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The Week Ahead: Focus Shifts From Earnings To Jobs Report

By Pinchas Cohen/Investing.comMarket OverviewJul 31, 2022 01:09PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/the-week-ahead-focus-shifts-from-earnings-to-jobs-report-200627867
The Week Ahead: Focus Shifts From Earnings To Jobs Report
By Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com   |  Jul 31, 2022 01:09PM ET
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  • Nonfarm payrolls employment data could determine Fed's path to tightening.
  • I am convinced the biggest two-day rally since the 1970s is a bear market rally or a bull trap.
  • Below are my reasons.

Investors may shift their emphasis from earnings to data in the coming week. On Tuesday, I wrote, "With so many potential risks, it is difficult to forecast, but I suspect corporate earnings will have a more lasting effect than the U.S. Fed, as results could help investors decide whether companies can still thrive in the current economic climate or not."

The reason I expect a greater weight of the focus to shift to jobs data is that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell based future hikes on data.

Nonfarm payrolls employment numbers are generally the most impactful data. Still, the following few employment reports could determine the path to higher interest rates after Powell said in Wednesday's press briefing that the central bank's September policy decision would depend on data. And jobs data is critical amid a debate about whether the U.S. economy is in a recession after last week's GDP report revealed the second consecutive quarter of negative growth. The White House insists that we're not in a recession, and the primary data they use to support their argument is a strong labor market. So, you can see how a lot rides on the NFPs.

Truthfully, I didn't expect stocks to rise as they did. As I wrote last Sunday, "So, except for Meta (NASDAQ:META), collective traders appear to say that the stock should keep going lower. Will earnings change that? In my opinion, unless earnings are much better than expected - not only better than low expectations, but if companies can demonstrate that they can grow profits despite spiking inflation and interest rates - Q2 earnings will not mark a bottom for these stocks. There will be short-term volatility before another leg down."

Earnings were not outstanding. Investors were thrilled companies didn't fall off a cliff. I failed to appreciate how easily bulls are lured back in. Still, I did say that I expect markets to be volatile. I also reiterated that there is no bottom yet. How do I know that? We only know there was a bottom after the fact. Therefore, last week's substantial advance is nothing more than a bear rally. The stronger the rally, the harder the fall.

Now, let's pay attention to a critical theme: interest rates. Powell warned the market that the bank would resume the sharpest hikes in a generation and added that the pace of rate increases would slow at some point, and that policy is not predetermined but data dependent. So, what would you take from that? As of now, jumps in rates continue, and somewhere down the line, they will slow down. Duh! Well, what did the market take away? The Fed is slowing its tightening! In my opinion, this is nothing short of scandalous. I don't remember a time when Wall Street ever told investors to stop buying because, let's face it, that's how they make money.

Why I'm Still Convinced Bulls Are About To Get Whipsawed - Hard

  1. We experienced the biggest two-day rally following a Fed hike since the 1970s. Does that sound right after the second jumbo rate hike in a row?
  2. The Nasdaq Composite gained 12.3% in July in one of the best-performing months in the gauge's history. It is unjustified for that to happen simply because earnings weren't bad, especially given the numerous ongoing risks: the highest inflation over four decades, still mired by a supply crisis because of COVID, and the Russian war are triggering the fastest tightening in decades. Also, measuring market health by the previous quarter is like looking in a rear-view mirror. It took time for the Titanic to sink. It didn't happen all in one go. In the last market crash, in 2008, the Fed and the U.S. government had the space for quantitative easing. Moreover, the Fed raises interest rates when the economy grows too fast. Now, it's hiking as the economy is pulling back, and the Fed cannot use QE. So I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see these market levels again for a long time, maybe decades.
  3. Yields have been dropping since mid-June, as investors have piled into safe-haven Treasuries.

10-Year U.S. Treasury Daily Chart
10-Year U.S. Treasury Daily Chart

Source: Investing.com

Ten-Year yields completed a head-and-shoulders top, targeting 1.93%. Yields drop as the difference between the price of the underlying bond and its payout shrinks due to rising demand. That almost always happens when investors lose faith in the economy and equities.

Moreover, when investors are willing to buy Treasuries even as yields are falling, falling yields - when rates are aggressively rising - underscore the level of uncertainty. Finally, the inverted yield is steepening so much that two-year yields are rising, while 10-year yields are falling, as people neglect shorter-dated bonds in favor of a much longer capital commitment.

10-Year Vs. 2-Year U.S. Treasury
10-Year Vs. 2-Year U.S. Treasury

Source: Investing.com

Finally, let's look at the best-performing index, the Nasdaq 100.

It's up 17.62% from its mid-June low, having found support by the 200-week moving average.

Nasdaq 100 Weekly Chart
Nasdaq 100 Weekly Chart

Source: Investing.com

The peaks and troughs are still trending down. If and when the gauge establishes an ascending series of highs and lows, I will repeal my bearish position. If other indices confirm this reversal, I will make a bullish call. For now, however, we are still in both a bear market and a downturn. The price is now facing formidable resistance: the February and March lows, and the May highs. Therefore, I expect the price will not likely repeat the same rally as that of last week.

Disclaimer: I made the same prediction two weeks ago and was wrong. The index additionally has a falling trendline, which is also the top of its falling channel, reinforced by falling 100- and 50-week MAs, in case I'm wrong again this week.

The U.S. dollar fell for the third day and second week.

U.S. Dollar Index Daily Chart
U.S. Dollar Index Daily Chart

Source: Investing.com

The dollar may still be developing a falling flag, and so far, it's supported by the June 15 high. If equities fall, the dollar will likely return to rally.

