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Nearly 1 Million Jobs But U.S. Dollar Barely Budges – Here’s Why

By Kathy LienForexApr 02, 2021 03:19PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/nearly-1-million-jobs-but-us-dollar-barely-budges--heres-why-200571013
Nearly 1 Million Jobs But U.S. Dollar Barely Budges – Here’s Why
By Kathy Lien   |  Apr 02, 2021 03:19PM ET
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The most anticipated event risk this week was the March U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Nearly 1 million jobs were created, the most in seven months. Economists were looking for NFPs to rise by 647,000. Instead, it jumped 916,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 6%, which was right in with expectations. Such a blowout jobs number should have driven the US Dollar Index sharply higher, and while the greenback spiked after the initial release, its gains were modest. A large part of that had to do with Easter holidays in the U.S. and abroad. Equity markets were closed, so not many investors were around to react to the report. Average hourly earnings growth also declined, which was a complete surprise. Economists anticipated a modest 0.1% increase, but wages dropped for the first time since June. On top of that the percentage of people on long-term unemployment rose to 43.4% from 41.5%.  
 
Even though there was some underlying weakness, the U.S. dollar’s dominance hasn’t been challenged because the labor market is recovering faster than most other nations. With more than 38% of all adults receiving at least one dose and more than one in five fully vaccinated, the near-term outlook is strong. More jobs will be added in the coming months as we head into a vibrant summer spending season. According to the Center of Disease Control, fully vaccinated people can travel with “little risk” to themselves. This reassurance will help reinvigorate the travel industry. 
 
With many markets still closed for Easter Monday, trading should be quiet at the start of the week. The U.S. has non-manufacturing ISM, factory orders and durable goods due for release. These reports should be strong given robust job growth and acceleration in manufacturing activity. We don’t expect any major movements in Sunday Asian and European trade, but there could be some catchup on Monday for U.S. traders who were out on Good Friday. Currencies will take their cue from the market’s appetite for U.S. dollars on Monday, but as the week progresses, the Australian and Canadian dollars will take center focus.
 
The Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada have monetary policy announcements on the calendar. Changes are not expected from either central bank, but with the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve moving in opposite directions, investors will be eager to see where the RBA and BoC stand. The last time we heard from the RBA, it did not increase policy accommodation. Since then, strong labor data was offset by weaker retail sales and trade. Due to slow vaccine rollout, Canada’s economy is lagging behind the U.S., but last week the Bank of Canada ended its emergency liquidity programs as the economy’s recovery continues. If the RBA maintains its cautiousness and the BoC is slightly more optimistic, we could see a sharp sell-off in AUD/CAD
Nearly 1 Million Jobs But U.S. Dollar Barely Budges – Here’s Why
 

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Nearly 1 Million Jobs But U.S. Dollar Barely Budges – Here’s Why

