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Late-July Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) broke out above the (blue) trendline that has held all upside in check since its bottom late-December 2018. The breakout was thus significant, and it was back tested recently. So far both are classic technical bullish behaviors for a stock: breakout, retest the breakout, and if it holds rally some more.
From an Elliott Wave Principle (POV), the first retest in September could have already been all of red wave-iv. The subsequent rally was then a leading diagonal (green) wave-1. In a diagonal 1st and 4th waves (grey wave-i, iv during the September->October rally) often overlap. The grey arrows show the diagonal/wedge type pattern.
Then AAPL corrected once again but made a higher low. This can be counted as (green) wave-2. The recent rally into Monday’s high was then (grey) wave-i of (green) wave-3. If yesterday’s low holds, as a possible wave-ii, using standard Fibonacci-extensions and retraces for 3rd, 4th and 5th waves, I find that wave-v of 3 at the typical 200.00% extension targets almost exactly the green 161.80% extension ($144.26 vs $143.06). This suggests the EWP count as shown is correct.
AAPL daily candle stick chart with technical indicators and preferred Elliott Wave count
The alternative is wave-iv bottomed at the 2nd retest of the blue trendline late-October and AAPL is now one wave-degree behind regarding what I just mentioned: grey wave-i is than a green wave-1 instead. The upside will then likely only be $144ish baring any unforeseeable extensions of the waves.
Bottom line, if the recent September and October lows hold, I prefer to look higher for AAPL to $144-151.
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