Market Overview

-- VIX challenged weekly mid-cycle resistance at 14.27, but closed the week beneath weekly Long-term support at 13.53.This week’s breakout above last week’s high may be a signal to exit...

"It is a bad sign for the market when all the bears give up. If no-one is left to be converted, it usually means no-one is left to buy.” -- Pater Tenebrarum That quote got me thinking about the...

The economic bears, citing a contraction in retail sales, have been saying a deep recession ahead. Many of them, however, have been 'predicting' this outcome for years. In a world defined by cycles...

It is undoubtedly the case that a ‘Yes’ vote on September 18 will lead to short-term mayhem. While I want to emphasise here that this is not our central expectation – and today's...

On Wednesday next week the Fed will decide whether or not to change its forward guidance from the ‘considerable time’ language to a guidance linking it to the economic developments and how...

The foreign exchange market is subdued. The yen and dollar-bloc currencies remain soft, while the European complex is flat. Even with limited movement, there are three currency developments to note....

Today is the day when new European sanctions on Russia will kick in today. European leaders have taken this to a completely different level this time, by putting restriction on the most sensitive...

Market MoversIn the US the main event is the release of retail sales for August. After some moderation in retail sales in the previous month we expect solid gains in August driven mainly by...

Large GDP revisions next week. Inflationary impact in 2015 of political parties' proposals. Reduce duration in portfolio. Time for 5s10s to flatten - SGBi3019s versus 10Y Bunds offer...

Bank of Rossii: to hike or not to hike Russia's central bank will announce its decision regarding the key rates on Friday 12 September at 11:30 CET. Like consensus, we expected rates to remain...

Another day, another opinion poll in the Scottish referendum debate and a gathering momentum for those in favour of keeping the union. A snap poll by YouGov showed the ‘No’ camp regaining...

Dollar extends its rally against commodity currencies and yen today. Meanwhile, the greenback continues to consolidate against European majors in tight range. Dollar is supported by speculation that...

US middle market leveraged buyout (LBO) transactions are becoming increasingly frothy. According to the latest data from Lincoln International, risk-return fundamentals in the space are worse than...

Forecasts of stock market crash ahead continue to populate the headlines.  The reasons for the crash varying from excessive valuations (i.e. fundamentals) to the termination of the Fed's easy...