📖 Your Q2 Earnings Guide: Discover the Stocks ProPicks AI Highlights to Jump Post-EarningsRead more

U.S. Inventory Build Collides With Cheap Russian Crude at the End of the Runway

Published 02/02/2023, 12:06 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
  • The disinflation process has started. 
  • US oil inventory builds collide with cheap Russian oil
  • Hope for a Fed pause is driving sentiment.
  • Markets

    US equities were stronger Wednesday, with S&P 500 lifting out of a negative territory during Chair Powell's presser after The Chair delivered a slightly less hawkish assessment of financial conditions than previously by acknowledging the possibility that the impact of last year's hikes hasn't yet thoroughly worked its way through to the economy and that disinflation process has started. Naturally, those comments opened the door to a panacea of risk-taking in this year's favorite trades, assuming that the Fed is on the cusp of a pause and reassess mode.

    Of course, this is a very nuanced interpretation of Central Bank verbal gymnastics. Still, the more digestible read is the Fed is at the end of the rate hike runway and in the absence of an expected " Assault on Precinct 1( Wall Street.)" or, put another way, a significant pushback on market pricing, it suggests the Fed and The Street seem to be looking through the same disinflation viewfinder. Hence the subsequent few inflation prints will be paramount for assessing the terminal rate. But barring accelerating inflation metrics, a pause after the March meeting is a definite possibility.

    Finally, on the earnings front, some huge stocks -- Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Thermo Fisher Scientific (NYSE:TMO), T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) -- are trading higher today on the back of earnings offset a bit by Amgen Inc (NASDAQ:AMGN), which is pulling back. One theme we are seeing is that companies that suffered a pandemic hangover -- Peloton (NASDAQ:PTON), AMD, Dynatrace Holdings (NYSE:DT) -- are seeing a nice rally on the back of results today.

    Oil Prices

    As we noted yesterday, the FOMC was the least important piece of the oil price puzzle this month. Despite oil price's typical inverse relation with rate hike expectations, Brent Crude was wholly non-reactive to the bounce in cross-asset sentiment following the market's less hawkish assessment of Chair Powell. Instead, the big build in US inventory data hung like an anvil around the market neck.

    However, the weaker US dollar should encourage some dip buying, despite the EIA confirming bulls’ worst supply fears and as cheap Russian oil is getting hovered up on international markets. The rush to fill the storage with relatively cheap Russian Crude before sanctions has eased immediate supply concerns, which has seen cracks soften surprisingly fast in the past week.

    Brokers reported Russian Crude at a two-month low $35/b discount to Brent crude on Wednesday, down nearly $15/b from 23 January. And this is likely encouraging China and Indian refineries to go on a tank-topping splurge as the Russian shadow fleet moves in.

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.