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The Energy Report: Bad Day for the Energy Transition

Published 06/20/2024, 09:32 AM

Billions and billions of dollars spent! Higher prices for energy and global instability all in the name of saving the planet from climate change. Yet I hate to tell them, their plans are not working. Today, Reuters reports that, “Global fossil fuel consumption and energy emissions hit all-time highs in 2023, even as fossil fuels’ share of the global energy mix decreased slightly on the year, the industry’s Statistical Review of World Energy report said on Thursday.” The report seems to spread panic and doom by writing, “Growing demand for fossil fuel despite the scaling up of renewables could be a sticking point for the transition to lower carbon energy as global temperature increases reach 1.5C (2.7F), the threshold beyond which scientists say impacts such as temperature rise, drought and flooding will become more extreme.”

The climate change folks will also seize on the recent heat wave as more evidence that the planet is in peril. They will tell you that the only way to save the earth from doom and destruction is to sacrifice your economic futures and freedoms to save the planet. While there is debate about the dangers of climate change, the one thing that is easy to document is all the inaccurate warnings of total doom due to climate change that have failed to come true. They need you to live in a ‘State of Fear’ coined by the late Michael Crichton, the title of his anti-climate change novel that correctly predicted that big money interests and politicians had to keep you in a state of fear about the planet so they can take away your freedoms and you standard of living and ultimately control you.

Oil today is also awakening to the fact that maybe the demand for oil is not that bad after all. After selling off because of the fear that OPEC might taper production cuts or that the Fed might cause a recession is being replaced with signs that the global market is tightening based on market structures as well.

Oil is supported by a Reuters report that the Nigerian energy firm Aiteo has shut down all oil production at its Nembe Creek facility, nearly 50,000 barrels per day of output, after detecting a leak, the company said on Wednesday.

Geopolitical risk factors are also supporting oil as there is growing frustration with the inability to stop attacks by the Houthi Rebels in the Red Sea. The AP reported that “A bulk carrier sank days after an attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who are believed to have killed one mariner on board, authorities said early Wednesday. It was the second ship sunk in the rebels’ campaign targeting Red Sea shipping. The sinking of the Tutor marks what appears to be a new escalation by the Iranian-backed Houthis in their campaign of attacks on ships in the vital maritime corridor over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. The attack comes despite a months-long U.S.-led campaign in the region that has seen the Navy face its most intense maritime fighting since World War II, with near-daily attacks targeting commercial vessels and warships.

The AP also reported that “Russia resumed its aerial pounding of Ukraine’s power grid and Kyiv’s forces again targeted Russian oil facilities with cross-border drone strikes, officials said Thursday. With no major changes reported along the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line, where a recent push by the Kremlin’s forces in eastern and northeastern Ukraine has made only incremental gains, both sides in the war have taken aim at distant infrastructure targets.

So much for your gasoline price break. RBOB gasoline futures hit the highest level since May rising over 15 a gallon from its may low price and is hitting key resistance and if it breaks higher, it will mean that prices at your local station will again start to rise.

Unconfirmed reports of early maintenance the Whiting Indiana BP (NYSE:BP) refinery and tightening supplies and certain local markets is starting to drive the area futures higher it’s also possible that its gasoline prices fall and demand goes up so we’re getting mixed signals on the demand side of the equation.

Quantum (NASDAQ:QMCO) Commodity Intelligence – reported that ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) has been forced to shut different units at its Baytown and Beaumont refineries in Texas amid reports of flaring and related issues. They also reported that Shell (LON:SHEL) has been forced to close a diesel-making hydrocracker at its troubled 400,000 bpd Pernis refinery in Rotterdam.

Because of the Juneteenth holiday today we get the Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly petroleum status report at 10:00 yet those in the natural gas world have to wait until tomorrow to get their report to find out how the hot weather impacted global inventory as well as production.

Before the June 10th holiday we did get the American Petroleum Institute (API) report that didn’t seem to really have a big impact on the oil and petroleum market. The API reported that crude oil inventories rose by 2.264 million barrels but at the same time gasoline inventories fell by 1.077 million barrels. Distilling inventories did increase by 538,000 barrels.

Most people admit that last week’s Energy Information Administration weekly status report was wild. Huge adjustments and uptick in U.S. oil production and a huge surge in U.S. oil imports had many people questioning the data. Most people expect some huge adjustments in this week’s number or at the very least at the end of the month. Yet the weekly data is becoming more erratic once again and that’s making it more difficult to get an overall handle on the true supply and demand situation. Currently our expectations continue to be that the Energy Information Administration will have to upwardly revise oil demand numbers and dramatically increase the amount of U.S. oil and product exports.

Will this heat wave stay around and what is going to be the impact on US storage numbers? We do know that the tropics continue to have to be watched and that’s the reason you need to download the Fox Weather app.

Tropical storm Alberto became the first named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season Wednesday, and as the system churned over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, it blasted parts of Texas, Louisiana and Mexico with heavy rainfall, storm surge flooding and gusty winds.

At last report from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Alberto was a minimal tropical storm with winds mainly around 50 mph. However, its influence stretched hundreds of miles. Despite the center of circulation being more than 200 miles south of the Rio Grande, widespread coastal flooding was reported along barrier islands and coastal communities from Brownsville, Texas, to Grand Isle, Louisiana. The FOX Forecast Center said due to the system’s lack of organization and a steep pressure gradient, coastal flooding was more significant than what is normally experienced during a low-end tropical storm.

Seas as high as 16 feet were reported in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon, which helped cause water level rises of 3-5 feet along the Texas coastline. Major flooding was reported in Surfside Beach and the San Louis Pass region, which are south of Galveston. Photos and video from coastal communities showed streets that were inundated by seawater, especially during high tide.

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