Market Overview

Market movers today The calendar is relatively empty today with US core capital goods being the only US key number. However, the busy Fed week continues with Daniel K. Tarullo speaking. In...

We estimate non-farm payrolls increased by 160,000 in March, a bit below the consensus estimate of 175,000.We estimate the unemployment remained at 4.7% and average hourly earnings increased 0.2% m/m,...

The discrepancy between the ISM’s Report on Business and Markit’s Manufacturing PMI assessment of the economy widened today.Both reports agree that cost inflation is rising quickly despite...

The final motor vehicles numbers for March are now in.First Quarter GDP estimates will dive as sales were far below the lowest estimate. The Econoday consensus estimate was 14.4 million, seasonally...

The ISM came out with a rosy assessment of the economy today, noting 17 out of the 18 industries reported growth in March. New orders were up in 18 out of 18.Color me truly skeptical because the ISM...

The Hybrid Lindsay model is forecasting a high on or near today, 4/3/17. Traditional cycle analysis is also pointing to a high today and no low until the second half of the month.Point E on 4/5/06 of...

In 2008, subprime mortgages almost single-handedly took down the entire financial system, and now a new subprime crisis is here. In recent years, the auto industry has been able to boost sales by...

Note: The charts below have been updated to include today's preliminary report on U.S. Light Vehicle sales from Motor IntelligenceFor the past few years, we've been following a couple of...

One thing I’ve been watching closely over the last couple of years is the pace of global trade growth. In the lead-up to the market turmoil in late 2015 and the near-miss recession in 2016 there...

Markets were steady on Monday with no sign yet of a resumption of last week’s dip-buying in stocks. Anecdotally, traders appear to be waiting for FOMC minutes and the US unemployment report to...

The “real” Atlanta Fed’s reading of Q1 GDP went off a cliff to less than 1%:No one has the slightest idea of what is happening as insane levels of debt distort the model’s that...

The election of the 45th president brought with it great enthusiasm for the U.S. economy to break out of its eight-year growth malaise and to provide it with a huge adrenaline shot of inflation. But...

The U.S. dollar ended last week on a high note as confidence regarding the world’s largest economy remained high. European currencies are still fragile due to the long process of taking the...

As we enter into the second quarter of 2017 one question is swirling around my mind: are the markets overestimating the amount of geopolitical risk in Europe whilst underestimating the risk of a...