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Is Gold Signaling Inflation?

Published 12/08/2020, 12:03 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
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GLD-TLT Daily Chart

The current market situation shows a quick attempt to push a smaller stimulus bill by the end of December before eviction protection and unemployment benefits end.

If failed it could potentially leave as many as 19 million people at risk from becoming evicted.

This potential strain on the market could be the reason that safety plays such as gold (NYSE:GLD) and  20-year U.S bonds (TLT) have moved up recently as worries grow over cut benefits.

Above you can see a chart of TLTs showing a potential double bottom pattern from its recent low at 154.77.

Additionally, GLD has made a comeback from 166 and is now looking to make a phase change if it closes over the 50 day moving average at 176.50.

With that said, NASDAQ did make a new all-time high as did the Russell 2000 IWM. Hope springs eternal.

In the meantime, the early dip in food commodities was bought up by investors along with gold, silver and gold miners.

Steel continues to rise and a new shining trade-uranium woke up this past week.

With the dollar weak, bonds yields falling again, more stim behind this stop gap measure if passes, and a potential rally in oil and energy, inflation is still very much on our minds for 2021.

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S&P 500 (SPY)  Strong close with an Inside Day.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Closed near last week's highs with support 180.30

Dow (DIA) 300 is important to hold as new support.

Nasdaq (QQQ) Record close. 300 support the 10-DMA

KRE (Regional Banks) 51.07 Resistance. Support 47.22

SMH (Semiconductors) Strong close with 210 support the 10-DMA

IYT (Transportation) 225.49 resistance. 218.64 support.

IBB (Biotechnology) Needs to close over 148 resistance. 145 area support.

XRT (Retail) Support 59.24

Latest comments

Additionally on the subject of GLD's insurance, they are not at all straightforward about it. Their representatives will not confirm nor deny the existence of GLD's insurance. I recommend anyone curious about this to confirm via calling GLD's publicly listed number for general inquiries at 866 320 4053 and ask about this clause from the GLD prospectus: "The Custodian maintains insurance with regard to its business on such terms and conditions as it considers appropriate which does not cover the full amount of gold held in custody." Exactly how much of the fund is insured? They will not give you a straight answer and might even throw in some bizarre excuse which I've experienced. Why hide this information from investors? The people behind GLD certainly do not seem like the most honest types.
"NYSE:GLD" Michele Schneider, I frequently see you write about this particular gold fund. I've spent quite a bit of time doing my due diligence into GLD. Would you happen to know why there is a clause in the GLD prospectus that states GLD has no right to audit subcustodial gold holdings? The GLD managing organizations sure went out of their way to create this glaring audit loophole. What is the purpose of this loophole? Additionally, the GLD organizations promise that this fund is 100% backed by actual physical gold but yet they staunchly deny retail investors the right to any of their listed physical gold.  I also remember there was a well documented visit by CNBC's Bob Pisani to GLD's gold vault. This visit was organized by GLD's management to prove the existence of GLD's gold but the gold bar held up by Mr. Pisani had the serial number ZJ6752 which did not appear on the most recent bar list at that time. It was later discovered that this 'GLD' bar was actually owned by ETF Securities.
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