Puma Biotech (PBYI) To Report Q1 Earnings: What To Expect?

Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (NASDAQ:PBYI) is scheduled to report first-quarter results on May 9 after market close.

The company’s earnings track record has been impressive so far with an average positive surprise of 44.27% in the last four quarters.

Puma’s shares have underperformed the industry this year so far. While the industry has declined 12.2%, Puma’s shares have gone down by 35.4%.

Last quarter, Puma delivered a positive surprise of 47.98%. Let’s see, how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

Puma Biotechnology’s only marketed product, Nerlynx (neratinib), was launched in the United States for extended adjuvant treatment of HER2-positive early stage breast cancer in August 2017. The drug generated sales of $26.2 million in 2017. Investors will be keen to know if sales of Nerlynx picked up in the first quarter.

The drug is also under review in the EU for the same indication. However, in February, the company announced that the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use adopted a negative opinion, recommending the refusal of the Marketing Authorization Application for Nerlynx in the EU. Puma plans to submit a request for re-examining the opinion by the regulatory agency soon. An update is expected on the Q1 conference call.

Several additional studies on neratinib targeting different types of breast cancer patient populations and in earlier-line settings are underway. Also, several phase II combination trials evaluating Nerlynx for the treatment of breast cancer are on.

Apart from the HER2-positive breast cancer indication, the company believes that neratinib holds potential for treating several other cancers including NSCLC and other tumor types that over-express or have a mutation in HER2.

We expect an update on some of these studies on the first-quarter conference call.

What Our Model Indicates

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Puma is likely to beat estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a bullish Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. But that is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Puma has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of 75 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Puma has a Zacks Rank #2, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, a company’s 0.00% Earnings ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some health care stocks with the right combination of elements to beat estimates this time around:

Epizyme, Inc. (NASDAQ:EPZM) has an Earnings ESP of +0.18% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 8.

Adverum Biotechnologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADVM) has an Earnings ESP of +6.9% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release first-quarter results on May 8.

Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:KERX) has an Earnings ESP of +11.69% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release first-quarter results this month.

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