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Natural Gas: Prices Could Plummet in December

Published 12/01/2022, 05:27 AM
Updated 05/27/2024, 01:10 PM
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EU and US Futures are in great shape. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments triggered a rally. The top US monetary policy maker signaled that the Fed could start easing its interest rate hikes as early as its next meeting in December.

The launch of new support measures in China and other measures concerning managing the pandemic also contribute to the serene climate on the stock exchanges.

Natural gas: Natural gas regained $7. The rebound is due to the intense cold in the US, which has brought heating demand to high levels. In the long term, the situation is interesting.

Europe will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer as the continent reloads storage and Chinese demand recovers from lockdowns and offsets lower imports from other Asian buyers.

A general agreement seems to have been reached, ensuring greater liquid gas imports from the US and some allied countries at a discounted price. That is not good news for prices. Furthermore, the seasonality of these months is not favorable.

In addition, the reopening of various export plants that have been offline for some time is creating an excess in domestic supply, which is also negative for prices. I will not buy gas at these prices for the reasons mentioned.

I will evaluate a long entry only in the $ 4.50 area, which I expect will be tested in December.

Nasdaq 100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, DAX, FTSE MIB, IBEX 35: The rebound of the indices seemed to have stopped. It looked like a physiological break due to recent record increases. The stock markets have risen too quickly.

In the short term, I am optimistic that the higher-than-expected drop in inflation in Europe and the US will give further impetus to the markets, thanks to the easing of restrictive central bank policies.

We saw yesterday what a boost any indication of easing restrictive policy could give the markets. From 2023 things will change.

Crude oil: Bad news for oil. In China, the 2nd largest oil consumer, COVID seems to have regained strength. OPEC has also cut demand due to inflationary pressures, which in much of the world risk bringing many economies into recession.

A mix of news caused prices to plummet last week. However, I remain positive over the long term with a $90 target. OPEC is ready to intervene with a production cut to support prices even if negative developments should occur in China.

Furthermore, a possible price cap for Russian oil below $50, which would be very penalizing for Russia, could give a new boost to prices if applied in conjunction with a pick-up in Chinese and Indian demand for American oil.

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