Breaking News
Get Actionable Insights with InvestingPro+: Start 7 Day FREE Trial Register here
Investing Pro 0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

Trump Vs. Biden: Who’s Better For FX?

By Kathy LienForexNov 03, 2020 04:06PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/trump-vs-biden-whos-better-for-fx-200543366
Trump Vs. Biden: Who’s Better For FX?
By Kathy Lien   |  Nov 03, 2020 04:06PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

Election day is finally here and the level of anxiety in America is through the roof. The polls show Joe Biden in the lead but in key battleground states, the spread is less than 1.5 points which means it could swing either way.

The very first polls close at 6pm Eastern Time in parts of Indiana and Kentucky with the very last poll closing at 1am ET in Alaska. In a normal year, by midnight, the election will be called and one of the candidates will concede. However this is far from a normal year because so many Americans voted early and voted by mail which could lead to confusing and mixed initial results. Early returns may look very different from the in person votes and mail in ballots. Our best advice is not to react to the initial outcomes because conflicting results will lead to market volatility.

At the onset, the numbers could look good for Trump as the President is expected to win Kentucky and Indiana easily. The main focus in the early evening will be Florida. If Biden wins Florida, the chance that he will win the election increases exponentially. Stock futures will fall and the dollar will slide. If Trump wins Florida, stocks will soar at the onset because this big win could pave the way for reelection.

There are too many battleground states this time around but the most important will be Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Ohio polls close at 7:30pm. Polls in 4 North Carolina sites are extended so their election results will be delayed by 45 minutes to 8:15pm ET. Polls in Pennsylvania close at 8pm ET but it could take days for mail in ballots to be counted. If Trump wins all of those states, he’ll be the President for the next four years. If he loses them all, he won’t be able to contest his seat and Biden will be declared the winner. But it is unlikely that it will be a broad sweep which means it could be a long drawn out election.

While it is believed that in the short term, a Trump victory will rally stocks and a Biden victory will drive them lower, the impact on the currency market is more nuanced. We know that it will be a long drawn out election night but at the end of the day, some currencies will perform better under another Trump term and others under Biden. More specifically, Biden is expected to be friendlier to Canada and the European Union and more critical of the UK’s decision to leave the EU. If he wins, CAD and EUR could outperform while GBP could weaken. Trump is more supportive of Brexit and more willing to threaten the EU and Canada with tariffs so GBP will probably rally if he wins. USD/JPY should benefit from a Trump victory and fall on a Biden win but that’s assuming a clear winner is declared. If the votes are close and election is contested, the uncertainty could drive all of the risk currencies lower.

Trump Vs. Biden: Who’s Better For FX?
 

Related Articles

Alex Boltyan
EUR/USD Threatens Critical Support By Alex Boltyan - Aug 18, 2022

The EUR/USD pair fell sharply on Thursday amid broad-based dollar strength, which sent the euro to its lowest level in a month during the New York session. At the time of writing,...

Kenny Fisher
Yen Eyes Japanese CPI By Kenny Fisher - Aug 18, 2022

It hasn’t been a good week for the Japanese yen, as USD/JPY has climbed 1.24%. The yen is almost unchanged today, trading at 135.16. Japan wraps up the week with a key...

Al Brooks
EUR/USD: Bears Buying Back Shorts By Al Brooks - Aug 18, 2022

Some of the 'sell-the-close' bears who sold the August 15 close are disappointed and are buying back shorts at their entry price. They sold at the close of August 15, betting on...

Trump Vs. Biden: Who’s Better For FX?

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (26)
Imran Ali
Imran Ali Nov 06, 2020 1:52AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Nice analysis
Janez Rozmarin
Janez Rozmarin Nov 05, 2020 10:46AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
What's then with your commentary few days ago on the reasons EUR will hit 1,15?
Daniel John
Daniel John Nov 04, 2020 4:55AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Kathy, that's a wonderful idea I really believe Biden has less to offer the WTO.
Andrew Philip
Andrew Philip Nov 04, 2020 2:54AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
all media supporting baiden with fakes news telling he about to win nobody really support him Trump winning "by surprise" = protests/investigations
Jack Reacher
Jack Reacher Nov 04, 2020 2:54AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
where you getting your "real news" from ? ROTFL...
Phil Kimmel
Phil Kimmel Nov 03, 2020 11:01PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Either way the markets will go up. Its fundamentals and low interest rates.
Lindokuhle Kgobe
Lindokuhle Kgobe Nov 03, 2020 10:20PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Strong bullish bets for Trump the way I see it a Trump wins means huge gains for The U$D
Stacy Starner
Stacy Starner Nov 03, 2020 9:59PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Bottom line is trumps better for investors
Jack Reacher
Jack Reacher Nov 03, 2020 9:59PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
lol.. he couldn't even beat Obama's first 4 yrs SPX returns.. Not sure where folks like you get your info from
Dimabo Briggs
Dimabo Briggs Nov 03, 2020 9:16PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Many thanks Kathy
KHÁNH ĐÀO
KHÁNH ĐÀO Nov 03, 2020 8:26PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Thank you Kathy !
alewu benjamin
alewu benjamin Nov 03, 2020 7:36PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Trump is racing behind timeBiden all the way
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email