Breaking News
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your experience. Save up to 40% More details

Flooding In Argentina May Delay Soy Crop Harvesting

By IFC Markets (Ara Zohrabian)ForexApr 12, 2017 07:13AM ET
Flooding In Argentina May Delay Soy Crop Harvesting
By IFC Markets (Ara Zohrabian)   |  Apr 12, 2017 07:13AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items

Storms, floods, and rains in the western part of Argentina may delay harvesting of soy crops in 2016/17 agricultural season. Will the prices of soybean meal rise?

Argentina is the 3rd largest soybean producer in the world. According to forecasts, its soy crop should be 56.5 mln tonnes. Currently, only 5.9% of planted area is harvested. Previously, soy prices have been declining for 5 straight weeks, for the first time in the last 30 months. Another factor which may support prices is the upward revision of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture forecasts. The soybean imports to China may increase to 86.55 mln tonnes in 2016/17 season from the previously expected 85.31 mln tonnes.

The soybean consumption may rise to 100.81 mln tonnes from 99.87 mln tonnes. Note, that on Tuesday, at 19-00 CET the review on grain crop and stocks will be released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). It may markedly impact the prices. The preliminary forecasts were rather optimistic, if they are revised down, it may disappoint market participants.

Soybean Daily Chart
Soybean Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, SOYBM: D1 is in the downtrend. The upward reversal of prices is possible in case of deterioration of weather conditions in Argentina and decrease of the USDA forecasts.

  • The Parabolic indicator gives bullish signals.
  • The Bollinger bands® have widened, which means higher volatility.
  • The RSI is in the oversold zone. It has formed a positive divergence.
  • The MACD gives bullish signals.

The bullish momentum may develop in case SOYBM exceeds the last fractal high and the resistance line of the downtrend at 315. This level may serve as the entry point. The initial stop-loss may be placed below the Parabolic signal, the Bollinger bands and the annual low at 295. After opening the pending order, we shall move the stop to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals.

Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop-loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level at 295 without reaching the order at 315 we recommend cancelling the position: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Summary of technical analysis:

Position: Buy
Buy stop: 315
Stop loss: 295

Flooding In Argentina May Delay Soy Crop Harvesting

Related Articles

Al Brooks
EUR/USD: A Higher Low More Likely By Al Brooks - Sep 17, 2021 1

– Yesterday was a big bear day for EUR/USD, closing in its bottom third, but just 3 pips below the Sept. 13 bull flag attempt. – This is disappointing for the bears. – Bears want...

Flooding In Argentina May Delay Soy Crop Harvesting

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Post also to:
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fulfilling trading operations under conditions of significant leverage, or relatively little changes of the rate of financial tool (currency pair, index, etc.) can cause significant changes to the customer trading account (proportionally to this leverage) . At movement of the market against the customer position he can incur significant loss of part or the whole deposit. The customer is fully responsible for using his financial resources and choosing the trading strategy. Many financial tools have high volatility and/or have significant intraday time ranges of price changes that define high probability of reception of both fast profits and losses from trading operations.
Continue with Google
Sign up with Email