US begins review of Nvidia AI chip sales to China, Reuters reports; shares rise
In the global markets continues a massive attack on the US dollar, which gives in currency pairs one position after another. However, technical signals indicate an increasing probability of strong corrective movement. Almost all pairs with the presence of the dollar continue to generate signals for the change in the dynamics of quotations. This situation can be explained only by the artificial warming up of markets prior the Fed meeting next week.
Today’s day is saturated with macroeconomic statistics. Special attention of the participants will be paid to the following indicators:
- 02: 30 Moscow time, The block of data about the consumer inflation in Japan. The actual performance was better than expected, which is another indication of the gradual recovery of the Japanese economy. Continuing the publication of strong statistics will sooner or later turn from a quantitative factor into a qualitative one, which will lead to the strengthening of the yen in world markets. The current situation is considered as a period of critical mass accumulation.
- from 10:15 to 11:00 Moscow time, business activity indices (PMI) are published in the manufacturing and service sectors for France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. In the case of weak statistics of these indicators, the market will be able to observe the beginning of the long-awaited corrective price movement.
- 15:30 Moscow time, a large block of data on consumer inflation in August and the July volume of retail sales in Canada. The publication of these macroeconomic indicators can lead to strong price movements. The USD / CAD pair is expected to rebound from the support at 1.2900 and the quotations return to the area above 1.3000.
- the day ends with the publication at 16:45 Moscow time of business activity indicators (PMI) in the US. Markets expect a strong statistic that if the actual values coincide with the predictions, it will be another factor for strengthening the US dollar.
Thus, today is foreseen the correction movement of the markets. We remember about the upcoming meeting of the American regulator, pay attention to the excess of the yield of 10-year US government bonds of 3.0% per annum, and we continue to monitor the technical picture of the trades indicating the strengthening of the dollar.
In the middle of trading on Thursday, amid strong statistics on retail sales in the UK, the pair EUR / USD finally managed to overcome the resistance around 1.1700-1.1710 and rushed to the level of 1.1800. However, attracts attention the technical picture of the pair, which indicates the continuation of the formation of significant correction’ signals. Despite the update of the maximum prices since July this year, the corresponding values of the MACD indicator did not reach their previous highs. The formation of a divergence allows us to make an assumption about the high probability of a corrective price movement down. Trigger hook for the implementation of this scenario may become a weak statistics on the PMI indices of the Euro zone, published in the middle of the day. At the same time, the reduction goals are indicated in yesterday's overview.
The support zone today is located in the range of 1.1710-1.1720.
Resistance is present in the area of 1.1780-1.1800.
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair almost reached an important level of 1.3300, updating the maximum prices since mid-July this year. The positive dynamics of quotations was the result of strong statistics on retail sales in the UK. In addition, the strengthening of the British pound contributed to the continued weakening of the dollar in world markets.
However, the daily update of the maximum prices is accompanied by the formation of technical analysis signals indicating an increasing probability of significant corrective movement. The chart GBP/USD H4 yellow marker shows the local highs and the corresponding values of the indicators RSI and MACD. The technical picture of trades shows an artificial warming up of quotations before the substantial strengthening of the US dollar. The implementation of such a scenario may begin today on the background of profit-taking by players after the rally this week.
The support zone is in the area of 1.3150-1.3170 (green oval).
The resistance zone is present in the range 1.3285-1.3300 (red oval).
USD/JPY
Today morning the quotations of the pair USD/JPY almost reached the level of 113.0. The weakening of the Japanese yen against the US currency can be explained by the approaching meeting of the Fed next week, following which the interest rate will be increased by 0.25%, which increases the attractiveness of the curry-trade operations with these currencies. Thus, the players win back this event in advance. After the middle of next week in the markets it will be possible to observe correctional movement. This is facilitated by the strong macroeconomic statistics on the Japanese economy published in recent weeks.
Another manifestation of this was today’s night data on consumer inflation for August, which demonstrated the gradual unfolding of inflationary processes.
Today, the lateral dynamics of quotations is projected.
The support zone is in the area of 112.30-112.45 (green oval).
The resistance zone is located in the area of 112.85-113.05 (red oval).
The general tendency of the weakening of the US dollar in world markets was reflected by the decrease in the quotes of the pair USD / CHF. Prices for the morning of today broke through the support near the mark of 0.9600 and are in the area of 0.9580-0.9590. Yesterday's predictions of the probability for the corrective movement in the area located in the range of 0.9690-0.9700, was not realized, but remains in force. Since the update of the minimum prices in the period from the first half of April this year is accompanied by the formation of technical analysis signals that indicating a correction. Local minima, marked on August 30, September 14 and September 20-21, did not result in updating the corresponding minimum values of the MACD indicator. We are waiting for correction. Today's decline in quotations seems artificial.
The support zone is in the area of 0.9590-0.9605 (green oval on the chart).
The resistance is located in the range of 0.9655-0.9665 (red oval).
