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Trump Versus Clinton - The Economic And Financial Implications

Published 10/07/2016, 06:47 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

We present our take on the economic and financial implications of the US presidential election. If Donald Trump becomes the next US President, it could trigger substantial fiscal easing and would also entail a risk of a global trade war. The independence of the Fed could also be threatened. If Clinton becomes the next US president, it would be more like status quo.

We view a Trump win as medium-term negative for the USD versus G10 currencies and positive versus EM currencies. A Trump win would be negative for global equities and pose upside risks to US yields. We believe a Clinton win would be marginally negative for the USD versus EM currencies and positive for global equities. It would probably have a negligible effect on US yields.

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