Market Overview

The economic bears, citing a contraction in retail sales, have been saying a deep recession ahead. Many of them, however, have been 'predicting' this outcome for years. In a world defined by cycles...

It is undoubtedly the case that a ‘Yes’ vote on September 18 will lead to short-term mayhem. While I want to emphasise here that this is not our central expectation – and today's...

On Wednesday next week the Fed will decide whether or not to change its forward guidance from the ‘considerable time’ language to a guidance linking it to the economic developments and how...

The foreign exchange market is subdued. The yen and dollar-bloc currencies remain soft, while the European complex is flat. Even with limited movement, there are three currency developments to note....

The two main themes of the week have been the ongoing Ukrainian crisis and opinion polls that suggest the referendum on Scotland’s independence could lead to a victory for the secessionists. It...

Today is the day when new European sanctions on Russia will kick in today. European leaders have taken this to a completely different level this time, by putting restriction on the most sensitive...

We no longer expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to announce any new easing measures in connection with its meeting on 31 October. The main arguments for our new view are as follows. First, there has not...

Large GDP revisions next week. Inflationary impact in 2015 of political parties' proposals. Reduce duration in portfolio. Time for 5s10s to flatten - SGBi3019s versus 10Y Bunds offer...

Another day, another opinion poll in the Scottish referendum debate and a gathering momentum for those in favour of keeping the union. A snap poll by YouGov showed the ‘No’ camp regaining...

Dollar extends its rally against commodity currencies and yen today. Meanwhile, the greenback continues to consolidate against European majors in tight range. Dollar is supported by speculation that...

US middle market leveraged buyout (LBO) transactions are becoming increasingly frothy. According to the latest data from Lincoln International, risk-return fundamentals in the space are worse than...

Forecasts of stock market crash ahead continue to populate the headlines.  The reasons for the crash varying from excessive valuations (i.e. fundamentals) to the termination of the Fed's easy...

I came across a couple of news items that appeared to be disturbing on the surface to which the markets haven't really reacted. First, there was this Reuters report of the meeting between China's...

1. Many are arguing that the dollar's rally reflects a shift in expectations of Fed policy. There seems to be little evidence for this. A shift in expectations would be most directly reflected in...