Progressive (PGR) To Report Q2 Earnings: Is Stock At Risk?

Property and casualty insurer Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2016 results before the opening bell on Jul 14. Last quarter, this insurer delivered a 16% negative earnings surprise. Will Progressive pull off a positive earnings surprise this quarter?

Factors Influencing This Past Quarter

Progressive is likely to have witnessed improved policies in force that should lead to better premium and higher revenues in the second quarter. Competitive pricing and a diversified product portfolio should result in a solid retention ratio.

However, expenses may increase as both April and May results revealed higher expenses due to increased policy acquisition costs, other underwriting expenses, and losses and loss-adjustment expenses. Combined ratio too is likely have deteriorated in the to-be-reported quarter.

Nonetheless, regular buyback should boost the bottom line.

With respect to the surprise trend, Progressive surpassed expectations in two of the last four quarters. The average negative surprise was 0.36%.

The company’s share price has been fluctuating over the last few days. We wait to see how the stock reacts to the quarter’s results.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Progressive will likely beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the second quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or at least 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. But this is not the case here as elaborated below.

Zacks ESP: Progressive has 0.00% Earnings ESP. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at 33 cents per share.

Zacks Rank: Progressive has a Zacks Rank #3. Though this increases the predictive power of the ESP, the company's 0.00% ESP makes our surprise prediction difficult.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies you may want to consider as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

AXIS Capital Holdings Limited (NYSE:AXS) has an Earnings ESP of +7.45% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter earnings results on Jul 26.

The Allstate Corp. (NYSE:ALL) has an Earnings ESP of +5.56% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter earnings results on Aug 3.

Argo group International Holdings, Ltd. (NASDAQ:AGII) , Earnings ESP of +3.19 % and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings results on Aug 2.