The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium continues for a second day, and all investors turn their attention to the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech. Investors are hoping that the head of the world’s most influential Central Bank will indicate regarding US monetary policy and how he sees the economy developing over the next six months.
Economists seem to have different views on the speech. Some believe that Mr. Powell will give a slightly less hawkish view, while others believe that the Fed will proceed with a 75 basis point hike. According to Bloomberg, polls show that 50% of the market believes the Fed will hike 50 instead of 75 basis points. Macro Strategist, Mark Cudmore, believes that the Fed will not give any indication.
Even with no indication from Jerome Powell, the symposium will have provided the market with some clarifications. Yesterday, a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member, Esther George, gave interviews at the symposium in Jackson Hole. A reporter asked Mrs. George if she would continue hiking interest rates during a recession and with unemployment rising. She replied,
“If inflation remains high, we are mandated to, yes.”
XAU/USD Outlook
XAU/USD appears to have lost momentum after retracing upwards to $1,765. The bullish price swing measures 51% compared to the bearish movement we saw last week. The price movement is under 75%, which is considered a retracement.
Currently, the price is hovering just under the two and 3-month average price movement. Traders are waiting for further price drivers and whether the price will fully correct upwards or continue a downward trend. Of course, this will depend on the US Dollar.
Weekly data from the US employment sector encouraged investors as the figure was lower than expected. The number of jobless claims was 243,000, significantly less than the expected 353,000 and the previous figure of 245,000. The total number of citizens receiving benefits decreased from 1,434 to 1,415 million.
GBP/USD Outlook
The price of the GBP/USD remains under pressure but is not yet showing signs of further bearish price movement. The instrument is at a previous support level which is potentially why the price has lost momentum. Traders are hoping that the speech from the Federal Reserve Chair will provide further price drivers for investors to position their trades accordingly.
The only economic release from the UK over the past 24 hours has been the Retail Sales figure from CBI. The index rose 37.0 points instead of the expected decline to -7.0. The results surprised specialists who were counting on a decrease in the purchasing activity of citizens due to a serious rise in the cost of living.
Experts have advised that this may have been triggered by fiscal support from the government over the past month. Nonetheless, analysts predict that economic activity within the UK will continue to decline while the interest rates will increase further.
S&P 500 Outlook
The price movement of S&P 500 is interesting, but traders should be careful not to falsely interpret it for something else. The S&P 500 saw significant declines in the previous week and this Monday.
Although the price has retracted back upwards, this is solely a retracement as a higher swing has not been formed. The downward price movement has lost momentum after reaching a previous support level, and the price is close to forming a Head and Shoulders pattern. It should be noted that the specific pattern has been known to indicate a continuation of the bearish price movement.
S&P 500’s movement is likely to be strongly influenced by Powell’s Jackson Hole speech later today. Investors will be looking for indications of interest rate hikes. Investor confidence may significantly decline if the Chairman hints toward a weaker economic activity or a restrictive monetary policy. So far this morning, the index is slightly lower, but traders will wait for confirmation this afternoon.