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Comments (22)
John Cerniuk
John Cerniuk Apr 04, 2021 8:33PM ET
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Merica!
johnson Joel
johnson Joel Apr 04, 2021 6:49PM ET
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I want to earn some cash here
Tubsy SkinntFinger
TubsSkinnyFinger Apr 03, 2021 11:57PM ET
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Got to keep the ponzi pumper printing presses going..
Abhishek Karki
Abhishek Karki Apr 03, 2021 10:17PM ET
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i want money
Luqman Firdaus
Luqman Firdaus Apr 03, 2021 8:51PM ET
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James Kiz
James Kiz Apr 03, 2021 8:23PM ET
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i have a platform where you get more profit
Todd Gray
Todd Gray Apr 03, 2021 6:43PM ET
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im not discounting reopening, but what I don't understand, is why all the overhyped, irrational exuberance considering how down in the hole the big picture is. the real jobless rate is 9 to 10%. earnings are beats on major downward revisions. most will save their stimulus money. and across the board most stocks are trading higher than every before. it's the same as 08. media keeps on pumping buy, buy, buy, when the markets at all time highs, and the underlying conditions are below or near all time lows.
James Kiz
James Kiz Apr 03, 2021 6:43PM ET
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you can use $100 dollars to make more money like $500 dollars just in 48hour
Victor Ng
Victor Ng Apr 03, 2021 6:43PM ET
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In 08 no one work and they still get a mortgage approval. Please take productivity and value added into consideration before screaming crash
Sabur Onib
Sabur Onib Apr 03, 2021 5:33PM ET
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it will be replsced by the imf's sdr coin
Adamo Nals
Adamo Nals Apr 03, 2021 12:18AM ET
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Tech stocks will be worth and are worth half of what they are trading at besides maybe 5 companies in the nasdaq
Adamo Nals
Adamo Nals Apr 03, 2021 12:15AM ET
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Rates will hit 2% this week or darn close.
Adamo Nals
Adamo Nals Apr 03, 2021 12:15AM ET
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Nasdaq will and should finally correct to its proper liquidity induced parabolic fake rise. 10-12k which is still frothy. Period
Bubba Born
Bubba Born Apr 02, 2021 6:11PM ET
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When the middle class has been decimated and the fed has pushed interest rates to zero, the dollar becomes worthless. People will seek out some form of fungible medium and that is why the essentially unregulated Bitcoin is on such a tear.
BC Tt
BC Tt Apr 02, 2021 6:11PM ET
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alternative reserve currency status should be assigned to the Euro or the Chinese yuan.
Ray Steed
Ray Steed Apr 02, 2021 5:17PM ET
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dont fight the fed will prevail
Diddl One
Diddl One Apr 02, 2021 5:17PM ET
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Prevail in what? Please be a little more specific.
Diddl One
Diddl One Apr 02, 2021 5:12PM ET
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I also thought that the $ would be much stronger by now. The relative weakness in the US$ has some other underlying problem. Bretton Woods demise is on the horizon. Far horizon but visible already. $ weakness about to get worse.
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Apr 02, 2021 5:12PM ET
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Bretton Woods ended in 1971. you need to study more
Paul Miles
Paul Miles Apr 02, 2021 5:12PM ET
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to be more precise between 1969 and 73
Diddl One
Diddl One Apr 02, 2021 5:12PM ET
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The result of Brenton Woods was the US$ as World Reserve Currency. That is coming to an end. You should study casue and effect a bit more. :-)
Ach You
Ach You Apr 02, 2021 5:09PM ET
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Ray Steed
Ray Steed Apr 02, 2021 5:09PM ET
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hello
Labossiere Valiere
Labossiere Valiere Apr 02, 2021 5:09PM ET
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Hello
Steve Lora
Steve Lora Apr 02, 2021 4:49PM ET
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Labor stats pre covid had unemployment numbers at 3.4% a d there were 7 million jobs with no one to fill. Today, there are plenty of jobs. Democrats pay ppl to stay home. Even at social services, there is a place to register to vote after unemployment
Adrian White
Adrian White Apr 02, 2021 4:49PM ET
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Democrats have only been in control for less than 3 months. Republicans were "paying people to stay home" for more than 9 months, and there was a higher number of them staying home last year.
LEFTURN INC
LEFTURN INC Apr 02, 2021 4:04PM ET
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Next BoC Interest Rate Decision isn't until April 21. I think Kathy has the weeks mixed up
LEFTURN INC
LEFTURN INC Apr 02, 2021 4:04PM ET
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Next BOC Interest rate decision isn't until April 21
Francesco Lucchesi
Francesco Lucchesi Apr 02, 2021 4:01PM ET
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in other words all is good. the roaring 20s.
Jay ar sogo ni labLadim
Jay ar sogo ni labLadim Apr 02, 2021 4:01PM ET
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How to invest
JP Lynn
JP Lynn Apr 02, 2021 4:00PM ET
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In our socialized policy environment, some are making to much $$ to go back to work. Work would be a pay cut.
Infinite Eight
Infinite Eight Apr 02, 2021 3:38PM ET
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people is willing to accept any job at any price, that's why wages are modestly low. The most relevant data was the whooping 1M jobs added. MAGA is back
Adrian White
Adrian White Apr 02, 2021 3:38PM ET
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MAGA is dead. It's Build Back Better now, and that's what Biden is doing.
 
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