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Market Freefall And Volatility Restrained, But Risks Loom

By FxPro Financial Services Ltd (Alexander Kuptsikevich)Market OverviewApr 06, 2020 05:49AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/markets-are-ignoring-the-economy-coronavirus-is-in-the-spotlight-200520725/
Market Freefall And Volatility Restrained, But Risks Loom
By FxPro Financial Services Ltd (Alexander Kuptsikevich)   |  Apr 06, 2020 05:49AM ET
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The world markets start the week with growth on the background of signs of stabilization of COVID-19 spreading rates. Previously, we have repeatedly noted that markets can get support when the daily increase of new cases decreases. Of course, this does not mean the end of the disease, and it won’t be evidence of solving all economic problems. But it can be the point where markets can form the basis for further growth. The incidence statistics now looks like a more reliable economic indicator than the actual data, which is noticeably lagging. Economists are catastrophically far from reality in their estimates, but markets do not notice this.

Some hopes for slower spreading
Some hopes for slower spreading


Extreme monetary easing and unprecedented stimulus announced by major governments have allowed markets to soften the decline and move away from lows. Unprecedented restrictive measures managed to reduce the spread of the disease, which restrained the market’s freefall and reduced their volatility.

SPX
SPX


We may cautiously speak about some decline of the uncertainty because, with the decreasing rate of spreading the infection, the measures to contain it are also softening.

The US labor market data published on Friday showed a decline in employment by 701k in March, compared to expected 100k. However, the employment estimates are based on data from the first half of March – even before there were 10 million initial claims for unemployment benefits in two weeks.

NFP's steep fall has not frighened the markets
NFP's steep fall has not frighened the markets


If the situation does not improve significantly in April, the number of lost jobs could reach millions this month. The good news is that the markets are not scared. They probably took this into account in asset prices earlier during the decline in March.

Another critical factor, as we mentioned above, was pumping the financial system with liquidity. As a result, we are witnessing the financial markets flooded with money, which reduces their value. By flooding the markets with liquidity, central banks are raising stock prices as if the tide is lifting all the boats in the harbor. However, the water in the sea is stormy, and the bottom is still rocky.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Market Freefall And Volatility Restrained, But Risks Loom
 

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Market Freefall And Volatility Restrained, But Risks Loom

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