Week in Review Part III: Foreign Affairs

Published 11/23/2011, 06:42 AM
Iran: In a meeting on Friday with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said he would raise American concerns over the unintended consequences of a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Panetta reiterated the most effective way to confront Iran is through increased sanctions and diplomatic pressure.

A foreign affairs adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that he did not think a military attack on Iran was imminent.

Meanwhile, Washington and the West wanted the International Atomic Energy Agency’s 35-member board to approve a clear resolution condemning Iran, including referral to the U.N. Security Council, but only received the first part. The new IAEA resolution calls on Iran to clear up outstanding questions about its nuclear capabilities, with Russia and China sharing in the concern, but it’s toothless.  The two had criticized the IAEA for releasing its latest report that Russia says is just a “compilation of well-known facts.” Moscow’s foreign ministry office even compared the IAEA’s report to the false intelligence on Saddam Hussein’s nuclear activities used to justify the invasion of Iraq.

But while the negotiating takes place, behind the scenes the covert war continues, with Iran conceding that one of the 17 men killed in a huge explosion last weekend at a Revolutionary Guard munitions depot was a key commander who headed Iran’s missile program, Gen. Hasan Moghaddam, while the state news agency reported that scientists had discovered a new computer virus in their systems, a more sophisticated version of the Stuxnet worm that was designed to infect Iran’s centrifuges.

Iran claimed the massive explosion, that could be felt over 25 miles away in Tehran, was an accident, but most believe it is part of an ongoing CIA / Mossad operation to eliminate Iran’s nuclear weapons threat.

Syria: The Arab League issued a three-day ultimatum insisting that Syria halt the violence against protesters or face further economic sanctions, though an earlier ultimatum had zero impact on President Bashar al-Assad’s crackdown.

What has had an impact is the rebel Free Syrian Army, created back in July by defectors from the regular army. It has formed a temporary military council to oust Assad and protect civilians. A statement from the council said it aims to “bring down the current regime, protect Syrian civilians from its oppression, protect private and public property, and prevent chaos and acts of revenge when it falls.”

Free Syrian Army fighters attacked a military intelligence base in a Damascus suburb, killing six soldiers in their boldest move yet.

Separately, Turkey is considering the establishment of a no-fly zone inside Syria, as Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan called on the world to “hear the screams” from Syria and act urgently to end the violence.

“The lack of reaction to massacres in Syria is causing irreparable wounds in the conscience of humanity,” he said.

A key leader of the Syrian opposition weighed in. “The Syrian people would accept intervention coming from Turkey, rather than from the West, if its goal was to protect the people. We may ask more from Turkey as a neighbor.” [London Times]

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov concluded, “This is all looking very much like a civil war,” while Jordan’s King Abdullah II became the first Arab leader to publicly call for Assad to quit, after which Assad supporters stormed the Jordanian embassy. Earlier, thugs attacked the embassies of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Michael Young / Daily Star

“The mendacity, the arrogance, the condescension, the surreal levels of criminality, have all been in full view these past months, as the Assads have slaughtered their people without flinching. The Arab states gave the Syrian regime ample time to stifle the dissension, until they saw that Bashar Assad was going to lose anyway. Panic has set in as the intifada veers toward a Sunni-Alawite war [Ed. Syria is majority Sunni, but the Assads head the minority Alawite sect], which would have dire repercussions for Syria’s neighbors, and the Arab world in general.

“One should have faith. A people that has mostly avoided resorting to arms through eight months of carnage, is one wise to the ways of its tormentors. Syrians have the Assads to thank for that. Having endured for four decades the whims of two sordid families, they know what to expect. See through the bully, and you’re on your way to deflating him. Assad dreams of containing the Syrian intifada and imposing a bogus reform project that consolidates his authority; but to many Syrians he is simply irrelevant. Recognition of that fact was implied in the advice of King Abdullah of Jordan that Bashar Assad step down.

“It is difficult to predict what will happen next in Syria. But the Assad order has been stripped down to its carcass, left only with the brutality of Alawite solidarity, fortified by mounting Arab isolation. The ogre is stammering, meaning the end cannot be too far off.”

Pakistan: U.S. missiles reportedly took out 18 Taliban militants at a base on the Afghan border as five drones fired up to 10 rockets. That would have been rather impressive to watch from the security of a hill overlooking the base. Good job, controllers.

Afghanistan: President Hamid Karzai is insisting the U.S. and NATO stop carrying out night raids on Afghan homes before he will sign a strategic partnership agreement, Karzai long arguing night raids pose a disproportionate risk to civilians.

Egypt: The ruling military council now says a presidential election will not occur before 2013. Sec. of State Hillary Clinton responded to this in a speech:

“If, over time, the most powerful political force in Egypt remains a roomful of unelected officials, they will have planted the seeds for future unrest, and Egyptians will have missed a historic opportunity.”

But a month earlier, Clinton approved of an extended timetable for electing a president. What’s up with that, Hillary?

Friday, tens of thousands of Islamists protested in Tahrir Square against the military council’s attempts to carve out special powers (covered here a few weeks ago), even after a new constitution is put in place.

