Week in Review Part III: Foreign Affairs

Egypt: Following a week of demonstrations, a second revolution by all appearances, this time against the ruling Military Council, the generals agreed to form a new “national salvation” government, with former prime minister Kamal Ganzouri at the head, but protesters vowed to continue with their demands that the army quit power. At least 40 have been killed in Cairo and elsewhere.

The thing is, multi-stage parliamentary elections (lasting weeks) are slated to begin on Monday and the military has said they will proceed as scheduled. How can they? The generals did make a major concession in saying they would now hold presidential elections by next June, rather than 2013, as their latest shifting calendar had called for, but the opposition says that’s not good enough.

If I were them, I’d accept the new timetable, which it appears the Muslim Brotherhood is ready to do…not that I’m giving them my campaign dollars.
Iran: The government said it had arrested 12 spies with ties to the CIA, though wouldn’t say anything as to their nationalities. An official said, “The U.S. and Zionist regime’s espionage apparatuses were trying to use regional intelligence services, both inside and outside Iran, in order to deal a strong blow to our country. Fortunately, these steps failed.” [More on the spy issue in a bit.]

Meanwhile, the U.S., U.K. and Canada imposed new sanctions on Iran, including measures to restrict the central bank, though only Britain said it would cut all financial ties, including to the Central Bank of Iran, while the U.S. stopped short of actually banning dealings with Iranian banks. U.S. Treasury Sec.
Timothy Geithner did offer:

“If you are a financial institution and you engage in any transaction involving Iran’s central bank or any other Iranian bank operating inside or outside Iran, you are at risk of supporting Iran’s illicit activities,” activities which include “its pursuit of nuclear weapons, its support for terrorism, and its efforts to deceive responsible financial institutions and evade sanctions.”
Boy, that’s harsh, Timothy.


Editorial / Washington Post

“The Obama administration pledged that Iran would suffer painful consequences from plotting to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington and for refusing to freeze its nuclear program. Key European allies and Congress – not to mention Israel – are ready for decisive action. But on Monday the administration unveiled another series of half-steps. Sanctions were toughened on Iran’s oil industry, but there was no move to block its exports. The Iranian banking system was designated ‘a primary money laundering concern,’ a step U.S. officials said could prompt banks and companies around the world to cease doing business with the country. But the administration declined to directly sanction the central bank.

“The result is that President Obama is not even leading from behind on Iran; he is simply behind….

“The administration’s slowness to embrace crippling sanctions is one of several persistent flaws in its Iran policy. Another is its continued insistence on the possibility of ‘engagement’ with a regime that has repeatedly rejected it while plotting murder in Washington. ‘The United States is committed to engagement,’ Sec. of State Hillary Clinton asserted on Monday. Some European officials say they are concerned by the concessions the administration appears prepared to offer Tehran if there are new talks.

“By now it should be obvious that only regime change will stop the Iranian nuclear program….Sanctions that stop Iran from exporting oil and importing gasoline could deal a decisive blow to (Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s) dictatorship, which already faced an Arab Spring-like popular revolt two years ago. By holding back on such measures, the Obama administration merely makes it more likely that drastic action, such as a military attack, eventually will be taken by Israel, or forced on the United States.”

As for Russia and China, both condemned the new round of sanctions, saying it exacerbated the crisis and would make renewing negotiations virtually impossible.

Finally, the brother of a leading Revolutionary Guard Corps commander killed in a Nov. 12 blast said the commander, Gen. Moqadam, was at a test of an experimental intercontinental ballistic missile when it failed. 20 others were killed. At his funeral, Moqadam was called the “founder” of Iran’s missile program. This doesn’t mean the CIA or Mossad couldn’t have still sabotaged the test.

Syria: In an exclusive interview with the Sunday Times of London, President Bashar al-Assad said, “The conflict will continue and the pressure to subjugate Syria will also continue. However, I assure you that Syria will not bow down and that it will continue to resist the pressure being imposed on it.”
Assad claims he began the reform process six days after the start of protests in Syria, but, “After eight months the picture is clear to us…It is not a question of peaceful demonstrations but an armed operation.”

