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Is Low Volatility Really A Problem?

Published 10/01/2017, 02:26 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

What we have witnessed in 2017 is astonishing with the VIX, the volatility indicator that is supposed to measure levels of fear. In July, there was a record set for consecutive days under 10%, and that record may get smashed again in the coming days.

Now, most people associate a low VIX with high complacency, no fear or worry about a market pullback. That would generally be correct, however when the conditions are such that buyers continue to pour money into the markets, even the most adept psychological profiler can wrong. This is a psychological effect and not a financial one, so trying to predict behavior is probably not a good idea.

What has many out there frustrated beyond belief is that history is not guiding them to making the right decisions. Simply put, if you put your faith and trust into what 'should be happening' rather than what is actually happening, then you'll miss the boat every time. Low volatility is not a problem until it starts to trend higher - then it can become an issue.

If we look back on the prior nine months we can say with confidence that equity buyers have shown no fear, and even bolder have been selling volatility. It's one thing to be on one side of the market, quite a different story to double down and continue a trend where the markets have never been before.

Many pundits out there continue to scream about how these markets are defying the odds, they can't go any higher. That has been a cry for years and since the Fed instituted QE, but the facts are the market ignores the noise. That's a good idea for any investor and trader. The VIX indicator is about the actually money being put down, not speculation or noise. Stick with the facts, they will carry you where you need to be.

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