For the second month in a row, the USD/CAD pair has been traded in the range near the balance line and the current level of 1.3585. Obviously, the pair needs a new strong driver for further movement in one direction or another. But, most likely, the results of today's meeting of the Bank of Canada are unlikely to greatly affect the dynamics of the Canadian dollar and the USD/CAD. The rate decision will be published at 14:00 (GMT), and the Bank of Canada press conference will begin at 15:15. Nevertheless, it is necessary to be prepared for the growth of volatility in CAD quotes during this period of time.
Today's meeting can greatly affect the dynamics of CAD. If signals are sent from the Bank of Canada to continue or strengthen economic stimulus, this will put downward pressure on the Canadian dollar. At the same time, CAD is gaining support from rising oil prices and rising global stock indices. If several negative factors come together (the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic and the fall against this background of world prices for commodities, oil and world stock indices, as well as a stimulus program from the Bank of Canada), then a steady and strong fall is waiting for the Canadian dollar and growth - the USD/CAD, respectively.
A breakthrough of resistance levels 1.3628 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3642 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart) can trigger further growth of USD/CAD and return it to a long-term uptrend. Growth into the zone above the local resistance level 1.3720 will confirm this scenario.
At the same time, below resistance level 1.3585 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), preference should be given to short positions.
Support Levels: 1.3585, 1.3522, 1.3450, 1.3357, 1.3250, 1.3090
Resistance Levels: 1.3628, 1.3642, 1.3720
Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.3575. Stop-Loss 1.3615. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3450, 1.3357, 1.3250, 1.3090
Buy Stop 1.3615. Stop-Loss 1.3575. Take-Profit 1.3642, 1.3720, 1.3900, 1.4170, 1.4350, 1.4600