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Technical News 16 Nov 2011

Published 11/16/2011, 04:27 AM
Updated 02/20/2017, 07:55 AM
EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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USD/JPY
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USD/CHF
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CL
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CHF/MAD
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Technical News

EUR/USD

The resilience of the EUR has led many traders to adopt the strategy of selling the EUR/USD on rallies. The key resistance level is 1.3860 from the early November consolidation pattern. This is also the 50% retracement from the late October to early November downtrend (1.4246-1.3483). Approaches to this key level and the pair may run into selling pressure. Both monthly and weekly stochastics continue to move lower and initial support may be found at 1.3650, followed by last week's low of 1.3480. A break here could open the door to 1.3145 from the October low. Additional resistance is located at the 200-day moving average at 1.4105.

GBP/USD

Sterling has been met with selling pressure on approaches to its 200-day moving average which comes in at 1.6140. This moving average comes in just above a bull flag pattern located on the daily chart. The support line of the chart pattern falls from the October 26th low and has a potential measured move of 480 pips which makes the August high at 1.6615 a convenient target. Should the pair fail to break out of the consolidation pattern, support may be located at 1.5850 as well as 1.5680.

USD/JPY

Yen strength has reemerged after a period of little movement. The USD/JPY may find support at its 55-day moving average at 76.95 though the one way movement in the price action hints at additional declines in the pair. Additional support may be located at 76.10 from the bottom of the September consolidation with a final destination at least the all-time low at 75.63. Resistance may be found off of the September high of 77.85 while the long term downtrend from the 2007 high is located at 79.30.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF made a breach but failed to make a significant move above the 0.9080 resistance from the October 20th high. An additional push higher will likely target the October high of 0.9310. Traders should also have their eye on the 20-month moving average which comes in at 0.9450. Initial support is located near 0.8950 followed by the November low of 0.8760.

The Wild Card

Crude Oil

Spot crude oil prices have risen almost 33% from their October lows, stopping just shy of the key psychological level at $100. Forex traders should note this price has additional significance as it is near the 61% Fibonacci retracement ($99.50) from the move lower stemming from the May high to the October low. Resistance is found at $103.40 and $104.50 from the mid-May consolidation. Support is back at $94.50 from the October high.

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