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Natural Gas: Bears In The Driver's Seat

By Satendra SinghCommoditiesAug 04, 2022 12:38PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/natural-gas-bears-in-the-drivers-seat-200628089
Natural Gas: Bears In The Driver's Seat
By Satendra Singh   |  Aug 04, 2022 12:38PM ET
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Analyzing the movements of the natural gas futures pre and post-weekly inventory time frames indicate continuity of wild price swings to continue till this weekly closing as both the bears and bulls have turned aggressive to capture the driving seat.

Wednesday, natural gas bulls come out of their den at $7.565 to drive the price up to the day’s peak at $8.447. No doubt this move attracted big bears to thrash bulls.

But I find momentum still looks in favor of the bulls despite the announcement of today’s weekly inventory that shows a build of +41 Bcf, larger than the market expectations of +32 Bcf and slightly larger than the 5-year average of +33 Bcf to improve supplies from 2,416 Bcf to 2,457.

Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart
Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart

Technically speaking, on the weekly chart, the commodity is facing stiff resistance at $8.2. I find that this could result in a steep slide if the price finds a sustainable move below $7.777 in today’s trading session, as the big exhaustive candle during the past week will continue to encourage the bears to sell rallies below $8.549.

Natural Gas Futures Daily Chart
Natural Gas Futures Daily Chart

On the daily chart, natural gas futures are currently finding stiff resistance at 9 DMA, currently at $8.484. They could hit the 26 DMA shortly if not able to hold $7.948 in today’s trading session, as the selling is clearly visible on every upward move.

I find a breakdown below 26 DMA could drag down the futures up to the lower band of ‘Ichimoku Clouds’ currently at $6.817 before this weekly closing.

Finally, I conclude that only a weekly closing by the Natural Gas Futures above $8.064 could confirm the continuity of the bullish trend during the upcoming week.
Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk; as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities of the world.

Natural Gas: Bears In The Driver's Seat
 

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Natural Gas: Bears In The Driver's Seat

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Comments (8)
Jay Means
Jay Means Aug 06, 2022 7:14AM ET
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Mr. Singh, bulls live in pens not dens.  Bears live in dens.  I think this is an example of your good analysis and an effective use of the cloud.
Satendra Singh
Satendra Aug 06, 2022 7:14AM ET
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Dear Mr. Jay thanks for your comments. No doubt you are absolutely right on this point. Here, I wish to share with everybody  that while I write on energy or other commodities, I devote my soul  up to extreme levels and forget everything in the process of digging out the exact turning point of the price-movement of that particular commodity.
재구 문
재구 문 Aug 05, 2022 11:01AM ET
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he is best analyst .Thanks.
Satendra Singh
Satendra Aug 05, 2022 11:01AM ET
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Thanks for your support.  Best Wishes to you and your family.  Good Luck.
Phong Nguyen
Phong Nguyen Aug 04, 2022 8:22PM ET
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As usual this guy played with his words again, dancing around to cover his behind both ways, and neither way making any sense !Be a man, have guts and stand up for your belief !!!
Manish Kapoor
Manish Kapoor Aug 04, 2022 8:03PM ET
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So what's the point of this analysis......bullish or bearish ? Final thoughts are still unclear
al coleman
geppetto Aug 04, 2022 7:53PM ET
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Thank you for your comments!
Anil Krishna Batra
Anil Krishna Batra Aug 04, 2022 2:11PM ET
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Although you find momentum still looks in favor of the bulls, still heading of column is "Bears in driver's seat".
Satendra Singh
Satendra Aug 04, 2022 2:11PM ET
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Dear Mr. Batra thanks for your comments.  Don't forget to read my next article on natural gas, coming shortly.  Your comments inspired me to resolve your issue in my  upcoming article.  Best wishes!  Good Luck!
Anil Krishna Batra
Anil Krishna Batra Aug 04, 2022 2:11PM ET
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Although you find momentum still looks in favor of the bulls, still heading of column is "Bears in driver's seat".
Anil Krishna Batra
Anil Krishna Batra Aug 04, 2022 2:10PM ET
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Although you find momentum still looks in favor of the bulls, still heading of coloumn is "Bears in driver's seat". Confused soul.
 
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