This is one of Goldman’s ’high-conviction’ FX calls for 2026
Silver futures (December contract) are trading around $51.215, down 3.9% on the session, as the market enters a short-term corrective phase within the context of a powerful longer-term bull trend. After reaching a recent high of $53.765, prices have retraced sharply toward the daily and weekly VC PMI support zones, where new buying opportunities are likely to emerge.
From a mean reversion perspective, the Daily VC PMI at $52.71 defines the equilibrium point for short-term price behavior. The upper extreme zones (Sell 1 at $54.21 and Sell 2 at $55.12) marked the recent resistance that triggered the current correction. Meanwhile, the lower extremes (Buy 1 at $51.79 and Buy 2 at $50.29) establish the probable area where the market can revert upward toward its mean. This range aligns precisely with the Fibonacci retracement cluster between 38.2% ($50.26) and 50% ($49.56), reinforcing the probability of a technical bottom forming between $50.30 and $49.00.
On a weekly basis, the VC PMI pivot at $47.97 and Buy 1 at $45.98 provide structural support within the 30–360 day Gann cycle window. The 30-day cycle projects a low window between October 20 and 22, indicating that the current price weakness is entering the time frame where buying pressure historically reemerges. The 360-day cycle, still in a dominant bullish phase, suggests that this pullback is corrective and could precede a resumption toward higher targets between $58 and $60 by late 2025.
The MACD momentum oscillator confirms this analysis: although the histogram is fading, it remains above zero, signaling a decelerating downtrend rather than a full reversal. Rising volume on the downside also hints at capitulation, often a precursor to renewed accumulation. From the Square-of-9 geometric perspective, the $50.00–$49.50 levels correspond to harmonic price vibration support nodes, further reinforcing the probability of reversal from this region.
In summary, silver is completing a mean-reversion cycle that coincides with time and price symmetry. Traders should monitor the $50.30–$49.00 zone for reversal confirmation, ideally supported by a positive MACD crossover or bullish candlestick formation. A sustained close above $52.52 would confirm the next leg toward $53.75–$54.20 and potentially initiate the cycle advance into the $56–$60 range. Until then, the short-term corrective wave provides a strategic accumulation window for disciplined mean-reversion traders.
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TRADING DERIVATIVES, FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND PRECIOUS METALS INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.