S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 0.07% for the Day But Up 0.73% Since the Shutdown

Published 10/03/2013, 03:29 AM

Before the US markets opened yesterday on day two of the shutdown, the Nikkei closed its Wednesday session with a 2.17% loss and the EURO STOXX 50 was down about half a percent and would eventually close at precisely -0.50%. The S&P 500 fell at the opening bell and hit its -0.86% intraday low shortly after 10 AM. It then recovered to the fractional red zone by lunch time and trimmed its losses further in the final five minutes to close with a small loss of 0.07% for the day. So far US markets aren't showing much reaction to the shutdown.

Here is 15-minute chart of the past five sessions. After the opening selloff on Monday, the S&P 500 has recovered enough to be up a modest 0.13% for the week and a counterintuitive 0.73% since the shutdown took effect at midnight on Monday.
SPX 15 Minute Chart
Here is an hourly chart since before the Fed-driven "no-taper" rally, which more clearly shows the recent trend and the minimal effect (again "so far") of the shutdown./p>
SPX Hourly Chart
Here is the equivalent snapshot of the 10-year Treasury yield index. We can see that the rally in Treasuries and fall in yield since the "no-taper" news has turned into a relatively narrow intraday range. The offical 10-year closing yield has hovered in a 3 bp range (2.63% to 2.66%) since September 25th. Yesterday's close was at 2.63%.
TNX
Volume for shutdown rally was on spot on its 50-day moving average. On a daily chart we can also see that yesterday the index bounced off its 50-day price moving average.
SPX  Daily Chart
The S&P 500 is now up 18.77% for 2013 and 1.83% below the all-time closing high of August 18.
SPX Index
SPX MA Snapshot
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here's a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

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