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Natural Gas: Bulls Likely to Dictate Price Action

Published 09/27/2023, 09:27 AM

Since my last analysis natural gas futures remain extremely volatile amid concerns over the supply and demand mismatch, but the overall tone has been bullish.

In the 4-hour chart, the natural gas futures have found a strong base at $2.858 after consolidating at $2.676, as I predicted in my last analysis.

Natural Gas Futures 4 Hr. Chart

Certainly, the next immediate hurdle for natural gas futures stands at $2.931. However, a sustained breakthrough beyond this level could potentially propel these futures above the subsequent resistance at $3.018. This test of the $3.018 resistance seems likely given the current weather-driven demand that favors natural gas bulls.

According to reports from natgasweather.com, we can anticipate warm conditions in the southern US, with temperatures ranging from the 80s to the 90s. The rest of the US is expected to experience pleasant weather with temperatures in the 60s to 80s, except for cooler conditions in the 50s across the stormy Northwest.

Weather systems will bring rain and mild temperatures in the 50s to 60s in the West this weekend, while the rest of the country will remain mostly temperate, with temperatures in the 60s to 80s, and even hotter conditions in the 90s in the far southern US. Overall, the national demand for natural gas is expected to remain low to very low over the next 7 days.

I believe that if natural gas futures experience a downward shift but manage to stay above $2.777, it would serve as a second confirmation for an impending breakout move above $3.258 in the near future.

Despite enduring substantial selling pressure, recent movements in natural gas futures have shown signs of forming a solid base during August and September 2023. The first base was established at $2.5, followed by a second base at $2.767, coinciding with the 200 Days Moving Average. It appears that a third base formation is taking shape around $2.931 this week, which could pave the way for natural gas futures to trade above $3.

Although volatility may remain elevated due to low volumes in options trading, the put/call open interest ratio currently sitting below 1 could favor the bulls in controlling price action in their favor.

Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. All the readers should create any position at their own risk as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities in the world.

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