For those that follow my analysis through the years, you would remember that I turned strongly bullish as the S&P 500 approached the 2200SPX region in March of 2020.
But, if you also remember that time period, the level of fear in the market even exceeded that seen at the March 2009 lows. So, when I suggested that the market would see a rally from 2200 to at least 4000, with an ideal target in the 6000 region, many simply could not believe what I was saying, as you can see here.
As you can see, most folks thought my view was “unmeaningful,” “absurd,” “insane,” or based upon “chart magic,” while I ignored the “common sense view.” However, my expectation was based upon our Fibonacci Pinball methodology of applying Elliott Wave analysis.
If you would like to learn more about our methodology, which has called major turns in the equity market, gold, silver, the US Dollar, oil, bonds, etc, feel free to read this six-part EW intro series I wrote, which explains my methodology.
Now, even though we saw a rally from 2200 to 3750SPX in 2020, I still noted at the end of 2020 that I was expecting another 20%+ rally in the S&P 500 in 2021. In fact, I outlined my expectation that I expected a rally to 4440-4600SPX, to be followed by a pullback to 4270SPX, to be followed by another strong rally to an ideal target of the 4900SPX region.
As we know, the market rallied to 4550, pulled back to 4270, and then rallied to a high of 4744. So, clearly, 2021 has not been perfectly aligned with my ideal expectations to date, as we have thus far come up a bit short of my ideal 4900SPX region target. But, again, as we came into 2021, I did say that I expected a 20%+ rally, with a minimum target of 4600SPX. And, we certainly met my expectations a year ago.
Since the market came up short of my ideal 4900SPX region target so far, I am still uncertain as to whether we will try to stretch one more time to get there in the coming weeks/months. And, the question will be answered based upon the nature of the next “bounce” in the market.
You see, if the market has indeed topped near-term, then the next rally will only be corrective in nature. And, should that be the case, then I have to accept a shortened top to the 2021 rally, and accept the 4744 top as the high for wave [3] of [iii] off the March 2020 low, in Elliott Wave parlance. This would cause me to modify my expectation for a wave [4] pullback, as it would lower my ideal target for that pullback to the 4300-4350 region.
However, if the next rally is clearly impulsive, then I will cautiously be looking towards the 4880SPX region before the wave [4] pullback that I initially expected to take us back to the 4440SPX region.
What this means is that the next few weeks will tell me just how deep the wave [4] pullback will take us. But, more importantly, it will also tell me if we begin the next major rally I expect in 2022 sooner rather than later. But, under both circumstances, I am expecting yet another banner year in the S&P 500 in 2022, as I am now expecting a 15-20% rally from the low of wave [4].
So, in recapping, back in 2020, I expected a strong rally off the 2200SPX lows to new all-time highs. And, the market rallied in 2020 from 2200 to 3750SPX. As we went into 2021, I expected a continuation rally from 3750 of at least 20%, with a minimum target of 4600SPX. And, now, as we look towards 2022, I am expecting another 15-20% rally after we complete the 4th wave pullback.
Thereafter, the market will become much more complicated and treacherous.