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Warning Signal? Small Caps, Retail Stocks Diverge After Hitting March Lows

Published 05/23/2023, 03:15 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Just look at the March lows in Granddad Russell 2000 (IWM).

IWM-Daily Chart

Now look at the March lows in Granny Retail (XRT).

XRT-Daily Chart

So who is right?

IWM has moved up since the March lows and takes the lead as it starts the week.

IWM cleared the 50-DMA in price and is now in the recuperation phase.

Our proprietary indicator lets you see hidden strengths or weaknesses during market trends; right now is as interesting as the diversion in price between Gramps and Granny.

IWM’s momentum indicator cleared the 50 and 200-DMAs changing phase to accumulation.

That is a bullish diversion for IWM as the price is still under the 200-DMA.

Granny XRT, on the other hand, shows momentum declining and below both moving averages.

However, it could be a mean reversion forming. Or at least we hope so.

Granny’s price sits at the March lows and at the 6-month calendar range low.

She must get game, or I would assume, like her grandson Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE), she is flashing a huge warning.

ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (SPY) 23-month MA 420 Support 415
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) 170 support - 180 resistance
  • Dow (DIA) 336, the 23-month MA
  • Nasdaq (QQQ) 336 cleared or the 23-month MA-now it's all about staying above
  • Regional banks (KRE) 42 now pivotal resistance-37 support
  • Semiconductors (SMH) 23-month MA at 124 now more in the rear-view mirror
  • Transportation (IYT) 202-240 biggest range to watch
  • Biotechnology (IBB) 121-135 range to watch from monthly charts
  • Retail (XRT) This could be the new harbinger like KRE was in March. Poor Granny
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