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Natural Gas: Prices Could Plummet in December

Published 12/06/2022, 06:46 AM
Updated 05/27/2024, 01:10 PM

EU and US futures remain stable, guided by the serene climate of the Chinese markets, where the launch of new support measures in China and other measures concerning the management of the pandemic could be announced shortly.

This week the macro agenda revolves around Dec. 8 and 9 with the speech of the president of the ECB and with the US annual PPI, very important for confirming the ongoing decline in inflation.

Nasdaq 100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, DAX, FTSE MIB, IBEX 35The rebound has almost exhausted its strength with the Christmas rally anticipated by the markets by a couple of weeks.

In the short term, I am optimistic that the higher-than-expected drop in inflation in Europe and the US will give further impetus to the markets thanks to the easing of restrictive central bank policies.

We saw last week what a boost any indication of easing the restrictive policy could give the markets. We properly exploited the situation with an excellent Buy operation on the Nasdaq 100 index near the market lows, a position still open.

From 2023 things will change, and I advise you not to miss the next articles to keep up to date.

Natural gas: Natural gas is in free fall as expected. The recent rebound was caused by the wave of intense cold across the US, which brought the demand for heating to a high level.

The cold weather immediately vanished, with temperatures now expected to be higher than the seasonal average for December. In the long run, the situation is interesting.

Europe will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer as the continent reloads storage. Chinese demand recovers from lockdowns and offsets lower imports from other Asian buyers. In the short term, the situation is pessimistic.

In addition, the reopening of various export plants that have been offline for some time is creating an excess in domestic supply, which is also negative for prices. I will not buy gas at these prices for the reasons mentioned.

I will evaluate a long entry only in the $ 4.50 area, which I expect will be tested in December.

Crude oilWe are before a setback for oil. Although not penalizing Russia, the price cap could lead to an increase in demand for American oil, which is very positive for prices.

Furthermore, the Chinese oil demand, held back by Covid, will pick up in 2023, and Opec is ready to intervene with a production cut to support prices in the event of a new collapse.

However, I remain positive in the long term with a target of $90, and I am ready to re-enter after closing an excellent buy operation in profit.

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