Market Overview

The White House issues page titled Bringing Back Jobs And Growth claims “President Trump has outlined a bold plan to create 25 million new American jobs in the next decade and return to 4...

(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)EM FX closed last week on a firm note, as the stronger than expected US jobs gain was mitigated by lower than expected average hourly earnings. Still, we believe that...

The latest weekly equity (and bonds) sentiment poll I take on Twitter has produced some interesting results this week. I have done this poll each week for about a year now, and have collected the...

Well it's ChartBrief number 100 and what better way to mark the milestone with a look at a milestone in the emergence of emerging markets. We first showed this chart last year - the % share of global...

by Pinchas CohenThe Week That WasThe US labor market continues to be a bright spot for the US economy and Friday morning’s nonfarm payrolls release of 220,000 beat estimates, with a revised...

Over the past week, most of my core market health indicators rose dramatically. It appears that market internals are preparing for a move higher. As I mentioned last week, it looks like the current...

In terms of employment growth, the June jobs report was strong.Jobs report underpins the Fed's dilemma: unemployment and (wage) inflation are low at the same time (the opposite situation of the...

The payroll report for June 2017 was the first “good” one in some time. There are now a few indications that the “reflation” in the economy may be finally having positive...

At the Fed, the debate is over normalization of the balance sheet. The Fed has already finished tapering. The ECB is still addicted to a balance sheet build-up.In contrast, the ECB is still addicted...

Variant Perception notes China Broad Credit Growth Slows to Zero. The side effect is a huge amount of collateral damage. The recent tightening of credit we have seen in China is primarily aimed at...

Every week we post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press...

Note: This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment for June.Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee,...

Last week's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 144.0, up 0.9 from previous reports. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is...

By accepting life's limits and inevitabilities and working with them rather than fighting them, we become free.You just know there are certain things in life which are going to happen. For example,...