Market Overview

CurrenciesEUR/USD – moved sharply up as the USD moved down although we are seeing the opposite occurring this morning. It is still very much possible that we will break below the lows of last...

In this presentation, we analyse the Fed's operational framework, the current and future conditions in the Fed funds market and the settlement of the Fed funds rate.At the FOMC meeting this week, we...

When the estimates for factor orders were released earlier this month, there was an unusual pattern for the revision of September’s preliminary figures. Subsequent data suggested that factory...

UK CPI is expected to rise to a two-year high in today’s November update Economists project ZEW survey data for Germany to tick higher in December US Small business optimism in November is on...

Recently while watching Mike Maloney I saw him picking up on Ben Bernanke’s talk from 2002. Fourteen years in the world of finance is an era but Bernanke’s words are still actual and...

“How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?” – Alan Greenspan, December 5, 1996 “What was that all about?” Such was the question most...

Note: We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index through Thursday's release, which includes jobless claims through December 3. The Philly Fed's Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business...

Key Points: FOMC likely to hike rates by 25bps. A lack of forward guidance from Yellen could send the USD reeling. FFR rate hike 100% priced in. Global currency markets are facing a key risk event...

Phew, that was a strange day. Not quite as I expected for one or two pairs, but in others there were extreme pullbacks and a total outlier in, maybe you can guess, the Aussie that seems to have been...

The Federal Reserve would do Donald Trump and his supporters a favor by raising interest rates.President Obama’s economy—the dearth of decent paying jobs in rust belt communities and...

We expect Norges Bank (NB) to keep the sight deposit rate unchanged at 0.50% at Thursday's meeting and over the next 12M.Economic data have on balance disappointed over the last months but given the...

Oil (WTI) is up by more than 4% on this beautiful wintery morning. On the weekend, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Russia came to an agreement to reduce output, lowering the daily production of non-OPEC...

Even before Donald Trump has put himself in the presidential seat, he has started a diplomatic crisis with China . By questioning the support of the One China policy, Trump is using the most sensitive...

2016 was the year of political risk. From Trump to Brexit, China's ongoing economic and political transitions, India's demonetisation, PM resignations, leadership transitions, geopolitical risks,...