Assad went on to warn that any attack on Syria would be an earthquake that would shake the entire Middle East.

After an attack on a bus carrying Turkish pilgrims in Syria on Monday, though, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan addressed Assad, “You can remain in power with tanks and cannons only up to a certain point. The day will come when you’ll also leave.”

The next day, for the first time Erdogan directly called on Assad to step down.

“Without spilling any more blood, without causing any more injustice, for the sake of peace for the people, the country and the region, finally step down.”
Pakistan: In a still breaking development that could have major consequences for U.S.-Pakistani relations, Pakistan is claiming at least 26 of its soldiers were killed when NATO helicopters fired on an army checkpoint in the northwest, Friday night. Its immediate response has been to close a key border crossing used by the coalition to supply its troops in Afghanistan.

Lebanon: In a big blow for the CIA, several informants have been arrested in Beirut this year, the agency was forced to concede. “Beirut station is out of business,” a source told the Los Angeles Times. Up to a dozen informants have been compromised, according to the source. U.S. officials say, however, that the number is not accurate, nor are the stories of sloppy work involving meetings held at a local Pizza Hut. The source maintains that the CIA station chief in Lebanon was too trustful of his Lebanese contacts.

Lebanon’s security service was able to identify the informants by analyzing cellphone records and using software to help identify quick calls, especially those made near an embassy.

Former CIA officers told the AP that the agency has suffered an erosion of “tradecraft,” especially with the focus on fighting terrorists rather than traditional counterintelligence.

Back in June, Hizbullah leader Sheikh Nasrallah said “The U.S. Embassy…is a nest of spies recruiting [spies] to serve Israel.”

As to the fate of those whose covers have been blown, former senior CIA officer Robert Baer told ABC News: “If they were genuine spies, spying against Hizbullah, I don’t think we’ll ever see them again. These guys are very, very vicious and unforgiving.”

Meanwhile, Hizbullah continues to prepare for war with Israel, though its primary immediate concern, talking weeks, is the fate of the Assad regime in Syria.

Longer-term, it is just assumed that should Israel strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, Hizbullah will fill the role of Iran’s proxy in launching a massive missile strike on Israel, while its terror cells in Latin America are activated against Jewish interests there and possibly the United States.

Iraq: As the U.S. prepares to withdraw by yearend, three bombs went off in a popular market in Basra on Thursday. The first two drew in Iraqi security forces and then the third caused all the fatalities, at least 19 dead. What’s disturbing about this particular attack is Basra is where many foreign oil companies have offices and it’s the center of Iraq’s energy sector.

Yemen: Once again, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh said he would step down as he signed a deal to relinquish power in Saudi Arabia, an agreement with the opposition brokered by Saudi King Abdullah. But thousands of demonstrators then took to the streets over the deal’s promise of immunity from prosecution for both Saleh and his family. Pro-Saleh supporters proceeded to kill at least five of the demonstrators. After 33 years of rule, many just don’t believe Saleh is finally history, but he is slated to come to the U.S. for medical treatment.

Regardless, the agreement for handing over power is a complicated one, including the new power-sharing arrangement, and I wouldn’t get too bullish about Yemen’s prospects; like don’t waste your time discussing this over Christmas dinner.

Libya: Members of one of the 25 militias in Libya captured Muammar Gaddafi’s son, Saif, but as of this writing have not turned him over to the interim government, which wants to try him, or extradite him to The Hague. Said a leader of the militia, “If you ask to take him to Tripoli, it is like you are saying it is a different country. We have the same courts here. We could put him on trial here – why not?”

Oh yeah, this is another winner.

Bahrain: King Hamed conceded his security forces used torture and excessive force against mostly Shiite Muslim protesters during the March uprising in which at least 35 were killed. After a five-month investigation outlined a series of abuses, Hamed said those responsible would be punished and indeed charges against security force members have been filed. The inquiry also said Iran’s involvement was nil, but on this Hamed insisted, “Iran’s propaganda fueled the flames of sectarian strife.”

