A larger corrective wave from 1.2000 (Jul’11 low) may be unfolding in a multi-month triangle consolidation within a range of 1.3200 and 1.2300. The setback from 1.2970 (June high) could be a wave [D] which could test the 1.2350/1.2300 support. A break above 1.2645 would refocus on the 1.2850/1.2970 resistance in a wave (E). A close below 1.2280 however favours bears and retests the 1.2000 support initially.
USD/SGD is attempting to stabilise from the psychological support at 1.2400. We believe that the pair may attempt for another swing down toward the strong support zone around 1.2345/1.2300 where a medium term bottom is likely to form. Bears need to protect the 1.2525/1.2580 resistance (watch the daily trendline resistance). A reversal above 1.2580/1.2645 confirms the medium term trend reversal.