to attack and destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons complex. When they have complied, and our pilots are in the air on their way home, they will have protected our children in their beds – and our children’s children, many years from now, in theirs. May this country always have clear enough sight and strong enough will to stand for itself in the face of mortal threat, and in time.”
Israel: Separate from all the above, the Jerusalem Post reported that the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) “has ordered the Southern Command to prepare for a possible large Gaza operation that could occur within the next few months.”
A member of the General Staff said this week, “Gaza is possibly Israel’s most volatile front today. It is a front that can explode at any given moment.”
Hamas’ weaponry has grown significantly and it’s estimated they have a fighting force of 20,000, while the IDF is concerned with the smuggling of sophisticated weaponry into Gaza – such as Russian made anti-tank missiles and shoulder-to-air missiles that were stolen from Libyan military storehouses.
On a different topic, Israel and Saudi Arabia are engaged in a cyberwar, with each attacking the websites of each other’s stock markets and other interests. Israel’s El Al was hit, for example. Both sides have left little doubt their actions are politically motivated. Israel’s deputy foreign minister, Danny Ayalon, said Israel regarded any hack attack as “comparable to terrorism,” and vowed to respond in kind.
Syria: The Arab League’s observer mission is over, at least for a few days, and a most fruitless one it has been as violence actually picked up while the monitors were there. The monitors were supposed to determine if the Bashar Assad regime had kept its pledge to end the crackdown and they quickly learned that wasn’t the case.
Immediately after they left a place, the Syrian troops would move back in. Arab foreign ministers are to meet on Sunday to plot their next step. Last week on “60 Minutes” the emir of Qatar said sending Arab troops in to halt the bloodshed was a distinct possibility but this seems highly unlikely. An extension of the mission, though, is possible. What we do know is Iran’s head of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force has been in Syria, no doubt coordinating military aid from Tehran.
Civil war has broken out, whether some want to use the term or not. The opposition is now in control in the town of Zabadani, near Damascus, while Assad is having problems in parts of Damascus itself. The death toll is now over 5,400 in the ten months of the uprising.
Last Sunday in Beirut, at a conference on democracy in the Arab world, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said, “Today, I say again to President Assad: Stop the violence. Stop killing your people”
Ban added, on the topic of the Arab Spring in general:
“It is sometimes said that authoritarian regimes, whatever else their faults, at least kept a lid on sectarian conflict. This is a cruel canard. Yet it would be equally mistaken to assume that all of the new regimes now emerging will automatically uphold universal human rights….
“The old way, the old order, is crumbling. One-man rule and the perpetuation of family dynasties, monopolies of wealth and power, the silencing of the media, the deprivation of fundamental freedoms that are the birthright of every man, woman and child on this planet – to all of this, the people say: Enough!” [Washington Post]
Ban also addressed the topic of Hizbullah in Lebanon, saying he was “deeply concerned about the military capacity of Hizbullah and…the lack of progress in disarmament.”
To which Hizbullah leader Sheikh Nasrallah replied: “Our concern is that our people are comforted that there is a resistance in Lebanon and we will not allow a new occupation or another violation.” So, no, he will not disarm.
[Beirut was rocked this week by a building collapse that claimed 27 lives. Entire neighborhoods are probably unsafe as structures built in the 1950s in particular have flimsy foundations on what is basically sand.]
Iraq: The leader of the secular Iraqiya party, Ayad Allawi, said “Sectarianism is coming back in force in this country. Iraq is passing through the most dangerous phase in its history.” In just two instances in the past week, 53 Shiite pilgrims were killed as they headed towards a Sunni town for a religious celebration, while 21 were killed in fighting at a police compound in Ramadi.
The New York Times also reports that “Iraqi authorities have detained a few hundred foreign contractors in recent weeks, industry officials say, including many Americans who work for the United States Embassy, in one of the first major signs of the Iraqi government’s asserting its sovereignty after the American troop withdrawal last month.”
Most of the time, Iraqi officials claim the paperwork isn’t in order as their reason for detaining the workers. An adviser to Iraqi President Jalal Talabani told the Times, “The Iraqi public is not happy with security contractors. They caused a lot of pain.”
Afghanistan: Not a good 24-hour period, Thursday-Friday, as six U.S. Marines were killed in a helicopter crash, while four French soldiers were gunned down by an Afghan soldier they had been training. French President Sarkozy immediately suspended France’s participation in the critical training program for Afghan troops and there are fears France could withdraw all its troops early, which would be a huge blow to coalition efforts. Others would surely follow.
Pakistan: It was another chaotic week as Army chief Gen. Kayani and President Zardari met to clear the air and attempt to reach consensus on the current security situation in the country. Kayani is not looking to launch a coup, according to sources, but he may not mind if the Supreme Court dismisses the government.
