Market Overview

Bubbles are followed by echo-bubbles, and the bursting of the second bubble ends the speculative cycle.If we have learned anything in the past 20 years of massive asset bubbles and equally massive...

Summary: First quarter GDP growth was stronger than originally estimated. When adjusted for seasonality, the economy grew 1.8%, which is consistent with the average growth rate over the past three...

Easter shift affected the quarter “This was a unique quarter with several external factors impacting Dollar Tree and other retailers. In particular, a calendar shift with Easter falling two...

The minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting released yesterday largely reflected the official statement from April 29. Much like the BoC, which remains uncertain about the impact recent shocks will...

FX Quant Strategy provides a quantitative overview of the currency market, including several valuation tools and monitors, focusing on the FX options market. This week we recommend two FX option...

A sell-off into the end of the session on Wednesday appears to be feeding into stock futures this morning after the Federal Open Market Committee minutes once again showed policy makers brushed off...

Summary: This post looks at the recent economic data, but not to convince you about the rightness of my forecast (more slow growth), but rather to help you make sense of the river of economic data the...

The US dollar index advanced for the first three days of the week but is under some pressure today. The FOMC minutes confirmed what the market already knows, which is that a rate hike next month is...

FTSE remains anchored to 7000Last night’s Fed minutes all but ruled out a rate hike in June owing to the weakness of first quarterly growth and the lack of inflation. More recent weak macro data...

Fed acknowledges the slowdownLast night’s Federal Reserve minutes were an exercise in disappointment. The Fed shrugged, the market shrugged and then everyone went for a pint. ‘Twas ever...

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes last night failed to provide much to go on, at least if we’re to use the Fed Funds futures as our measure, as these were virtually unchanged in...

I would like to say that if you’ve taken a statistics and probability course you don’t need to read David J. Hand’s The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare...

I want to give you a truthful look at what's happening in the single most underestimated, misunderstood, and perpetually disrespected country on earth: China. We'll examine why China's stock...

The first chart I would like to show is the long term monthly chart for the US dollar which I showed recently. It was coming into contact with the top rail of a massive 30 year falling wedge at 93.50....