- HollyFrontier Corporation (NYSE:HFC)
- L Brands (NYSE:LB)
- Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR)
- Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX)
- Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO)
HollyFrontier broke above an Inverse Head and Shoulders neckline in July. It made it about halfway to the price objective before the broad market sell off pulled it lower. Since finding support it has been building a rising wedge over the neckline. This could be a reversal and continue back towards the price objective near 66. Or as rising wedges often do, break to the downside for another leg lower. The RSI is rising and crossed the mid line with the MACD about to cross up. These support more upside. Watch and react.
L Brands had a strong move higher from October 2014 through to April this year. Then it pulled back over the next 5 months, but at a much slower rate. The decline retraced about 61.8% of the leg higher and then rocketed back up. It spent the last few days in a short term bull flag with major resistance from the prior high overhead. The RSI is firmly in the bullish zone and the MACD rising. Watch for a flag break to participate.
Progressive rolled up out of consolidation in April to a double top peak in August. It fell hard with the market and has been consolidating in an ascending triangle since. With a MACD about to cross up and a rising RSI breaking the mid line it has support for more upside. Look for a break of resistance to participate.
Starbucks had a strong run higher from October 2014 as well, that ended in mid August. The spike down retraced 70% of that move, and it has been consolidating in an ascending triangle since. Friday’s strong candle broke through the top of the triangle. It has support for more upside from a rising RSI that is moving above the mid line and a MACD that just crossed up.
Tractor Supply had a long trend higher from October 2014 interrupted by the August sell off. Since then it has formed a consolidation range, ending last week pressing towards the top. The RSI has been working higher since the drop and is pressing through the mid line. The MACD is crossed up and rising. Both support a push higher.
After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, heading into September Options Expiration sees a series of higher lows on the short term charts showing some promise for equities.
Elsewhere look for Gold to continue lower while Crude Oil consolidates building a bull flag. The US Dollar Index is also consolidating with a short term downward bias while US Treasuries are biased lower. The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets look to continue their consolidation with a bias lower.
Volatility looks to remain elevated but continuing the leak lower, with a possibility of a reversion to normal levels soon. This would lighten the bias lower for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ, and work toward no bias. The ETF’s themselves are showing short term consolidation with reversal signs after a plunge. But the move out of consolidation could be in either direction so a wait and see approach with an upward short term bias is my view.
Longer term a break of consolidation to the upside would be quite bullish. The QQQ remains the strongest of the indexes with the IWM and SPY showing bigger risk to the downside. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.
The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.