To that end, Prime Minister Gilani appeared before the Court after being charged with contempt for not pursuing corruption allegations against Zardari, with Chief Justice Chaudhry warning: “If an institution like the Supreme Court is not respected and an attempt is made to lower its prestige in the eyes of the general public, then it would be very difficult to administer justice.”
The government believes new elections are the only way to break an impasse between the government, military and the Court, but elections are not due until next year. The Court adjourned Gilani’s hearing until Feb. 1.
Meanwhile, former cricket star Imran Khan continues to make waves, as the rising political star supports a court-sanctioned military removal of the government. Khan has drawn crowds nearing 100,000 the past few months.
Yemen: Al-Qaeda militants have seized full control of a town in the south, freeing 150 prisoners after overrunning an army position, killing two while the others fled, as reported by the AP. It’s not the first such town to fall to Al-Qaeda. And what’s the first thing that happens when they take over? The schools are closed.
Egypt: Military ruler Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi said his country is facing unprecedented “grave dangers,” this as the nation prepares for a new wave of protests planned for next week. The activists will be calling for the military to step down as they mark the first anniversary of the start of the uprising. The military has said it intends to hand power over to an elected president by the end of June, but no way the election takes place by then.
Speaking of which, Mohamed ElBaradei, the Nobel-Prize winning former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he was dropping his presidential bid in protest over the military’s continued rule.
“The former regime did not fall,” ElBaradei said in a statement. “My conscience does not permit me to run for the presidency or any other official position unless it is within a real democratic system.”
ElBaradei didn’t stand a chance of winning, but his endorsement could be important. In lower house of parliament voting, Islamists took roughly 70% of the vote, with similar results expected in the upper chamber.
Turkey: Tens of thousands protested in central Istanbul on Thursday, calling for more democracy and human rights. The government has vowed to enact judicial reforms.
The protest came on the anniversary of the killing of a Turkish-Armenian journalist and writer, Hrant Dink. On Tuesday, a court convicted just one of 19 alleged co-conspirators. Dink had written of the massacre of ethnic Armenians in 1915, thus drawing the ire of ultranationalists.
China: Saturday’s reelection of Taiwan President Ma was accompanied by a big sigh of relief in both Washington and Beijing, the latter not wanting to ready its 1,500 missiles targeting the island just yet. Ma captured 51.6% of the vote, six points ahead of his main challenger, Dr. Tsai, the chairwoman of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Tsai then quit as party boss. Ma won 58.4% of the vote in 2008.
“In the next four years, cross-strait relations will be more peaceful, with greater mutual trust and the chance of conflict will be less,” he said in his victory speech.
A spokesman for Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office said, “We sincerely hope that the Taiwan society could be stable and people live a happy life. We are willing to join hands with Taiwan’s [people from] all walks of life on the basis of continuing to oppose Taiwan independence and sticking to the ‘1992 consensus,’ to break new ground for the peaceful development of cross-strait relations.” [The 1992 consensus, an unofficial agreement that there is only one China, but with a different interpretation as to who is the legitimate sovereign representative, is not recognized by the DPP.]
President Ma may have improved relations with the mainland, but he faces big issues at home, namely stagnating wages, inequality, rising unemployment and home prices and rents that are out of reach of many in the cities.
By the way, voter turnout was 80%.
Other items…
--Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao called again for political reform, saying the people’s demands for same and the protection of their interests should be respected.
“I always emphasize that reform, not only economic reform but also political reform, should be carried out.
“It is of paramount importance for the government to maintain close ties with the people, listen to the public’s opinions and their voices and improve the government’s work, so as to better develop the economy, improve people’s livelihood and bring good to them.”
Along these lines, there have been significant protests lately, such as one involving thousands of Chinese workers at a Sanyo Electric Co. plant in Shenzhen, the workers protesting over compensation and job security. Sanyo and Panasonic are consolidating operations there and the workers are worried they’ll receive no compensation if let go.
--Premier Wen was a busy beaver, traveling to the Middle East to sign new energy deals, such as one with Saudi Arabia, as China needs to diversify sources, seeing as it gets 11% of its oil these days from Iran.
--For the first time, Beijing said the number of people living in cities outnumbered those living in the countryside, as more and more look for better economic opportunities in urban areas.
--Defense News confirmed that China test-launched six submarine-launched ballistic missiles sometime in December. As noted by Wendell Minnick:
“Such a capability could eventually allow China to launch a surprise attack on U.S. cities with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles.”
Well, that’s yet another reason to sleep with one eye open.
North Korea: Kim Jong Un’s older brother, Kim Jong Nam, told a journalist with Tokyo Shimbun that the new regime is “a joke,” and that the “regime will not last long.”
“Without reforms, North Korea will collapse, and [even if] such changes take place, the regime will collapse. I think we will see valuable time lost as the regime sits idle fretting over whether it should pursue reforms or stick to the present political structure.”
