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Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project: 1st Estimate For The Friday Update

ByDoug Short
Published 10/02/2012, 01:35 AM

Each Friday I post an update on the public release of data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Dwaine van Vuuren, CEO of RecessionAlert.com, and his collaborators, including Georg Vrba and Franz Lischka, have developed a powerful recession forecasting methodology that shows promise of making forecasts with fewer false positives, which I take to include excessively long lead times, such as ECRI's September 2011 recession call.

Here is Dwaine's 1st estimate and alert level posted in advance of Friday's ECRI weekly update.

Monday 1st October 2012, 1st estimate: The official ECRI figures for Friday 5th October are expected to be higher than last week at 127 (126.7) with a growth metric of +4.96 (+3.84). This marks a new 60 week high for the WLI level and a 69 week high for the WLI growth. The lower estimate for ECRI's posting on Friday this week is WLI= 126.7/WLIg= +4.66 and the upper estimate is WLI= 127.21/WLIg= +5.26. Recession probability within 4-6 weeks is 0.8% (1.22%).

Here is the latest snapshot.
SWLI_latest
For an expanded analysis, including chart snapshots of Shadow Alert accuracy and a detailed discussion, visit Dwaine's Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project on his website.

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