This has got to be the only morning in history where I’m disappointed to see the S&P 500 Futures down 80 points. I mean, don’t get me wrong; 27 out of 28 positions are bearish. But still, what would have made this easiest would have been a strong bounce up to 4460 and then I would Get The Hell Out of my one long position and enjoy the ride down. As it is now, I actually have to think. The hearty bounce below is already half gone, and there’s still an hour to go even before the opening bell as I’m typing this.
Over the past couple of weeks, the /ES has been stumbling its way down the stairs, with each counter-trend bounce weaker than the one before. I think the blinkered public is finally started to realize they’ve been duped. I mean, it’s kind of like the Peloton (NASDAQ:PTON) CEO being threatened with expulsion. He already sold his $200 million in stock. Do you really think he cares that much if he’s going to lose his day job? He’s already fleeced the public, so what’s the point of pretending anymore?
As for the ES, the big pattern in play is below. The fall since early this month has been glorious, but frankly I’d feel a lot better about the whole situation if the bulls would just get the big bounce completely out of the way. I find it hard to believe that the three hour rally we had yesterday was the entirety of the proverbial Wave Four.
For me, my obsession remains the small caps, by way of the Russell 2000 Futures show below. The portion I’ve highlighted is, I believe, the pattern that is going to define the year 2022. We had our one-year range; we got our break; and we were starting to get our counter-trend bounce. The biggest question looming before us is: will the man who created this bubble in the first place, Jerome Powell, be the cause of the final bounce tomorrow?
