Inflation Remains Mild, Though Some Costs Increase

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest CPI data this morning. Year-over-year unadjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.52%, which the BLS rounds to 1.5%, down from 1.96% last month (rounded to 2.0%). Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.76% (rounded to 1.8%), up from last month's 1.70%.

Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted data monthly data:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Increases in the indexes for shelter and medical care contributed to the increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index; they also accounted for most of the 0.1 percent increase in the index for all items less food and energy. Within all items less food and energy, the indexes for personal care, tobacco, and apparel rose as well, while the indexes for airline fares, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks declined.

The food index rose slightly in August, with the fruits and vegetable index rising 1.2 percent and four of the six major grocery store group indexes increasing. The energy index declined 0.3 percent, due mostly to a sharp decline in the index for natural gas. The gasoline and electricity indexes also declined slightly, while the index for fuel oil rose.

The all items index increased 1.5 percent over the last 12 months. The index for all items less food and energy has risen 1.8 percent over the last year; the 12-month change has remained in the range of 1.6 percent to 2.3 percent since June of 2011. The food index rose 1.4 percent over the last 12 months, a figure that has held steady since May. The energy index declined 0.1 percent over the last 12 months. More...

The Investing.com consensus forecast was for a 0.2% MoM for Headline and 0.1% for Core CPI. Their YoY forecast for Core CPI was spot-on at 1.8%. They were looking for Headline at 1.6%.

The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since 1957. The second chart gives a close-up of the two since 2000.

On the chart below I've highlighted 2 to 2.5 percent range. Two percent has generally been understood to be the Fed's target for core inflation. However, the December 12 FOMC meeting raised the inflation ceiling to 2.5% for the next year or two while their accommodative measures (low Fed Funds Rate and quantitative easing) are in place.

Federal Reserve policy, which has historically focused on core inflation, and especially the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), will see that the latest core CPI is below the near-term target range of 2 to 2.5 percent, and the more volatile headline inflation, is well below the target range.