Market Overview

Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.Overall, the main positives...

NZ Retail Sales release is a quarterly release therefore it is more likely to surprise than the monthly release, thus if we get a surprise today, especially if the surprise goes in the direction of...

CurrenciesEUR/USD – fell sharply due to the NFP, but managed to correct quite a bit of the drop in the hours afterwards (nearly half of the move). The strong NFP is definitely causing some more...

Maybe the "smart money" knows the real numbers are now so far from the central planners' rigged statistics that the carefully constructed narrative of "recovery" is doomed to an unwelcome intrusion of...

In a recent article, Peter Degraaf posted a series of charts including the one below. I must confess I had never seen this particular chart before but extremely glad it was posted. I knew the monetary...

Weak industrial activity – expect a a solid rebound in today’s June report Eurozone investor sentiment could slide in today’s monthly update from Sentix The Fed’s Labor Market...

Friday’s NFP pounded expectations, with the July print showing an addition of 255,000 jobs.USD Non-Farm Employment Change: 255K v 180K expected and 292K (revised up from 287K) previous.USD...

The NFP clearly had its impact. I could have kicked myself in EUR/USD. Since the 27th July, I had the target for the top between 1.1225-75 but failed to notice the deep Wave (b)/(v)… Thus, the...

June’s 124.7 billion deficit rose from 113.4 billion in Q4 2015 and a 2.7% increase in current dollar GDP from 2.5% in Q4 2015. The quarterly figures hardly informs the overall view in Balance...

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report beat market expectations with a read of 255K jobs created in July against a forecast of 180K. The data revived Fed hawks and brings rate hikes by the end of 2016...

Derivatives Essentials: An Introduction to Forwards, Futures, Options, and Swaps (Wiley, 2016) by Aron Gottesman is an excellent textbook/self-study guide. It describes the basic concepts of...

At Walmart (NYSE:WMT), the patrons seem to have better cars and smartphones than I own - and yet do not believe these patrons are as financially secure as I am. Is the spending pattern changing...

In early 2005, the US Senate began debating a bill seeking to impose a broad 27.5% tariff on Chinese exports to the United States. Congress was emotionally moved by the supposed problem of pegging the...

In their latest announcement, the Fed attempted to prop up the stock market. They attempted to sound hawkish, however, the market paid not any heed to it. The Fed annulment was reflected in a manner...