Gold Futures Daily Chart
Gold Futures Daily Chart

Source: Investing.com

Gold extended the upside breakout of a small H&S bottom for the second week and an overall three-week straight jump. However, gold is still trending within a falling channel, and the 100-day MA is falling toward a bending 200 DMA after the 50 DMA cut through it, demonstrating a general breakdown of pricing.

Bitcoin Weekly Chart
Bitcoin Weekly Chart

Source: Investing.com

Bitcoin rose for the second week, above the 200-week MA, but remained within the short-term rising channel within the long-term falling channel after completing a massive double top. Here is my long-term analysis since January.

Crude Oil WTI Futures Weekly Chart
Crude Oil WTI Futures Weekly Chart

Source: Investing.com

Oil rose for the week but remained below a symmetrical triangle. If the price follows through the top's downtrend, falling through $93, it will have also completed a descending triangle, which is more bearish and has an implied target of $56.

Disclosure: The author currently does not own any of the securities mentioned in this article.

***

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The Week Ahead: Focus Shifts From Earnings To Jobs Report
 

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The Week Ahead: Focus Shifts From Earnings To Jobs Report

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Comments (29)
Ashaq Jani
Ashaq Jani Aug 05, 2022 7:32AM ET
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pinchas Cohen? please help me
Jack Peterson
Jack Peterson Aug 01, 2022 8:00AM ET
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Thank you Pinchas, the excessive exuberance continues…. Central banks have propped up these markets since 2008 and its starting to feel like they do not know what to do next.., they have created a monster.. we are in unchartered and unrealistic territory. My guess is they keep the petal to the metal and let the next guy deal with it. Dangerous distorted reality
Ahmad Bilal Rana
Ahmad Bilal Rana Aug 01, 2022 7:57AM ET
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Good analysis, however it is common to write such stuff in Bear markets. What you failed to mention is that every time SPY went down more than 20%, 100% of the time it recovered even during the worst crisis of 2008 and recession market recovered. I came across some studies which showed 80% of analysts are worng historically in such markets. It's hard to buy your argument that SPY will break 360 from 412 unless Russia attack the rest of the Europe. You are just a Bear!!
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Aug 01, 2022 7:57AM ET
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First, what do you mean I failed to mention? This is a short post, not a doctoral dissertation, with the space to mention everything, if such a thing is even possible. Second, what do you mean that every time SPY went down 20% 100% it recovered even during the worst crisis of 2008? Do you mean in the next bull market, because not every 20% decline was recuperated in the bear market. None of them were. You don't need to buy my argument, because I'm not selling it. This is expository, not persuasive writing.
William Robbins
William Robbins Aug 01, 2022 7:00AM ET
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Thank you for your take on the markets. I benefit a lot from reading your column.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Aug 01, 2022 7:00AM ET
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You're quite welcome, William. Thanks for letting me know.That really makes me happy!
patricio Silva
patricio Silva Aug 01, 2022 6:15AM ET
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Another week of loss poor tu madre
Amie Inconnue
Amie Inconnue Aug 01, 2022 12:41AM ET
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Thank you for sharing your analysis! It takes courage to contradict what the market is doing and what people want to hear.A question: what do you think about DeMark indicators?
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Aug 01, 2022 12:41AM ET
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Thanks, Amie. I don't have experience with it, but I assume that like any other indicator (1) it should be used as one piece of the puzzle, (2) that its effectiveness will change based on the changing conditions of the market.
Amie Inconnue
Amie Inconnue Aug 01, 2022 12:41AM ET
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Thank you for the reply! By the way, VIX seems to agree with your analysis today.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Aug 01, 2022 12:41AM ET
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Amie Inconnue  You're welcome, and yeah, but it's too early to tell, VIX-wise.
Kris Jay
Kris Jay Jul 31, 2022 9:36PM ET
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Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley offers similar guidance.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jul 31, 2022 9:36PM ET
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So, I'm in good company.
Kris Jay
Kris Jay Jul 31, 2022 9:34PM ET
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reminds me of the scene in "My cousin Vinny".   “That is a lucid, well thought-out, intelligent objection. Motion denied” – Judge Chamberlain Haller You are correct, nothing to cheer about, but market is made up of people making buy decisions.  so as the saying goes, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".   I think any earnings from Q2 are past performance and the real measure will be Q3 earnings.    But will be a lot of pain for shorts , including myself, between now and then.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jul 31, 2022 9:34PM ET
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1. You're absolutely right. 2. It's my job to try and recognize when supply and demand shift, and that is what I'm attempting to do, and I provided my reasons, based on various measures of supply and demand.
G D
G D Jul 31, 2022 9:34PM ET
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I'm hedging my Shorts with a Long position and if prices go up I take profit off the Long to add that to my Shorts. Win win
Tom Brady
Tom Brady Jul 31, 2022 7:41PM ET
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You also said goog was going to $95.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jul 31, 2022 7:41PM ET
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Yes, and your point is...?
Brad Albright
Brad Albright Jul 31, 2022 6:35PM ET
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A lot to chew on there, Pincas. Thanks. Question: Your disclaimer that you do not own any if the securities mentioned in the article, does that include the indexes? Just curious if you take positions in the indexes.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jul 31, 2022 6:35PM ET
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I could.
Brad Albright
Brad Albright Jul 31, 2022 6:35PM ET
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Pinchas Cohen Do me a favor. Imagine that you were the one who asked the question I did. Now, ask yourself, man to man, is the answer you gave forthright and respectful?
 
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