On analysis of both the fundamental and the technical factors, I find that both the bulls and the bears are in a state of excessive fury and look well armed with their loaded guns to make a steep move. I find that in such an indecisive scenario, history has always witnessed an eruptive move. At a particular point in time, while every commoner feels full of pessimism, nobody gets a chance to understand that all of a sudden some become full of optimism and a bout of steep up moves start. And on the other hand, while everyone starts feeling full of optimistic for an eruptive up move, suddenly a bout of selling starts. No doubt, every downward move will see bouts of buying, due to absence of short sellers at current levels, while the Natural Gas futures price is inside the oversold zone. On the other hand, every rally will feel selling pressure due to profit booking.
I find that Natural Gas futures at the level of $2.718 is decisive point between the range from $2.688 to $2.888 and a move below $2.643 will be too attractive for bears to show their power. But during this downward move, a sustainable move above the level of $2.767 will enhance the morale of Natural Gas bulls.
On the other hand, a sustainable move above $2.888 will encourage bulls to show their strength up to the $3.023. No doubt, Natural Gas futures price may find some resistance at $3.023 but a crossover from this level will definitely be too supportive for the bulls to test the levels above $3.123 and $3.288. Above the level of $3.288, this uptrend voyage will see a surge in volatility due to lots of profit booking and lots of short covering rallies till $3.333. Be ready to come out of the passive voyage of the most liquid commodity of the World which has had become the daily routine since last few weeks. Be careful and full of patience before taking any position, especially when the Natural Gas futures price is about to enter into a volatile zone.
No doubt, opening on the first trading session will play a decisive role in defining the further move of the Natural Gas futures price but every action will have a reactive move in the opposite direction at least for first two trading sessions. Expect a propositional trading zone for the Week of March 11th, 2018.
Disclosure
1. This content is for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered as an investment advice or an investment recommendation. Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital be involved which you are prepared to lose.
2. Remember, YOU push the buy button and the sell button. Investors are always reminded that before making any investment, you should do your own proper due diligence on any name directly or indirectly mentioned in this article. Investors should also consider seeking advice from an investment and/or tax professional before making any investment decisions. Any material in this article should be considered general information, and not relied on as a formal investment recommendation.