Christians in the Middle East: “A Gathering of Catholic patriarchs in the Middle East urged Christians Thursday to hold onto their lands and holy places despite the ongoing popular uprisings in the Arab world, which have raised fears about the presence of Christians in the region. They also called for a unified Easter holiday to boost Christian unity [Ed: Eastern Orthodox and Western Christian churches using different calendars]….

“Thousands of Christians fled Iraq following the U.S.-led invasion of 2003 fueling worries over the fate of Christians in the region [Ed. a common theme of mine over the years], while recent attacks on Christian Coptic churches in Egypt have only enhanced these fears….

“The patriarchs stressed the need for national dialogue, respect of human rights and national reconciliation.” [Daily Star]
Amen.

China: On Thursday, President Obama vowed to expand U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific region and “project power and deter threats to peace” in that part of the world.

“The United States is a Pacific power, and we are here to stay,” he declared in a speech to the Australian Parliament.

“Let there be no doubt: in the Asia-Pacific in the 21st century, the United States of America is all in,” Obama added. “With most of the world’s nuclear powers and some half of humanity, Asia will largely define whether the century ahead will be marked by conflict or cooperation, needless suffering or human progress.”

As I noted last week, Obama also announced up to 2,500 Marines will eventually be rotating out of northern Australia. It’s a great move. Australia is as good an ally as we have these days and will be increasingly important over the coming decades.
Benny Avni / New York Post

“President Obama is pushing all the right buttons on his Pacific trip – letting friend and foe alike know that ‘the United States is a Pacific power, and we are here to stay.’

“Much follow-through will be needed to fully calm nerves in a region where fears of China are soaring, but this was certainly a good week for America and for everyone in the Asian Pacific realm.

“By announcing that he’ll deploy 2,500 Marines in friendly Australia, the president showed that America intends to ‘project power and deter threats to peace’ in the region.

“Sure, budget-conscious types will kick and scream. But deploying troops in troubled regions is more cost-effective than sending them in after problems arise….

“No one can mistake Obama for a warmonger or for adopting a sledge-hammer mentality in world affairs. Speaking of the planned trade pacts with our allies, he assured everyone that ‘the notion that we exclude China is mistaken’ (although aides insist that, to be included, Beijing must raise the value of its currency and adopt other fair-trade practices – which it won’t).

“China was also careful to avoid inflammatory rhetoric; its foreign ministry cautiously responded that Obama’s promises to deploy American troops in the region ‘may’ not be ‘appropriate.’….

“Yet China and America are shadow-boxing – dancing around the ring while avoiding any trade of serious punches.

“And as long as Obama is going to stay in the ring, as he promised his regional listeners he would, this was a good round. Above all else, he identified the Pacific (and, implicitly, the competition with China) as a national-security imperative.
“But tougher rounds are coming.”

And to that end, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Friday that “outside forces” had no excuse to get involved in a complex dispute over the South China Sea, a veiled warning to Washington.

But, earlier, at the Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) summit on Bali, he offered $10 billion in loans and lines of credit, saying China only wanted to be friends with whom it shares interests in the critical body of water that is potentially rich in energy resources.

[More on this topic in an upcoming “Hot Spots” column.]

On a totally different matter, 18 kindergarten students were killed on their way to class in China’s Gansu province on Wednesday. I saw a picture of the crash, which also killed two adults and ignited public anger across the country, and understand this was a minibus with nine seats, but it was jammed with 62 children when it crashed head-on with a truck on a rural road.

And, lastly, dissident Ai Weiwei paid the government $1.33 million towards his tax bill that Beijing authorities say Ai owes them. Ai said he felt like he had paid a ransom. By paying what he did, though, he gets to challenge the tax bill in court. Gee, I wonder who will win that one?

Burma: President Obama announced on Friday that Sec. of State Clinton would be the first secretary of state in more than 50 years to visit when she travels to Myanmar in December.

“For decades Americans have been deeply concerned about the denial of basic human rights for the Burmese people,” Obama said. “The persecution of democratic reformers, the brutality shown toward ethnic minorities and the concentration of power in the hands of a few military leaders has challenged our conscience and isolated Burma from the United States and much of the world.”

But now there were “flickers of progress” as the president and Parliament in Myanmar have taken steps toward reform; enough so that dissident Aung San Suu Kyi declared that she and her party would rejoin the political system.

Russia: In an annual meeting with reporters, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin showed signs he will be his usual prickly self when he is re-elected president, reiterating his warnings of four years ago that Russia would target U.S. missile defense installations if they were close to its borders. “We have repeatedly said that the establishment of the missile defense shield is a threat to our nuclear potential, and we will be compelled to respond, but no one is listening to us.” Putin added that he didn’t believe U.S. assertions the shield was aimed at ‘rogue’ states such as Iran. Russia’s parliamentary elections are just three weeks away.

On the demographic front the disaster continues, only in this case it’s about the 1.25 million Russians who have left the country in the last 10 years, comparable to the outrush in the wake of the Bolshevik Revolution, a Russian statistician told a Moscow radio station. These days most leave because they are feeling pinched economically; like the Russian nuclear physicist who told the Los Angeles Times’ Sergei L. Loiko that “he couldn’t survive on the $450 monthly salary of a senior researcher at the Institute of Physical Chemistry of the Russian Academy of Sciences.”

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.