The US Dollar managed to stop its fall as the US Dollar Index (USDX), which measures the Dollar’s performance against other majour currencies closed 0.12% higher.
Gold retreated from its recent high as the Dollar also retreated, while uncertainty about future policy of global central banks remains a concern. Oil could not hold onto its gains ad had the worst trading day of 2018, while Russia’s Energy minister rushed to reassure markets of its commitment to the OPEC production cut deal.
US equity indices closed lower, despite on-target earnings of blue chips like Citigroup (NYSE:C) and General Motors (NYSE:GM).
Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies retreated by 20% or more on Tuesday as markets are still unsure how the most recent regulatory restrictions in China and South Korea – two significantly important sources of cryptocurrency speculators – will further affect cryptocurrencies. It is reported that China now also plans to block domestic access to global centralized cryptocurrency exchanges.
On Wednesday in the US the Mortgage Bankers' Association index data as well as Redbook Store Sales, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data will be released. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release oil stockpile figures. The Bank of Canada is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision.
The EUR/USD retreated slightly from recent highs as German and Italian inflation figures were according to market expectations and the European Central Bank (ECB) is rumored to not drop the bond buying program at the policy meeting next week. Little economic data came from the US, with the Empire State General Business Conditions survey showing with 17.7 a result below expectations (expected 19.0 / previous 18.0).
On Wednesday the European Union will release Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices data. In the US the Mortgage Bankers' Association index data as well as Redbook Store Sales, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data will be released.
Pivot: 1.223
Support: 1.223 1.2185 1.2155
Resistance: 1.23 1.2345 1.239
Scenario 1: long positions above 1.2230 with targets at 1.2300 & 1.2345 in extension.
Scenario 2: below 1.2230 look for further downside with 1.2185 & 1.2155 as targets.
Comment: the RSI shows upside momentum.
Gold
Gold settled slightly lower on Tuesday, supported by a stabilizing and slightly stronger US Dollar. While not being able to hold on to Monday’s high, downward movement was limited by disappointing Empire State General Business Conditions survey results as well as uncertainty about monetary policy of central banks such as ECB and Bank of Japan.
Global currencies as well as US domestic market results could be further determining for the gold price. For global markets the Bank of Canada interest rate decision on Wednesday as well as Chinese industrial production and GDP data due on Thursday could be also of interest.
Pivot: 1340
Support: 1330.5 1327.5 1322.5
Resistance: 1340 1345 1348.75
Scenario 1: short positions below 1340.00 with targets at 1330.50 & 1327.50 in extension.
Scenario 2: above 1340.00 look for further upside with 1345.00 & 1348.75 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is capped by a bearish trend line.
WTI Oil
Oil did not manage to hold onto its recent highs and fell by the highest amount in one trading day in this year so far. While the markets are concerned about increasing US supplies and Russia’s possible push to exit the OPEC+ production cuts, Russian Energy Ministry stressed that the current rise is not seen as stabilization by his country, but could be attributed to the winter cold.
On Wednesday the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release oil stockpile figures, followed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday.
Pivot: 64.3
Support: 63.38 63.05 62.65
Resistance: 64.3 64.9 65.57
Scenario 1: short positions below 64.30 with targets at 63.38 & 63.05 in extension.
Scenario 2: above 64.30 look for further upside with 64.90 & 65.57 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.
US 500
US equity indices paused the recent rally and closed lower despite overall positive but not significantly higher than estimated earnings data published. Citigroup’s (+0.30%) EPS were with $1.28 per share higher, than previous estimates of a $1.22 EPS, while General Motors (+0.34%) announced that its EPS for 2017 would be around $6 - $6.50, confirming with market estimates. Merck (NYSE:MRK) (+5.93%) closed significantly higher as positive results from late-stage lung cancer trial were announced.
Energy (US Energy ETF (NYSE:XLE) -1.28%) stocks had among the weakest performance of the day due to falling energy commodity prices, while health care (US Health Care +0.58%) stocks closed higher.
On Wednesday Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and ASML Holding (AS:ASML) will publish their earnings.
Pivot: 2796.5
Support: 2761.75 2752 2737
Resistance: 2796.5 2808.5 2820
Scenario 1: short positions below 2796.50 with targets at 2761.75 & 2752.00 in extension.
Scenario 2: above 2796.50 look for further upside with 2808.50 & 2820.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.