The gains seen in the dollar against the Europeans were very encouraging. The EUR/USD reached just 1 point below my target though the USD/CHF was stronger than expected in reaching 0.9028. The strength in USD/CHF doesn’t break the structure but more stretches this expected leg a little higher only. Having said this, the expectation from here for these two is more for range trading in what could be a messy end to the week. The limits for these are fairly well defined so take note of the expected extremes.
As for the GBP/USD, I had two alternatives and it took the second though stalled 9 points below the ideal target. This has a tougher outlook to be certain of the internal development. Ideally it should be quite weak. What is more difficult to judge is how deep any earlier correction higher can probe. This will take more judgement compared to the Continentals and thus take more care here.
The AUD/USD did amazingly well. I offered one count that I thought could fit into the complex puzzle we were seeing and it appears to have worked out well. However, it will need to remain independent of the Europeans again but once a drop has been completed could well come back into correlation. However, this is another currency pair that needs some care lavished upon it to confirm the expectations I have.
The USD/JPY was not quite what I expected in terms of the move higher to break the prior 105.41 high by 2 points but the subsequent downside worked a lot better. Combined with the EUR/JPY that saw a deeper correction there are signs of strength in the cross that could imply both USD/JPY and EUR/USD have to be firm to drive it higher. The USD/JPY had a relatively wide range of potential support and it reached the top end so while there are some doubts I have due to the fact I can’t see the EUR/USD or USD/JPY pushing directly higher in a straight line, the day does look positive for both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY but care will be required.
The most clear trades are in the EUR/USD and USD/CHF extremes.
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Most Clear Trades Are In EUR/USD And USD/CHF Extremes
Published 01/03/2014, 12:07 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
Most Clear Trades Are In EUR/USD And USD/CHF Extremes
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