Not sure just where in exile the Namster is. He was deported from Japan years ago. He may be back there.
Meanwhile, Kim Jong Un’s main adviser, a Politburo member and family confidante, Yang Hyong Sop, told the Associated Press that Kim Jong Un is ready to lead, saying he spent years working closely with his father and helped him shape economic and military policy. Really. [The AP is the first Western news agency to open a bureau in Pyongyang.]
And correction…it turns out Kim Jong Un’s birthday is going to be February 16, the “Day of the Shining Star.” I’m assuming Earth, Wind & Fire was invited to play, though hopefully they turned down the invitation.
Russia: Surprisingly, at least to yours truly, Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has improved the past few weeks despite the protests against his rule. One survey now has 45% ready to vote for Putin on March 4, up from 42%. Veteran Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov is at 10%. [Another survey I saw has Putin at 42%, with Zyuganov and nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky tied with 9%.] Putin needs 50% to avoid a run-off.
The current president, Dmitry Medvedev, made a concession to the opposition by pledging to restore direct elections for regional governors, such elections having been abolished by Putin in 2004. But lest you think this is a significant move, the Kremlin will have a major say in who the candidates are through a “presidential filter.”
Putin himself launched an attack on the West, writing in Izvestia of his candidacy:
“In several regions of the planet destructive forces are becoming more active and aggressive, ultimately threatening the security of all nations in the world. Those states that are trying to ‘export democracy’ through the use of military methods objectively become their allies at times.
“Even the best of intentions do not justify the violation of international law and the sovereignty of states.”
On a different topic, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak acknowledged that preparations for the 2014 Sochi Olympic Games are not where they should be. Out of 400 venues, 70 are well behind schedule. You couldn’t pay me to go to these Olympics. It could be terror central.
Finally, as the Fobos-Grunt Mars space probe crashed into the Pacific Ocean the other day, only about 10,000 miles from where the Kremlin initially said it would, the investigation into why the probe went haywire shortly after takeoff continues and the government said it will conduct tests to see whether U.S. radar played a role in the spacecraft’s failure, as I noted last week. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who hates the U.S., said, “This theory has a right to be presented.”
It is indeed very possible U.S. radars located in Alaska, which are as powerful as any in the world, and for good reason, could have affected the probe. But even Rogozin conceded the failure could also be a result of defective equipment. Regardless, it is going to be interesting to see how this plays out.
France: Losing its AAA-credit rating may not have impacted France’s bond market yet, but it hurt President Sarkozy’s reputation, having pinned so much of it on his country’s financial standing, and now, ahead of the April 22 presidential vote, he is trying to persuade French workers to take pay cuts in exchange for job security. The size of the state is choking growth in France; a full 56% of the economy vs. 46% in both Germany and Italy. There are 18% more state workers than in 2002, and the unemployment rate is up to 9.9%.
As for the election, an Ifop survey has Socialist Francois Hollande at 27%, with Sarkozy at 23.5% and National Front candidate Marine Le Pen at 21.5%. I’ve predicted Marine will prevent Sarkozy from gaining the run-off, which French voters say he’d lose anyway by a wide margin to Hollande. Marine’s father, Jean-Marie, moved onto the second round in 2002.
Another poll, LH2, has Hollande at 30, Sarkozy at 23.5, and Le Pen at 17, though she was rising in this one.
Nigeria: Trade unions called off a debilitating nationwide strike after the government cut fuel prices by a third and promised to tackle corruption in the oil sector. President Goodluck Jonathan had removed the subsidy on the price of gasoline on Jan. 1, but was forced to give in, though the price is still substantially higher than the old one.
But Jonathan has to remove the subsidy eventually. It costs $8 billion a year, or more than the combined 2012 budgets for health, education, housing and social welfare.
And here’s a depressing item. The main suspect in a Christmas Day bomb attack on a church that killed 37 escaped within 24 hours of his arrest. Police caught the guy on Tuesday and while they were taking him to his house to conduct a search, their vehicle came under fire and in the process the suspect got away. [Boko Harem conducted more bombings on Friday, killing at least seven.]
Kosovo: 140 were arrested after police clashed with protesters who were trying to stop traffic from Serbia from entering the territory. Serbia, you’ll recall, doesn’t recognize Kosovo’s independence, which it declared in 2008.
Britain: Here’s a sleeper potential flashpoint…the Falklands. Prime Minister David Cameron has approved a contingency plan for a rapid increase in Britain’s military force there should Argentina act up as the 30th anniversary of the 1982 conflict is approaching. 255 British servicemen and 652 Argentines died in the war. What could add to the tension is the presence of Prince William, who has lobbied to take his deployment as a search and rescue co-pilot there next month and in March. I would back off a few months if I were the Brits and tell William to do it later in the year. Argentina invaded the islands in April of ’82. There is, however, no evidence Argentina is preparing a move today.