Performance Review: Global Markets Suffer Setback in February

By James PicernoETFsMar 01, 2023 06:42AM ET

www.investing.com/analysis/performance-review-global-markets-suffer-setback-in-february-2023-200635792

Performance Review: Global Markets Suffer Setback in February

By James Picerno | Mar 01, 2023 06:42AM ET

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VTI

+1.65%

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TIP

-0.49%

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SHV

+0.01%

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VWO

+1.59%

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BND

-0.56%

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After starting the new year with roaring gains, global markets whimpered in February, posting across-the-board losses, based on a set of proxy ETFs.

Although every corner of risk assets took a hit last month, most asset classes still post gains year to date. But the whipsawing so far in 2023 is extensive, raising questions about what comes next.

The only winner for the major asset classes in February: cash, based on a short-term Treasury fund. The iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:SHV) rose 0.3% last month. The fund is also the only winner at the moment across all the time frames shown in the table below. Amid market expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to lift interest rates, SHV, which benefits from rising yields, looks set for ongoing and incrementally higher gains in the months ahead.

Otherwise, losses in February were posted far and wide, ranging from a moderate 1.4% decline in inflation-indexed Treasuries (TIP) to a sharp selloff in emerging markets stocks (VWO), which tumbled 6.7%.

Asset Classes Total Returns Table

The Global Market Index (GMI) lost ground in February too. This unmanaged benchmark (maintained by CapitalSpectator.com) holds all the major asset classes (except cash) in market-value weights and represents a competitive benchmark for multi-asset-class portfolios. GMI retreated 3.0% last month, although it’s still up a solid 3.4% year to date.

Reviewing GMI’s performance relative to US stocks (VTI) and bonds (BND) over the past year reflects performances in close alignment lately. All three benchmarks are posting unusually similar results at the moment for the trailing one-year window: losses of roughly 8% to 9%.

GMI vs US Stock and Bond Markets

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Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

FED

5.25%

Jun 14, 2023

ECB

3.75%

Jun 15, 2023

BOE

4.50%

Jun 22, 2023

SNB

1.50%

Jun 22, 2023

RBA

3.85%

Jun 06, 2023

BOC

4.50%

Jun 07, 2023

RBNZ

5.50%

Jul 12, 2023

BOJ

-0.10%

Jun 16, 2023

CBR

7.50%

Jun 09, 2023

RBI

6.50%

Jun 08, 2023

PBOC

3.65%

BCB

13.75%

Jun 21, 2023

US 30	33,759.9	+698.3	+2.11%
US 500	4,282.3	+61.3	+1.45%
Dow Jones	33,762.76	+701.19	+2.12%
S&P 500	4,282.37	+61.35	+1.45%
Nasdaq	13,240.77	+139.78	+1.07%
S&P 500 VIX	14.60	0.00	0.00%
Dollar Index	103.990	+0.488	+0.47%

Crude Oil WTI	71.87	+1.77	+2.52%
Brent Oil	76.40	+2.12	+2.85%
Natural Gas	2.177	+0.019	+0.88%
Gold	1,964.15	-0.15	-0.01%
Silver	23.680	-0.015	-0.06%
Copper	3.7292	-0.0038	-0.10%
US Soybeans	1,352.00	+23.00	+1.73%

U.S. 10Y	3.698	+0.005	+0.15%
U.S. 30Y	3.889	+0.006	+0.17%
U.S. 5Y	3.851	+0.009	+0.23%
U.S. 3M	5.385	-0.008	-0.14%
US 10Y T-Note	113.84	-0.89	-0.78%
Euro Bund	134.92	-0.88	-0.65%
10-2 Yield Spread	-81.50	-7.10	9.54%

Apple	180.95	+0.86	+0.48%
Alphabet A	124.67	+0.95	+0.77%
Tesla	213.97	+6.45	+3.11%
Amazon.com	124.25	+1.48	+1.21%
Netflix	400.47	-2.66	-0.66%
Meta Platforms	272.61	0.00	0.00%
Bank of America	28.71	+0.93	+3.35%

Performance Review: Global Markets Suffer Setback in February

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