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Natural Gas: Are New 52-Week Lows in the Offing?

Published 09/14/2023, 04:32 AM
Updated 05/27/2024, 01:10 PM
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The current period is characterized by strong volatility in the natural gas markets of the United States and Europe.
 
 U.S. natural gas futures ranged between $2.5/MMBtu and $2.6/MMBtu.
 
The IEA reported that inventories are increasing more slowly than expected, with demand declining due to seasonally cooler temperatures.
 
However, some restrictions on operations at LNG export facilities limit extraction from American soil, and strikes at Chevron (NYSE:CVX)'s LNG plant in Australia contribute to price volatility.
 
Despite all this, Natural Gas futures remain stable at around 36 euros/MWh in Europe and $2.55 in the USA.
 
One wonders why American natural gas prices have not risen, despite rising global temperatures, dwindling offshore platforms around the United States, and several hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.
 
Europe and the United States have ample supplies of natural gas.
 
Last summer, after large purchases during the war between Russia and Ukraine, fossil energy supplies remained adequate thanks to the abnormally mild winter.
 
All this allowed the supply to be quite stable in the first months of the year.
 
There is no need to worry about the effects of natural gas shortages, both for users and companies.
 
We have adequate supplies to ensure an economical and reliable supply.
 
The tremendous winter humidity and high snowfall that hit the western United States in 2022 weren't just a nuisance; they have also caused an increase in demand for hydroelectricity, which decreases demand for natural gas energy.
 
Last year, the West saw a sharp increase in natural gas consumption, but this season appears to be different.
 
There will not be as much consumption as initially expected.
 
Furthermore, storms in the Atlantic do not have the expected negative impact on American production.
 
El Niño blows into the Gulf, offering protection from major hurricanes.
 
Remember that investors have another option besides trading natural gas futures.

Natural Gas Daily Chart

In fact, they can focus on related stocks such as gas producers and distributors.

These securities offer dividends and are ideal for all those who do not want to commit to studying the futures curve.
 
Antero Resources (NYSE:AR) Corporation is a company engaged in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties located in the Appalachian Basin.
 
It is one of the largest independent energy companies. Their business is divided into three sectors: exploration, development, and production of natural gas, NGL, and oil.
 
From the technical analysis standpoint, you can easily notice a medium-term bearish trend.
 
Prices are sitting well below the 200-period moving average, with high volumes supporting the move.
 
The negative trend is, therefore, well-defined.
 
My model predicts annual lows in the $2 area.

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