China/Taiwan: Worrisomely, Taiwanese President Ma’s popularity is sliding as the island gears up for an election on Jan. 14. [I admit to not seeing the extent of the slide coming.] Should he somehow lose to neophyte Tsai Ing-wen, it would be a huge blow for China-Taiwan relations and guaranteed to raise tensions, even as Tsai tries to reassure both China and the West that she will continue many of the policies that have led to better relations between the two. The problem that Ma has is the emergence of a second China-friendly candidate that could siphon votes away from Ma, a la some of America’s past third party candidacies.

Ma is facing trouble because last month he strongly hinted he wanted to sign a peace treaty with China within the next decade, the first time he has ever given a timetable for negotiating this most sensitive issue. [On this I correctly informed you at the time.] Tsai’s focus is on social welfare and the weakening global economy can only help her candidacy.

Regarding U.S.-China relations, President Obama met on the sidelines of an Asian summit with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, a meeting requested by Wen after the Chinese leader was upset over the summit’s focus on the South China Sea, with both Obama and Sec. of State Clinton warning China to curb its aggression, thus enraging Beijing. Wen defended China’s stance on the sea and said it is not a topic for multinational gatherings, as the U.S. wants it to be.

But the fact is 16 of the 18 nations present at the summit brought up maritime security, all insisting on a multilateral resolution.

Chinese government mouthpieces responded in editorials, such as from Chinese-language Xinhua.

“The aim of America’s strategic move east is in fact to pin down and contain China and counterbalance China’s development.”

China Daily accused the United States of “scaremongering,” and declared, “East Asia not U.S. playground.”

Russia: The populace is tiring of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, just as he gears up to return to the presidency next spring. His approval rating is still a high 60%, but this is down from 78%, while the number disapproving is rising rapidly. In fact, Putin was booed at a martial arts fight in Moscow, an unheard of occurrence and an event broadcast live on Russian television. Following the fight, Putin went into the center of the ring to congratulate the winner and was immediately drowned out in a chorus of cat-calls. His image-makers certainly didn’t plan on this happening.

But on the issue of NATO’s anti-missile shield, Russian President Medvedev followed his boss’ comments of the week before in warning the U.S. to take into account Russia’s objections to the current plans for the shield, repeating a 2007 threat to deploy cruise missiles in Russia’s Kaliningrad, aimed at NATO missile batteries. So nice reset, Barack!

Next Sunday, Dec. 4, is the date of Russia’s parliamentary elections and it appears Putin and Medvedev’s United Russia party’s popularity is plunging. This is going to be exceedingly interesting. How badly will the vote be rigged? You just know the Kremlin is furiously prepping officials at the polling places. An outrageous outcome, one that is clearly suspect, could lead to sweeping demonstrations and I’m not so sure the Kremlin is prepared for this. I’m also as convinced as ever of my theory there could be a coup orchestrated by a shadowy third force within the next year.

France: President Sarkozy’s poll numbers are improving ahead of next spring’s election, with one French polling agency having him at 29%, vs. 32% for the Socialist candidate Francois Hollande, while National Front candidate Marine Le Pen is at 19%.   A month ago, the same survey had Hollande leading 39-23. In a runoff, however, Hollande would still defeat Sarkozy handily, though the gap is down to 16 from 28.

For her part, Le Pen is calling for France to abandon the euro and no telling where sentiment on this issue will be six months from now. She is still very much capable of pulling off an upset and getting into the run-off.

Mexico: This country is gearing up for a presidential election next year as President Felipe Calderon cannot run for another term. There is growing concern narco-terrorists will disrupt the election in a big way, threatening poll workers and telling people how to vote.

Separately, soldiers in a well-to-do neighborhood in Tijuana searched a car and found $15.3 million in cash, believed to belong to the country’s most wanted drug lord, Joaquin ‘Shorty’ Guzman, of the Sinaloa cartel.

And in the once placid city of Guadalajara (Mexico’s second-largest), 26 bound and gagged bodies were found Thursday in abandoned vehicles, another sign of the still escalating drug violence. Each of the dead had been shot in the head. 24 hours earlier, the charred remains of 16 were found in Sinaloa state. The two incidents could be tied. Poor Guadalajara is hosting an international book fair, billed as the largest in the Spanish-speaking world, this weekend with an expected 600,000 visitors. I will not be attending.