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Market Ignores Trump
www.investing.com/analysis/pre-ny-open-market-ignores-trump-but-it-is-not-a-giant-bouncy-beach-ball-rallyeurgoldbonds-200543941
Market Ignores Trump
By Stephen Innes | Nov 09, 2020 04:51AM ET I think "hold the joy " is setting in as markets have Georgia on their minds.
Markets have taken the view that there is very little US President Trump can do to overturn the US election result. Equity markets continued their recent push higher as a risk-on tone emerged overnight. The rally was broad-based and added to the strong run seen this month.
Markets have taken the view that there is very little US President Trump can do to overturn the US election result. Equity markets continued their recent push higher as a risk-on tone emerged overnight. The rally was broad-based and added to the strong run seen this month.
Italy stands out as the best performing MTD, up 9.69% compared to the NASDAQ, up 9.01%. There have also been strong performances in Asia, with the Nikkei now up 8.11% month to date.
The risk-on move in equities hasn’t actually had much impact on fixed income, with Bunds and USTs rallying overnight. The default position has been to sell strength for a while, so it will be interesting to see just how long this bounce can last.
Events in Georgia (where control of the Senate will be determined in January) also have consequences for the Democrats' ability to push through their agenda. Ultimately, until then, it is hard to see how rates back up meaningfully, and the range trade probably beckons for the remainder of the year.
Chinese Media Largely Positive On Biden Win
Overall, onshore media in China have struck a pretty optimistic tone since it became clear Joe Biden had won the US election. US-China ties are expected to improve under a Biden administration, with future trade policy seen as more predictable.
Foreign Exchange
The networks have called Biden. Trump is still fighting it legally. The market reaction since the open is very calm as it looked that way towards the end of last week already. EUR/USD has come a long way since election night, obviously with the move coming out of the USD leg. The question is, is the EURO really the best play with the public health situation and lockdowns across the continent? I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some profit-taking around this 1.19 level and enter a consolidation phase.
Buy Gold On Dips
Gold continues to benefit from the US election out of the way. Watch for any talk on US fiscal stimulus over the next few weeks as a trigger for an additional move higher. Expect some resistance around $2000 and $2065, but apart from that, there a a huge percivied value in buying gold on dips down to $1920.
Russia Energy Minister To Be Made Deputy PM
Russian PM Mishustin will promote Energy Minister Novak to Deputy PM in a cabinet reshuffle. This was reported by the local press earlier, so it shouldn't come as a surprise. The only relevance for markets is policy continuity on OPEC+ negotiations.
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Market Ignores Trump
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