USD/TRY: The CBRT's Policy Meeting is very critical for the Turkish Lira before the presidential elections. No change in policy rate is expected. However, the Central Bank should continue to have the tight monetary policy. In particular, the Late Liquidity Window ratio is expected to increase by 25 to 75 basis points from 12,75% in order to avoid serious depreciation in TL in recent months.
If the Late Liquidity Window has an increase of 50 and above, we may see the 4.0383 daily support level in USD/TRY pair. But before the election, in order for the Turkish lira to gain value, it needs to break down and sustain below 4.0382, on a daily basis.
Otherwise, if there is no significant intervention from the Central Bank, we will watch 4.1145 and 4.1743 as resistance levels.
Support: 4.0382 – 3.9619 – 3.9034
Resistance: 4.1145 – 4.1743
Gold: The gold price upward reaction was limited yesterday and the yellow metal pulled back below the 1330 key level again. In the event that the downward movement continues below 1330, we will face support levels at 1319 and 1307. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 1330, the next resistance level can be found at 1352.
Support: 1319 – 1307 - 1291
Resistance: 1330 – 1352 - 1367